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Are hedge funds becoming regular asset managers or are regular managers pretending to be hedge funds?
December 2010
For Professional Investors
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1.
Rationale
2.
3. 4.
Risk Budgeting
Alpha Generation Summary
5.
Appendix
[Special Mention]
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Investment Process
Our objective is to maximise return (ER) adjusted to risk ()
High Information Content (IC), i.e. quality of investment insights and so winning strategies level one High Transmission Coefficient (TC), i.e. ensuring winning strategies are optimally deployed within the Portfolio Breadth of ideas ( n) to diversify risk
Need strong investment process and top quality staff Need sophisticated portfolio construction process and powerful analytics
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An enlarged opportunity set facilitates portfolio construction with the highest quality risk positions
Less Constrained vs Constrained Portfolios
Information Ratio (IR)
An unconstrained manager can achieve a certain level of target risk vs. benchmark without needing to use lower quality trading ideas
Risk Budget
Source: FFTW
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Benchmark
Replication
+
Overweight 30 Year Bond
_
Underweight 2 Year Bond
Net Duration
+
No Benchmark Risk
_
Source: FFTW
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Increased opportunity set for Absolute Return Strategies to exploit specific risk areas excluding unwanted risk
Specific Credit Risk of VW Sector Risk
CDS Indicies ++ / - +
CDS Indicies ++ / - + ++ / - +
Source: FFTW
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Information Ratio
Asia Ex Japan Equity 0.20 Currency Funds US Fixed Credit Asian Fixed Income
0.10
International Equity
Absolute-return uses a more dynamic asset allocation framework across a broad set of fixed-income instruments. Fixed Income median manager has historically delivered more Alpha versus their Equity counterparts
Source: Mercer (30/06/2005 30/06/2010)
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Investment Philosophy
Fixed income markets offer multiple sources of alpha which can be exploited by unconstrained investors. Alpha can be extracted from a superior understanding of complex securities, attractive risk premia in less efficient markets and anticipation of directional moves. Most fixed income markets are populated with a large number of sophisticated investors who can move capital quickly in search of opportunities. Therefore it is unlikely that any one market will provide superior opportunities for alpha for a prolonged period. The greatest returns per unit of risk generally come from diversifying across a wide variety of alpha opportunities. Diversification should come not just from exploiting varied markets but from employing different styles of portfolio management including quantitative and judgmental processes.
[Special Mention]
2. Risk budgeting
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Trend Following
Mean reverting
Carry
Event
Market is trending
Source: FFTW
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Structural Allocation of Targeted Risk Budgets Generation of Alpha by Specialised teams Specific allocation of risk to each strategy Optimal allocation of strategies relevant for portfolio Centralised execution by specialised trading desks Monitoring & fine tuning of portfolio structure
Global Rates
TOP DOWN RISK BUDGET ALLOCATION TOP DOWN ALLOCATION OF RISK SPECIFIC TO CLIENT GUIDELINES
Sector Rotation Emerging Market Debt Structured Securities Quant Strategies
Product Head
Currencies
Alpha teams
STRATEGY RISK STRATEGY RISK ALLOCATION STRATEGY RISK ALLOCATION & PORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTION ALLOCATION
PORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTION
PORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTION
EXECUTION EXECUTION
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Investment process
Risk budgets allocation process includes expected shortfall ratio (TE/ES).
Normal Distribution Fat tailed Distribution Increased losses
Source: FFTW. For illustrative purpose only
Tail risk with drawdown must be taken into account as they are important function of the risk reward experience.
Allocating risk as a function of the ratio of delivered and expected volatility alone does not account for tail risk.
Tracking error/expected shortfall aims to balance and diversify the risks of large tails
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Frequency of Events
Monthly Returns
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Investment process
Top down allocation of risk budgets
Global Interest Rates Allocation by 1/ES Ratio Total Tracking Error TE by Alpha Source
* With correlations taken into account
Currencies 30.3%
19.8%
100
152
100
35
45
70
503
Source: FFTW
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Alpha Strategies
Global Interest Rates Quantitative Interest Rates Sector Rotation Structured Securities Currencies Emerging Markets
Maximum Risk*
150 150 105 75 210 60
Information Ratio*
0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
346 500
519
0.723
250
Source: FFTW *All data is expressed in terms of basis points. The term Expected Return should not be perceived as a guarantee of future performance.
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Global Interest Rates Currencies Quantitative Interest Rates Emerging Markets Structured Securities Sector Rotation
Source: FFTW; Data taken for the period since inception July 2009 till 30th Sept 2010
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Risk Management
A multi-perspective approach
VaR (Value-at-Risk) Analysis
Quantify expected 95th percentile weekly loss Limitation: Many complex correlations are embedded in calculation which may not be reproduced going forward We seek to address this with scenario analysis
Scenario Analysis
Risk to forward looking, constructed scenarios Limitation: Scenarios are hypothetical and stylized, and havent necessarily occurred in the real world We seek to address this with historical stress analysis
Risk Management
Limitation: Describes what happens if the historical event reproduces itself, but does not indicate what can be done to mitigate the outcome of that
We seek to address this with marginal VaR
Marginal VaR
Decline or increase in VaR if the position is eliminated from the portfolio
Limitation: Does not say anything about tail risk We seek to address this with the measurement of short fall risk
[Special Mention]
3. Alpha Generation
Broader opportunity set
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UCITS III rules allows derivative positions to be managed on a risk basis rather than a duration basis, meaning a more complex array of investment strategies can be utilised.
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A forward starting swap can be implemented here if the investment manager does not share the same view as the market on a specific part of the curve
Source: Bloomberg
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To avoid near-term uncertainty, a 2 year 2 year forward trade could be constructed. This removes exposure to years 1 and 2 of the yield curve, instead focusing risk solely on years 3 and 4.
The graph displayed shows the average rate over years 3 and 4 that the investor would be exposed to.
Source: Bloomberg
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Source: Bloomberg
[Special Mention]
4. Summary
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Competitive Advantages
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Competitive Advantages
Absolute return management at FFTW
Multiple sources of alpha one highly diversified and differentiated investment strategy, built upon our core fixed income competencies Strategy combines fundamental and systematic approaches Investments are primarily made in high quality sectors Dedicated alpha teams skilled investment professionals with deep and broad experience, specializing in different market sectors Sophisticated risk management strong focus on risk management using VaR, expected shortfall and stress tests and a unique approach to monitoring risk allocations across strategies to ensure diversification and to limit potential for significant drawdowns Close alignment of interest with clients careful attention is paid to capacity, fee structures, guidelines and resources when designing multiple alpha strategy portfolio
[Special Mention]
5. Appendix
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Performance (%) BNP Paribas L1 V350 Daily Capitalized Eonia Index (RI) Excess return Risk indicators (annualised)
Last 36W Last 52W 1.32 0.02 1.32 4.06 1.29 0.02 1.29 2.97
Fund volatility (%) Benchmark volatility (%) Tracking error (%) Information ratio all figures gross of fees (in EUR) * annualised performance ** inception date: 13/07/2009 (annualised) Past performance or achievements are not indicative of current or future performance.
Source: FFTW, BNP Paribas as of 29 Oct, 2010. Past Performance achievement is not indicative of current or future performance
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Performance (net of fees I share) (%) BNP Paribas L1 V350 (I) Daily Capitalized Eonia Index (RI) Excess return Risk indicators (annualised)
Last 36W Last 52W 1.14 0.02 1.14 3.91 1.13 0.02 1.13 2.80
Fund volatility (%) Benchmark volatility (%) Tracking error (%) Information ratio * annualised performance ** inception date: 13/07/2009 (annualised) management fees: 0.20% Past performance or achievements are not indicative of current or future performance.
Source: FFTW, BNP Paribas as of 29 Oct, 2010. Past Performance achievement is not indicative of current or future performance
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Performance (net of fees C share) (%) BNP Paribas L1 V350 Daily Capitalized Eonia Index (RI) Excess return Risk indicators (annualised)
Last 36W Last 52W 1.32 0.02 1.32 3.57 1.29 0.02 1.29 2.48
Fund volatility (%) Benchmark volatility (%) Tracking error (%) Information ratio * annualised performance ** inception date: 13/07/2009 (annualised) management fees: 0.50% Past performance or achievements are not indicative of current or future performance.
Source: FFTW, BNP Paribas as of 29 Oct, 2010. Past Performance achievement is not indicative of current or future performance
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Cumulative Returns V350 5.00% 4.50% 4.00% 3.50% 3.00% 2.50% 2.00% 1.50% 1.00% 0.50% 0.00% -0.50%
Cumulative Returns Eonia 5.00% 4.50% 4.00% 3.50% 3.00% 2.50% 2.00% 1.50% 1.00% 0.50% 0.00% Apr-10 Aug-10
Aug-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Feb-10
Mar-10
May-10
Nov-09
Sep-10
Oct-09
Jan-10
Jun-10
Oct-10
Jul-10
Aug-10
Mar-10
Source: FFTW, Past Performance achievement is not indicative of current or future performance
May-10
Sep-10
Feb-10
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jun-10
Oct-10
Jul-10
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Germany, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Spain, Finland, France, Greece, Hong Kong, Ireland Rep, Italy, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Macao, Norway, Netherlands, Portugal, Slovaquia, Sweden, Switzerland and Czech Republic, For distribution in the UK - GBP Hedged Institutional share class (UKH share class ISIN code: LU0396582677).
Daily Institutions Cap: LU0429161291, Classic: LU0429159980
Per 1 September 2010, the name of the Fortis L Fund V350 has been changed into BNP Paribas L1 V350. At the same time, the Service Fee could have been changed. For more information , please contact your CRM or review the prospectus of the fund at www.bnpparibas-ip.com There is no guarantee or assurance that the performance objective will be achieved
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Macroeconomic
Assess key US, UK and international growth indicators, inflation indicators, monetary policies and fiscal policies Valuation Compare current pricing against historical experience and relative to other fixed income markets or asset classes Sentiment Indicators of market sentiment, positioning and risk appetite Inflation Risk
Monetary policy stance, plus inflation fighting/targeting credibility, influence inflation expectations and inflation-linked bond prices Uncertainty over the outlook for future growth, inflation or monetary policy helps determine whether to be structurally long or short volatility
Yield Curve
Yield curve movements tend to be mean-reverting within broadly stable ranges. Rapid interest rate movements lead to dislocations along the curve and exploitable inefficiencies
Volatility
Country Spreads
Cross-country strategies capture relative value between markets while minimizing directional risks
Derivatives
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Quantitative models are studied by back-testing the factors used for possible inclusion within an existing or new quantitative model. The resulting strategies are uncorrelated with subjective strategies.
Instruments used: 10-year Futures Models used: Global Fixed Income - a structured econometric factor model fit to monthly data; currently employs three factors: change in unemployment, yield curve shape and real yields Yield Curve Carry Driver uses the slope of the yield curve to forecast future prices by feeding it into an optimiser targeting a specific risk target
Changes in risk appetite
The strategy is based on observation that a key driver of bond excess returns is the slope of the yield curve. Hence the idea of buying steeper curves and selling flatter ones
Bond markets tend to rise (fall) when risk appetite falls (increases). Go long a basket of global bonds when risk appetite is in a falling trend, and short when risk appetite is rising
Risk Appetite the model is reliant on risk appetite across many asset classes.
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MacroEconomic
Valuation
Sentiment
0 0 0
0 ++
++ +
CMBS
IG Credit High Yield
+
+
0
+
0
0
Scale -- , - , 0 , + , ++
Zero rates for longer liquidity to finance businesses, and also investors search for yield
Senior money center banks offer 160 - 260 bps, compared to A industrials of 120 bps.
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Structural
Investor preferences for securities that are priced close to par can lead to deviations from market rationality
Liquidity
Investor preferences for horizon holding periods and marketability can lead to pricing anomalies
Volatility
Investor risk aversion can lead to risk premiums that may be unwarranted
Complexity
Investors may avoid securities because of their complexity and the difficulty of measuring risk leads to opportunities for more sophisticated investors
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One-off policy changes can significantly alter the expected return of holding a particular currency
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Currencies
Opportunities exist due to appreciation against hard currencies and relative value opportunities related to drivers of capital flows, such as terms of trade dynamics, monetary policy expectations, financing needs, risk aversion and technical positions
Local markets have become more liquid and deeper, yield curves behave in different ways across countries depending on central bank movements. Today's EM yield curves are more variable than ever leaving scope for yield curve strategies in local debt Companies with strong business models that are benefiting from a favorable economic environment show attractive valuations against corporate bonds in the developed world
Long-term spread tightening trend in emerging hard currency bonds provides relative value opportunities resulting from different economic cycles between countries
41
Source: FFTW. AUM (assets under management) data includes approximately US$48 million in advisory assets and may as a result differ from AUM data disclosed on Form ADV. Further, AUM data is generally calculated based on current or recent market values. However, certain assets (including guaranteed investment contracts) are marked at book value. Such assets may represent a material portion of assets under management from time to time, so different asset pricing methodologies may result in different calculations of assets under management. As of September 30, 2010, the AUM data represents assets managed and/or advised by Fischer Francis Trees & Watts, Inc., Fischer Francis Trees & Watts UK Limited, Fischer Francis Trees & Watts Singapore Limited and fixed income assets of the Chicago office of Fortis Investment Management USA, Inc.
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GLOBAL CIO, FFTW COO, INVESTMENT TEAM INVESTMENT RISK & PERFORMANCE TEAM EMERGING DEBT Advanced EM Asian Fixed Income Corporate Debt Eastern European FI External & Local Debt Reporting directly to the CEO Independent, but interactive Risk Management Function
PRODUCT SOLUTIONS DIVISION US US Core US Core Plus US Long Duration US MBS US TIPS GLOBAL Domestic Plus Global Aggregate Global Inflation Global Sovereign Currencies SHORT DURATION & ABSOLUTE RETURN Absolute Return Enhanced Cash Money Markets Short Duration Stable Value
QUANTITATIVE RESEARCH Quantitative Strategies Risk Budget (Models) Innovation Macro Research
PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT Coordinating Portfolio Management function across Product Groups ALPHA TEAMS
GLOBAL RATES
SECTOR ROTATION
CURRENCIES
EMERGING DEBT
STRUCTURED SECURITIES
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Investment team
Head of Short Duration & Absolute Return Products Daniel James Short Duration & Absolute Return Portfolio Managers J. Finley Global Rates Alpha Team Guy Williams, Team Head & Global CIO Sector Rotation Alpha Team Dave Marmon, Team Head Structured Securities Alpha Team John Carey, CFA, Team Head Currency Alpha Team Adnan Akant, PhD, Team Head Emerging Debt Alpha Team Sergio Trigo Paz, Team Head Money Market Alpha Team William Anderson, Team Head Joann Chia Laurent Develay Chris Kelly Judy Leong Swee Leong Raphael Marchal Adeline Ng, CFA Jane Yu Karen Chen, CFA George Rudawski, CFA Bruce Walbridge Kausik Barua Iris Hanking Jane Song, CFA Alan Bridges, CFA Nic Hoogewijs, CFA Iwan Lont, CFA Frederic Mackel Cedric Scholtes Jenny Yiu, CFA T. Hockin K. Kehres K. ODonnell
Credit Research & Analysis BNP Paribas Asset Management New York Credit Analysts
Raza Jaffrey
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Contacts
For further information please contact:
Daniel James Head of Short Duration & Absolute Return Michael Victoros Investment Specialist Fixed Income +44 (0) 207 0637617 Daniel.james@fftw.com +44 (0) 207 0637746 Michael.victoros@bnpparibas.com
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Disclaimers
This material is issued and has been prepared by Fischer Francis Trees & Watts UK Ltd, a member of BNP Paribas Investment Partners (BNPP IP)*. This material is produced for information purposes only and does not constitute: an offer to buy nor a solicitation to sell, nor shall it form the basis of or be relied upon in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever or any investment advice.
This material makes reference to certain financial instruments (the Financial Instrument(s)) authorised and regulated in its/their jurisdiction(s) of incorporation.
No action has been taken which would permit the public offering of the Financial Instrument(s) in any other jurisdiction, except as indicated in the most recent prospectus, offering document or any other information material, as applicable, of the relevant Financial Instrument(s) where such action would be required, in particular, in the United States, to US persons (as such term is defined in Regulation S of the United States Securities Act of 1933). Prior to any subscription in a country in which such Financial Instrument(s) is/are registered, investors should verify any legal constraints or restrictions there may be in connection with the subscription, purchase, possession or sale of the Financial Instrument(s).
This material contains information about BNP Paribas L1 V350 Fund (the Fund). BNP Paribas L1 is an open-ended UCITS III compliant investment company registered in Luxembourg, and is a Recognised Fund under Section 264 of the UKs Financial Services and Markets Act 2000. UK investors should note that some of the protections afforded by the UK regulatory system, including the Financial Services Compensation Scheme, are not available. Investors considering subscribing for the Financial Instrument(s) should read carefully the most recent prospectus, offering document or other information material and consult the Financial Instrument(s) most recent financial reports. The prospectus, offering document or other information of the Financial Instrument(s) are available from your local BNPP IP correspondents, if any, or from the entities marketing the Financial Instrument(s).
Opinions included in this material constitute the judgment of Fischer Francis Trees & Watts UK Ltd (FFTW UK) at the time specified and may be subject to change without notice. FFTW UK is not obliged to update or alter the information or opinions contained within this material. Investors should consult their own legal and tax advisors in respect of legal, ac-counting, domicile and tax advice prior to investing in the Financial Instrument(s) in order to make an independent determination of the suitability and consequences of an investment therein, if permitted. Please note that different types of investments, if contained within this material, involve varying degrees of risk and there can be no assurance that any specific investment may either be suitable, appropriate or profitable for a client or prospective clients investment portfolio.
Given the economic and market risks, there can be no assurance that the Financial Instrument(s) will achieve its/their investment objectives. Returns may be affected by, amongst other things, investment strategies or objectives of the Financial Instrument(s) and material market and economic conditions, including interest rates, market terms and general market conditions. The different strategies applied to the Financial Instruments may have a significant effect on the results portrayed in this material. Past performance is not a guide to future performance and the value of the investments in Financial Instrument(s) may go down as well as up. Investors may not get back the amount they originally invested. The performance data, as applicable, reflected in this material, do not take into account the commissions, costs incurred on the issue and redemption or taxes. This document is directed only at person(s) who have professional experience in matters relating to investments (relevant persons). Any investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to and will be engaged in only with Professional Clients as defined in the rules of the Financial Services Authority. Any person who is not a relevant person should not act or rely on this document or any of its contents. Fischer Francis Trees & Watts UK Limited a BNP Paribas company is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. Registered in England No: 979759, registered office: 5 Aldermanbury Square, London, England, EC2V 7BP, United Kingdom. It is also registered with the US Securities and Exchange Commission as an investment adviser under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended. * BNP Paribas Investment Partners is the global brand name of the BNP Paribas groups asset management services. The individual asset management entities within BNP Paribas Investment Partners if specified herein, are specified for information only and do not necessarily carry on business in your jurisdiction. For further information, please contact your locally licensed Investment Partner.