Академический Документы
Профессиональный Документы
Культура Документы
The Diagnosis Key reasons behind current and previous energy crises: 1. Lack of long-term integrated planning and implementation for last 40 years 2. Ignored indigenous resources 3. Dependence on imported furnace oil 4. Lack of political will to reform / deregulate
1
Major international companies driven away by unattractive policy incentives (2001 Petroleum Policy)
Hydel largely ignored after 1970s, sidetracked by politics
12 10
8 6 4 2 0
1994-95 1996-97 1998-99 2000-01 2002-03 2004-05 2006-07 2008-09 2010-11
Source: State Bank of Pakistan
Gas must be allocated on the basis of efficiency and consumer interest and not on political whims
6
CRISIS TIME
7
Shortfall 5,700 MW
Current Avg GDP Additional De-rated Scenario Growth to Demand capacity 2025 by 2025 Low growth 20,000 MW Normal growth 4.7% 40,000 MW 55,000 MW
6.0%
14,000
12,000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
High growth
6.5%
65,000 MW
Generation
Demand
Power deficit may rise to over 11,000 MW in next five years with business as usual
Peak Demand
32,000
Peak Generation
Projected peak demand at 6% p.a. growth
28,000
24,000 (6,400 MW) 20,000 (5,700 MW) 16,000 12,000 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13
About 2,500 MW of ongoing, funded projects should come online between FY11-15
Few sizable projects due to circular debt Neelum Jhelum delayed further
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
9
Source: NTDC National Power System Expansion Plan 2011, NEPRA State of Industry Report 2011, PPIB, WAPDA public documents
(1.6 bcfd)
(3.5 bcfd)
(5.2 bcfd)
2016-17
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
2020-21
10
Based on NTDCs expansion plan, adding 40,000 MW by 2025 would require about $6 bn capital per year1
Without making the sector financially viable, circular debt menace will not go away Then where will the necessary capital come from? Gas Crisis How will the gas shortfall be met? Iran Pakistan pipeline gas priced at $11-12 / MMBTU
11
CRISIS TIME
We are standing at the edge of an Energy Abyss at a time when we are heavily indebted and fiscally stressed
Energy import bill will rise from $12 BN to $60-120 BN by 2025 depending on oil prices1 Gas imports will rise from 0% to 45% of energy mix1
We will be unable to provide the energy required for Agriculture or Industry except at an exorbitant cost
This will play havoc with inflation and economic growth Poor and middle class households will be unable to afford energy
1 Pakistan Business Council
12
2. 3.
4.
5.
For example:
Automatic disconnection after 30 days of non-payment
16
17
Non-Recoveries
35%
30% 25% 20%
15%
10% 5% 0% IESCO FESCO GEPCO LESCO MEPCO QESCO HESCO PESCO
22
Source: NEPRA State of Industry Report 2011
Capacity to Convert
Capital Cost
(MW)
($ MM)
2,022
1,011
2,605
1,303
4,627
2,314
Savings
Fuel Savings ($MM) 1,630 (208) 2,714 (268) 4,344 (475)
1,422
2,446
3,868
23
Year 2
14.5% 40 91.5% 25 65
Year 3 Year 4
12% 60 93.3% 37 1,500 120 217 10% 75 95% 50 4,500 350 475
24
32
3. Wrong Fuel Mix Two thirds of electricity from oil and gas
Electricity Generation by Source 2009-10 Total: 95,608 GWh
Nuclear / Other 3%
Hydel 29% Natural Gas 29%
World Average
Pakistan
Source: Pakistan Energy Year Book 2010, Sindh Engro Coal Mining Company presentation
25
10.5
7.7
22.6 15.3
22.6
Capacity Charge
Source: Crosby Capital Note: Calculations assume funding in local debt. GENCO fully depreciated plant.
Add 2,000 mmcfd of domestic gas within 5 years by facilitating and incentivizing existing and new investors: Premium for additional (in-fill) gas from depleting fields Increased wellhead price for new conventional gas discoveries Premium above wellhead price for tight / shale gas discoveries
4.0%
2.0%
OECD Countries
Global Benchmark
SSGC
SNGPL
SNGC/SNGPL Combined
33
Governance reform, decisive leadership, macroeconomic stability and sanctity of contracts required to unlock capital flows
Fresh lending largely dependent on foreign sources Local banks exposure to power sector already at 30% Raising the required level of capital is a Herculean taskbut the challenge is surmountable with all-out effort Pakistan attracted 3.2% p.a. of GDP (mainly offshore) into the Power sector in 1994-97
India has three IDFIs, China has worlds largest ($700 bn)
Subscribers would include Overseas Pakistanis, domestic and international investors, sovereign funds, etc.
35
PTIs vision
By tackling the five key issues, i.e. 1. 2. 3. 4. Poor governance Circular debt Wrong fuel mix Gas crisis
5.
Financing
Resolution of the energy crisis becomes possible in the following manner and timeframe..
36
4,172 Supply Gap with Business (1,605) as Usual Pipeline / LNG imports Additional domestic gas from existing fields Domestic tight gas Reduction in unaccounted for gas Additional Gas (cumulative) Gap with PTIs actions -
(1,623)
100 50 150
(1,879)
500 200 100 800
(2,496)
500 500 500 150 1,650
(3,038)
1,000 500 500 200 2,200
(3,541)
1,500 1,000 1,000 200 3,700
(1,605)
(1,473)
(1,079)
(846)
(838)
159
37
22,351
16,523 (5,828) -
23,692
17,313 (6,379) 1,000 100 -
25,114
17,801 (7,312) 2,000 500 -
26,621
18,001 (8,619) 2,500 1,000 500
28,218
18,001 (10,216) 2,500 1,000 1,000
29,911
18,488 (11,422) 2,500 1,500 2,000
Supply
Business as Usual Gap Existing offline capacity brought back online Energy efficiency / small scale generation Gas IPPs (on LNG)
(5,828)
1,100 (5,279)
2,500 (4,812)
4,000 (4,619)
500
1,075 500 6,575 (3,641)
1,700
2,485 1,500 11,685 263
38
Fundamentally transform energy mix and begin Pakistans transition to an energy secure state
41
Annex
42
Installed wind Mean wind speed Tariff rate capacity (MW) at 50 m (m/s) (PKR / kWh) 177 4.9-6.6 7.0
2,005 1,576 4.3-7.0 5.2-8.4 7.1 7.4
28 231
2,202 1,353 5,503 6
4.4-8.1 5.0-6.3
4.3-6.6 4.0-5.7 4.5-7.4 4.0-10.9
7.3 8.7
6.8-10.1 7.7-8.2 6.8 17.3
44
45
46
Notified tariff % of Total % of Total (Rs. / kWh) Consumption Subsidy 1.87 3.43 8.58% 4.54 8.97 16.33% 6.86 22.03 27.32% 10.65 6.25 1.83% 13.29 3.59 6.50-13.00 7.18 5.80% 6.50-12.25 26.2 12.30% 4.55-10.11 15.48 18.20% 6.25-11.31 3.32 2.20% 0.03 3.90% 96.48% 96.45%
47
Gas Tariffs
Religious / Educational / Health / Govt. /Army offices: Rs 123 Rs 496 (depending on use)
Fertilizer:
Fertilizer: GENCOs:
IPPs:
50
PEPCO receivables
Receivables of PEPCO: Year-Wise Comparison (Rs. BN)
346 259
74
267
91 176
285
172 127 158
Private
174
172
52 120 185
Govt.
Dec 07
Dec 08
Dec 09
Dec 10
Nov 11
51