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PRESENTATION ON

BAYESS THEOREM

Bayes Theorem
Let A1 and A2 be two mutually exclusive and exhaustive events: A1 A2 E A A A1 A2 U Let both A1 and A2 have a subevent ( EA1 and EA2 , respectivelly. The event E EA1 EA2 is of our special interest. It can occur only when A1 and A2 occurs.
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Bayes Theorem
Let we are given a priori information that E has occurred and the conditional probabilities P{E|A1} and P{E|A2} (a priori probabilities) are assumed to be known. The Bayess problem is formulated as follows: how likely is that A1 and A2 has occurred because of the occurrence of E (a posteriori probabilities)?
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Bayes Theorem
P{ A1} 1 P{ A2 } 2 P E | A1 p1 ; P E | A2 p2 P A1 | E ? P A2 | E ? A1 A2 U ; A1 A2
a priori probabilities

a posteriori probabilities

Bayes Theorem
Since E EA1 EA2 , then for the mutually exclusive events:
P{E} P{EA1} P{EA2 }
1
p1

P{ A1}P{E | A1} P{ A2 }P{E | A2 }


P A1 E P A1 P E | A1 1 p1 P A1 | E P E P{ A1}P{E | A1} P{ A2 }P{E | A2 } 1 p1 2 p2
1 p1 2
p2

2 p2

P A2 E P A2 P E | A2 2 p2 P A2 | E P E P{ A1}P{E | A1} P{ A2 }P{E | A2 } 1 p1 2 p2


1 p1 2 p2
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OPTICAL COMMUNICATION SYSTEM

emits electrons

X:random variable for number of electrons counted during a T second interval, To transmit a binary 1 To transmit a binary 0 light source turn ON for T seconds
light source turn OFF for T seconds

CONDITIONAL PROBABLITY
PX| 0(k) = Pr(X =k|0 sent)
PX| 1(k) = Pr(X =k|1 sent)

Probability of electron emmision when 0 is sent


Probability of electron emmision when `1 is sent

WHERE; Ro and R1 are the average no. of electrons observed when 0 is sent and when 1 is sent ,respectively

WHAT WE WANT TO KNOW?


Assume Ro < R1 , i.e : electrons emitted when 0 is sent are less
Now we calculate number of electrons emitted during each T interval and then must decide whether a 0 or 1 was sent Let K:number of electrons observed at the reciever So we need to calculate probablity of 0 or 1 being sent if K electrons are received

How?
1st the Posteriori probability of Each bit is calculated
PX| 0(k) = Pr(X =k|0 sent)

PX| 1(k) = Pr(X =k|1 sent)

2nd we decide that binary 1 was sent:

THIS IS REFERRED TO MAXIMUM A POSTERIORI (MAP)

Total Probability Theorem


Probability of k electron emission =

Bayes Theorem

Applying Bayes theorem;

Since the denominators of both the posteriori probabilities are the same , we decided that a 1 is sent then

After algebric calculations we get;

So if the above equation satisfies than 1 was sent otherwise 0

Recievers accuracy

Let Xo be the threshold which with we compare X to decide which data bit was sent

So if X>Xo ----1 was sent X<Xo ----0 was sent

Plot of the probability of error as a funtion of R1 and Ro as r parameter