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M. Arif Goheer
Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC) Islamabad Pakistan
GECAFS IGP CPW&F and APN Launch Workshops Kathmandu-Nepal, June 27-30, 2006
Climate Change
the greatest challenge facing the world at the beginning of the century
World Economic Forum Davos, Switzerland 2000
Depending on the level of GHG emissions and concentration in the atmosphere, the average global temperature would rise between 1.4 oC 5.8 oC over the 21st Century
Climate-Water-Food Linkages
Climate
Temperature
Rainfall
CO2 level
Evapo-transpiration (ET) Crop Water Demand Canal/ground water Water Availability Agriculture (Crop Yield)
Photosynthetic Activity
IPCC, 2001
Semi-arid areas
Crop models showed that increase in temperature of 0.9 and 1.8C resulted in reduction in length of wheat growing season by 4 and 8 days respectively
At 0.9C increase in temperature, wheat grain yield increased by 2.5% whereas at 1.8C increase, the grain yield decreased by 4% The increase in temp. would reduce the productivity of rice crop due to heat stress and reduction in growing season length
Arid areas
Crop modeling studies showed a non significant trend in wheat yields under increased temperature scenarios (0.9C and 1.8C) Wheat straw yields were reduced by 7% and 12% with temperature increases of 0.9C by 2020 and 1.8C by 2050
Shift in spatial crop boundaries will have enormous economic and social impact.
e.g. Rice transplantation, Cotton picking etc.
danger of depletion of aquifer due to injudicious pumping increased cost of cultivation soil salinization due to poor quality ground water
Cropping Seasons
Rabi
November-April
Wheat, Lentil, Chickpea
Kharif
May-October
Rice, Maize, Mungbean, Cotton
Agricultural productivity
Crop
Wheat
Rice Maize
Yield
2262 kg/ha
1836 kg/ha 1768 kg/ha
Sugarcane Cotton
Fodder
Cotton
Fruits Vegetable Meat
1.8*
5.1 4.5 2.1
3.3*
13.8 12.2 5.7
4.4*
18.3 16.2 7.6
18.00*
50.0 20.0 5.0
25.0*
60.0 50.0 14.0
Milk
* Million Bales
15.3
41.5
55.0
50.0
125
Wheat & Rice Simulation Results using DSSAT based CERES-Wheat & CERES-Rice models
Semi-arid areas Arid areas Humid area Sub-humid areas
360
550
360
550
Yield (kg/ha)
Yield (kg/ha)
5000 4000
3500 3000
Yield (Kg/ha)
Yield (Kg/ha)
Yield (kg/ha)
4000 3000 2000 1000 0 1 2 3 4 5 Tem perature Increase (C) 2 irri_360ppm 2 irri_550ppm
4irri_360ppm 4irri_550ppm
Arid Areas
4000
Yield (kg/ha)
4irri_360ppm 4irri_550ppm
Baseline 1 C
(increase over baseline)
2 C 3 C 4 C 5 C
Effect of Increase in Temperature and CO2levels on Rice yields in Semi-arid areas of Punjab
5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1C 2C 375ppm 3C Temperature 4C 550 ppm 5C
Baseline Yield
Yield (kg/ha)
Effect of increase in Temperature on GSL of Rice in Semi arid areas of Punjab (Faisalabad)
(Cv. Basmati Super transplanted in 1st Week of July)
Temperature Baseline
(increase over baseline)
1 C 2 C
3 C
4 C
5 C
92
89
Conclusions
Rise in CO2 level only has positive impact on wheat yield Rise in Temperature shows negative impact on wheat yield But it could be mitigated if CO2 level = 550 ppm Negative impact of Rise in Temperature on yield could also be mitigated by increasing number of Irrigations (but)