Computer Operations Management by

Sfenrianto
Session 5

Decision Making For Computer Operation Management

(Forecasting Method)

FORECASTING
Forecasting is a prediction of what will occur in the future. Although impossible to predict future exactly forecast can provide reliable guidelines for decision making

Moving Average

The forecast for the next period is the arithmetic average of the sum all new demands priods

Moving Average

Computed for specific period

MA5

D
i 1

90 110 130 75 50 91 5

Moving Average With POM

3 Month

5 Month

Weighted Moving Average

The weights must (adding up to time - .priode)

Ft = w 1 A t-1 + w 2 A t-2 + w 3 A t-3 +...+w n A t-n

Week 1 2 3 4 Demand 650 678 720

Determine the 3-period weighted moving average forecast for period 4 ? Weights (adding up to time - .priode): t-1: .3 t-2: .2 t-3: .1
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Solution
Week 1 2 3 4 Demand Forecast 650 678 720 694,3

F4 = .3(720)+.2(678)+.1(650) /6

Exercise:

Determine the 2-period weighted moving average forecast for period 6 ?

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Exercise: Solution
F6 = .5 (325) + .4(300)/9 =313,8889

Try to Prove Forecast For : F5 = ? ; F4 = ?; F3=?;

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Exponential Smoothing Example

The forecast is the sum of the previous forecast, constant a (0.0 and 1.0) of and previous demand Ft = Ft-1 + (At-1 - Ft-1)

Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Demand 820 775 680 655 750 802 798 689 775

Determine exponential smoothing forecasts for periods 2 through 10 using =.10 and =.60.
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Exponential Smoothing Example

?
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Exponential Smoothing : Solution

Ft = Ft-1 + a(At-1 - Ft-1); a = 0.1 F1=D1 F2=(820) + 0.1(820 820) = 820 F3=(820) + 0.1(775 820) = 815,50 F4 = ? ; F5 = ?; F6 = ?; F7 = ?; F8 = ?; F9 = ?
F10 =(776.88) + 0.1(775 776.88) =776,69

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Exponential Smoothing : Solution

Ft = Ft-1 + a(At-1 - Ft-1); a = 0.6 F1=D1 F2=(820) + 0.6(820 820) = 820 F3=(820) + 0.6(775 820) = 793 F4 = ? ; F5 = ?; F6 = ?; F7 = ?; F8 = ?; F9 = ? F10 =(728.1989) + 0.6(775 728.1989) =756,27

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Linear Regression

Regression Equation This model is of the form: Y = a + bX Y = dependent variable X = independent variable
a = y-axis intercept b = slope of regression line

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Linear Regression

Constants a and b The constants a and b are computed using the following equations:

x y- x xy a= n x -( x) n xy- x y b= 2 2 n x -( x)
2 2 2

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Linear Regression

EXAMPLE

Forecasting ?

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Linear Regression

Constants a and b The constants a is computed using the following equations:

a=

x y- x xy n x -( x)
2 2 2
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a = ((506 * 950) (66 * 5205))/(( 11 * 506)- (66 * 66)) a = ((480700)(343530))/((5566)-(4356)) = 137170/1210

= 113,3636

Linear Regression

Constants a and b The constants b is computed using the following equations:

b=

n xy- x y n x -( x)
2 2

b = ((11 * 5205) (66 * 950))/(( 11 * 506)- (66 * 66)) b = ((57255)(62700))/((5566)-(4356)) = -5455/1210

= -4,5
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Linear Regression

Regression Equation
Y = a + bX

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Linear Regression With POM

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Latihan : Moving Average

Computed for specific period And Using Software POM

Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Demand 3-Week 6-Week 650 678 720 785 682.67 859 727.67 920 788.00 850 854.67 768.67 758 876.33 802.00 892 842.67 815.33 920 833.33 844.00 789 856.67 866.50 21 844 867.00 854.83

Latihan: Linear Regression

Suatu Perusahaan mengeluarkan biaya untuk pembelian peralatan komputer selama 6 tahun sbb: Biaya (Ratus Juta) 2.5 2.8 2.9 Biaya (Ratus Juta) 3.2 3.3 3.4

Year 1 2 3

Year 4 5 6

Hitung Keuntungan Yang diperoleh th 1 s/d 12

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Latihan
Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Demand 650 678 720 785 859 920 850 758 892 920 789 844

Tentukan Forecasting dalam bentuk:

1. Moving Average untuk priode 4 minggu 2. Weighted Moving Average untuk forcasting priode 13 untuk 4 periode 3. Exponential Smoothing dng a =0,5 untuk forcasting 13 4. Linear Regression untuk: - forcasing 2, 10 dan 13

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