Академический Документы
Профессиональный Документы
Культура Документы
Chapter 12
12-1
Chapter Topics
Components of Decision Making Decision Making without Probabilities Decision Making with Probabilities Decision Analysis with Additional Information
Utility
12-2
A payoff table is a means of organizing a decision situation, presenting the payoffs from different decisions given the various states of nature.
12-3
Figure 12.1
12-4
Table 12.2
minimax regret
Hurwicz
equal likelihood
12-5
12-6
12-7
12-8
Decision
Apartment building Office building
Values
$50,000(.4) + 30,000(.6) = 38,000 $100,000(.4) - 40,000(.6) = 16,000
Warehouse
Office building
Warehouse
12-10
Decision (Purchase) Office building Apartment building Apartment building Apartment building Apartment building
12-11
Exhibit 12.1
Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall
12-12
Exhibit 12.2
Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall
12-13
Exhibit 12.3
Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall
12-14
Exhibit 12.4
12-15
Table 12.7
EV(Apartment) = $50,000(.6) + 30,000(.4) = 42,000 EV(Office) = $100,000(.6) - 40,000(.4) = 44,000 EV(Warehouse) = $30,000(.6) + 10,000(.4) = 22,000
Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall
12-16
EOL(Apartment) = $50,000(.6) + 0(.4) = 30,000 EOL(Office) = $0(.6) + 70,000(.4) = 28,000 EOL(Warehouse) = $70,000(.6) + 20,000(.4) = 50,000
Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall
Table 12.8
12-17
Exhibit 12.5
Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall
12-18
Exhibit 12.6
Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall
12-19
Exhibit 12.7
Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall
12-20
12-21
12-22
12-23
Exhibit 12.8
Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall
12-24
12-25
12-26
12-27
12-28
Exhibit 12.9
Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall
12-29
Decision Making with Probabilities Decision Trees with Excel and TreePlan (1 of 4)
Exhibit 12.10
12-30
Decision Making with Probabilities Decision Trees with Excel and TreePlan (2 of 4)
Exhibit 12.11
Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall
12-31
Decision Making with Probabilities Decision Trees with Excel and TreePlan (3 of 4)
Exhibit 12.12
Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall
12-32
Decision Making with Probabilities Decision Trees with Excel and TreePlan (4 of 4)
Exhibit 12.13
12-33
12-34
12-35
12-36
12-37
Exhibit 12.14
Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall
12-38
Exhibit 12.15
12-39
Table 12.11
Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall
12-40
12-41
Decision Analysis with Additional Information Decision Trees with Posterior Probabilities (1 of 4)
Decision tree with posterior probabilities differ from earlier versions in that: Two new branches at beginning of tree represent report outcomes. Probabilities of each state of nature are posterior probabilities from Bayes rule.
12-43
Decision Analysis with Additional Information Decision Trees with Posterior Probabilities (2 of 4)
12-44
Decision Analysis with Additional Information Decision Trees with Posterior Probabilities (3 of 4)
EV (apartment building) = $50,000(.923) + 30,000(.077)
= $48,460 EV (strategy) = $89,220(.52) + 35,000(.48) = $63,194
12-45
Decision Analysis with Additional Information Decision Trees with Posterior Probabilities (4 of 4)
12-46
Decision Analysis with Additional Information Computing Posterior Probabilities with Tables
12-47
Decision Analysis with Additional Information Computing Posterior Probabilities with Excel
Exhibit 12.16
Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall
12-48
12-49
12-50
12-51
12-52
12-53
Status quo
Sell
650,000
980,000
Expand
Status quo Sell
12-55
Sell
Step 2 (part b): Determine Decisions with EV and EOL. Expected value decision: Maintain status quo
Expand
Status quo Sell
12-56
Sell
Step 3 (part c): Compute EVPI. EV given perfect information = 1,300,000(.7) + 500,000(.3) = $1,060,000 EV without perfect information = $1,300,000(.7) - 150,000(.3) = $865,000 EVPI = $1.060,000 - 865,000 = $195,000
Copyright 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall
12-57
12-58
12-59
12-60
12-61