Understand

and use the vocabulary of probability and the probability scale Understand and use estimates or measures of probability List all outcomes for single events, and for two successive events, in a systematic way and derive related probabilities.

Probability is about estimating how likely (probable) something is to happen. Probability can be used to predict, for example, the outcome when throwing a die (dice) or tossing a coin.

 We

often use words to describe how probable we think it is that an event will take place. For example, we might say that it is likely to be sunny tomorrow, or that it is very unlikely to snow in Malaysia. The words we use can be placed in a Probability Scale.

 The

terms we will use are impossible, very unlikely, unlikely, evens, likely, very likely and certain.

 You

buy a lottery ticket and win the jackpot. You toss a coin and get tails. Christmas will fall on 25 December this year. You throw a die and get 6 It will rain in the last week of May.

 Now

think up your own examples to fit each of the terms in the scale. Ask a number of students to choose the best term to describe your examples. Does everyone agree? Do you think these terms are a good way to describe probability?

 In

Maths we need to be more precise about how likely something (an outcome) is to happen. The probability of an outcome can have any value between 0 (impossible) and 1 (certain). It may be a fraction, decimal or percentage.

 When

different outcomes of an event are equally likely (for example, getting a 6 when you throw a die), you can use a formula to calculate the probability of outcomes.

Probability of an outcome =

 If

you toss 2 coins there are four possible outcomes - 2 heads, a head and a tail, a tail and a head and 2 tails. This means that the probability of getting 2 heads is 1/4 or 0.25 or 25%. Notice that there are 2 ways of getting a head and a tail so the probability of this outcome is 2/4 or or 0.5 or 50%. The other outcome is 2 tails with a probability of .

 If

we add the probabilities of all the possible outcomes together the total is 1 (0.25 + 0.5 + 0.25). The sum of the probabilities of all the different outcomes will always equal 1.

Event

Outcome

Throwing a fair 1 six-sided die Choosing a card 2 from a full pack without looking Choosing a card 3 from a full pack without looking Choosing a card 4 from a full pack without looking

an even number a heart

Number of ways to get this outcome 3

13

Probability Total number of possible outcomes 6 3/6 or 1/2

52 13/52 or 1/4

not a heart 39

52

39/52 or 3/4

a queen

52

4/52 or 1/13

Throwing a fair 5 six-sided die

A number 2 less than 3

2/6 or 1/3

 Notice

that in order to make all outcomes equally probable we need to use a fair die and to choose a card without looking. Also if you add the probabilities of 2 and 3 the answer = 1. This is always true the probability of something happening + the probability of it not happening always equals 1.

 What

is the probability of choosing a card from a pack which is not a queen? What is the probability of throwing an odd number with a fair six-sided die?

 These

are relatively simple examples. When things get more complicated it is necessary to list all outcomes systematically. For example if we throw three coins what are the different outcomes? Complete the following table and work out the probability of getting two heads and a tail (in any order)

Outcome number

Coin 1

Coin 2

Coin 3

1
2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Head
Head

Head
Head

Head
Tail

 You

can estimate probabilities from experiment by repeating an event a number of times and recording the outcomes. The more times you repeat the more accurate your estimate will be.

 You

drop a drawing pin from the same height 1000 times. The pin lands up 324 times. The pin lands down 676 times. The probability of the pin landing up = 324/1000 = 32.4%

 100

footballs are checked and 20 are found to have punctures. Calculate the probability of a football having a puncture when chosen at random. The probability = number of footballs with punctures/total number of footballs = 20/100 = 0.2