NJ Senate Race 2014:

Booker Enjoying Strong Early Lead

January 22, 2013 Julie Martinez Ortega, J.D., Ph.D.

Polled NJ Democrats, Jan. 2013

Registered Democrats in NJ (Closed Primary) Jan. 7-9, 2013 1,170 respondents Margin of Error +/- 2.9% Automated Telephone Interviews New technique allowed automated calls to cell phones Worked with Merriman River Group

BOOKER INCREDIBLY POPULAR AMONG NJ DEMS

81

72
16 3 15 13 Booker

68 22 10 Menendez

65 32
3 Christie

63 24 13

Positive Negative Unsure

Obama

Lautenberg

and has the lowest negatives

Booker Beats Lautenberg

By more than 2 to 1
Primary 2014
60% 50% 40% 48%

31%
30%

21%
20% 10%

0%
Booker Lautenberg Unsure

Gender Doesnt Explain Bookers Strength

60% 51% 50% 40% 30% 22% 21% Men Women 49%

20% 10% 0%
Booker Lautenberg

Race & Ethnicity Dont Explain It

64% 49% 34% 22% 15% 23% 23% 49% Black Latino Asian White

Booker

Lautenberg

Policy Positions Dont Explain Bookers Strength

80% 67%

74% 63%

75% 67%

75% 68%

78% 68%

78% 71%

Immigration

Jobs & Economy

Middle Class

Low Wage Education Gun Control Funding

Booker

Lautenberg

NJ Dems Concerned About Lautenbergs Age

75%

68%
50%

25%
24% 8%

0%
Concerned Not concerned Unsure

Lautenbergs Age
Majority of those concerned about Lautenbergs age would vote for Booker A mere 1/3 of those not concerned about his age support Lautenberg

27% 16% 57%

31%

32%

36% Booker Lautenberg

Unsure

Booker Crushes Pallone

and leads all other non-incumbent candidates combined by 2 to 1 margin
Primary 2014
8%

28%
Pallone Booker Andrews Sweeney Unsure

6% 10%

48%

If Lautenberg doesnt run, would his supporters go to Pallone?

Primary 2014

29%

22%
Andrews Pallone Sweeney Booker Unsure

16% 23%

10%

Pallone Lacks a Statewide Profile

and only half of those with an opinion approve of him
75% 70%

50% Positive Negative Unsure

25% 15% 15%

0%
Pallone

Even Among Likely Voters in OffYear Primary, Booker Wins Big

Voting History, Registered NJ Democrats
100%

Voted in Both

75%

57% 18% 11% 14%

Voted Only in General 2009

50%

Voted Only in Primary 2008

Voted in Neither

25%

0%

Opportunities to Deepen Support

AGE
37% 30% 62% 53% 53% 44% 44%

Many Younger Voters Undecided

26%
19% 17% 20% 21% 21%

26% 26%

Booker
18-29 30-39

Lautenberg
40-49 50-64 65+

Unsure

Opportunities to Deepen Support

RACE
64% 49% 49% 43% 34%

Many Asian Voters Undecided

29%
22% 23% 23% 21% 15%

28%

Booker
Black

Lautenberg
Latino Asian

Unsure
White NH

Opportunities to Deepen Support

METRO
REGION
51% 39% 20%23% 37% 29% Many Philly Region Voters Undecided

NYC Philly

Booker

Lautenberg

Unsure