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International Parity Relationships & Forecasting Exchange Rates

International Parity Relationships & Forecasting Exchange Rates

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This chapter examines several key international parity relationships, such as interest rate parity and Third Edition purchasing power parity.

EUN / RESNICK

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Chapter Outline

Interest Rate Parity Purchasing Power Parity The Fisher Effects Forecasting Exchange Rates

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Chapter Outline

Covered Interest Arbitrage IRP and Exchange Rate Determination Reasons for Deviations from IRP

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Chapter Outline

Interest Rate Parity Purchasing Power Parity

PPP Deviations and the Real Exchange Rate Evidence on Purchasing Power Parity

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Chapter Outline

Interest Rate Parity Purchasing Power Parity The Fisher Effects Forecasting Exchange Rates

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Chapter Outline

Interest Rate Parity Purchasing Power Parity The Fisher Effects Forecasting Exchange Rates

Efficient Market Approach Fundamental Approach Technical Approach Performance of the Forecasters

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Interest Rate Parity Defined Covered Interest Arbitrage Interest Rate Parity & Exchange Rate Determination Reasons for Deviations from Interest Rate Parity

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IRP is an arbitrage condition. If IRP did not hold, then it would be possible for an astute trader to make unlimited amounts of money exploiting the arbitrage opportunity. Since we dont typically observe persistent arbitrage conditions, we can safely assume that IRP holds.

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Suppose you have $100,000 to invest for one year. You can either 1. invest in the U.S. at i$. Future value = $100,000(1 + i$) or 2. trade your dollars for yen at the spot rate, invest in Japan at i and hedge your exchange rate risk by selling the future value of the Japanese investment forward. The future value = $100,000(F/S)(1 + i) Since both of these investments have the same risk, they must have the same future valueotherwise an arbitrage would exist, therefore (F/S)(1 + i) = (1 + i$)

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2. Invest 100,000 at i S

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Formally, (F/S)(1 + i) = (1 + i$) or if you prefer, 1 + i$ F = 1 + i S IRP is sometimes approximated as i$ i = F S S

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Depending upon how you quote the exchange rate ($ per or per $) we have: 1 + i F/$ = 1 + i$ S/$

or

1 + i$ F$/ = 1 + i S$/

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If IRP failed to hold, an arbitrage would exist. Its easiest to see this in the form of an example. Consider the following set of foreign and domestic interest rates and spot and forward exchange rates.

Spot exchange rate 360-day forward rate U.S. discount rate British discount rate

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A trader with $1,000 to invest could invest in the U.S., in one year his investment will be worth $1,071 = $1,000 (1+ i$) = $1,000 (1.071) Alternatively, this trader could exchange $1,000 for 800 at the prevailing spot rate, (note that 800 = $1,000$1.25/) invest 800 at i = 11.56% for one year to achieve 892.48. Translate 892.48 back into dollars at F360($/) = $1.20/, the 892.48 will be exactly $1,071.

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$1,071 $1,071 3. One year later, trade 892.48 for $ at F360($/) = $1.20/

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According to IRP only one 360-day forward rate, F360($/), can exist. It must be the case that F360($/) = $1.20/ Why? If F360($/) $1.20/, an astute trader could make money with one of the following strategies:

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Arbitrage Strategy I

If F360($/) > $1.20/ i. Borrow $1,000 at t = 0 at i$ = 7.1%. ii. Exchange $1,000 for 800 at the prevailing spot rate, (note that 800 = $1,000$1.25/) invest 800 at 11.56% (i) for one year to achieve 892.48 iii. Translate 892.48 back into dollars, if F360($/) > $1.20/ , 892.48 will be more than enough to repay your dollar obligation of $1,071.

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Arbitrage Strategy II

If F360($/) < $1.20/ i. Borrow 800 at t = 0 at i= 11.56% . ii. Exchange 800 for $1,000 at the prevailing spot rate, invest $1,000 at 7.1% for one year to achieve $1,071. iii. Translate $1,071 back into pounds, if F360($/) < $1.20/ , $1,071 will be more than enough to repay your obligation of 892.48.

5-

You are a U.S. importer of British woolens and have just ordered next years inventory. Payment of 100M is due in one year.

Spot exchange rate 360-day forward rate U.S. discount rate British discount rate S($/) = $1.25/ F360($/) = $1.20/ i$ = 7.10% i = 11.56%

IRP implies that there are two ways that you fix the cash outflow to a certain U.S. dollar amount: a) Put yourself in a position that delivers 100M in one yeara long forward contract on the pound. You will pay (100M)(1.2/) = $120M b) Form a forward market hedge as shown below.

5-

To form a forward market hedge: Borrow $112.05 million in the U.S. (in one year you will owe $120 million). Translate $112.05 million into pounds at the spot rate S($/) = $1.25/ to receive 89.64 million. Invest 89.64 million in the UK at i = 11.56% for one year. In one year your investment will have grown to 100 millionexactly enough to pay your supplier.

5-

Where do the numbers come from? We owe our supplier 100 million in one yearso we know that we need to have an investment with a future value of 100 million. Since i = 11.56% we need to invest 89.64 million at the start of the year. 100 89.64 = 1.1156 How many dollars will it take to acquire 89.64 million at the start of the year if S($/) = $1.25/?

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Transactions Costs

The interest rate available to an arbitrageur for borrowing, ib,may exceed the rate he can lend at, il. There may be bid-ask spreads to overcome, Fb/Sa < F/S Thus

(Fb/Sa)(1 + il) (1 + i b) 0

Capital Controls

Governments sometimes restrict import and export of money through taxes or outright bans.

5-

Purchasing Power Parity and Exchange Rate Determination PPP Deviations and the Real Exchange Rate Evidence on PPP

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The exchange rate between two currencies should equal the ratio of the countries price levels: P$ S($/) = P

For example, if an ounce of gold costs $300 in the U.S. and 150 in the U.K., then the price of one pound in terms of dollars should be: P$ $300 S($/) = = = $2/ P 150

5-

Relative PPP states that the rate of change in the exchange rate is equal to the differences in the rates of inflation: ($ ) $ e= (1 + ) If U.S. inflation is 5% and U.K. inflation is 8%, the pound should depreciate by 2.78% or around 3%.

5-

The real exchange rate is q = (1 + $) (1 + e)(1+ ) (1 + $ ) If PPP holds, (1 + e) = then q = 1. (1 + ) If q < 1 competitiveness of domestic country improves with currency depreciations. If q > 1 competitiveness of domestic country deteriorates with currency depreciations.

5-

Evidence on PPP

PPP probably doesnt hold precisely in the real world for a variety of reasons.

Haircuts cost 10 times as much in the developed world as in the developing world. Film, on the other hand, is a highly standardized commodity that is actively traded across borders. Shipping costs, as well as tariffs and quotas can lead to deviations from PPP.

5-

An increase (decrease) in the expected rate of inflation will cause a proportionate increase (decrease) in the interest rate in the country. For the U.S., the Fisher effect is written as: 1 + i$ = (1+ $)(1 + E[$]) = 1 + $ + E[$] + $E[$] i$ = $ + E($) + $E[$] $ + E[$] Where $ is the equilibrium expected real U.S. interest rate E[$] is the expected rate of U.S. inflation i$ is the equilibrium expected nominal U.S. interest rate

5-

Expected Inflation

The Fisher effect implies that the expected inflation rate is approximated as the difference between the nominal and real interest rates in each country, i.e. i$ = $ + (1 + $)E[$] $ + E[$]

E[$] =

5-

(i$ $) (1 + $)

i$ $

If the Fisher effect holds in the U.S. i$ = (1+ $)(1 + E[$]) $ + E[$] and the Fisher effect holds in Japan, i = (1+ )(1 + E[]) + E[] and if the real rates are the same in each country (i.e. $ = ), then we get the International Fisher Effect (i$ i) E(e) = i$ i (1 + i)

5-

If the International Fisher Effect holds, (i$ i) E(e) = (1 + i) and if IRP also holds FS S = (i$ i) (1 + i) E(e) = FS

5-

E(e)

IFE FEP PPP IRP FE E($ )

5-

(i$ i)

FS S

FRPPP

An increase (decrease) in the expected rate of inflation will cause a proportionate increase (decrease) in the interest rate in the country. For the U.S., the Fisher effect is written as: 1 + i$ = (1 + $ ) E(1 + $)

Where $ is the equilibrium expected real U.S. interest rate E($) is the expected rate of U.S. inflation i$ is the equilibrium expected nominal U.S. interest rate

5-

If the Fisher effect holds in the U.S. 1 + i$ = (1 + $ ) E(1 + $) and the Fisher effect holds in Japan, 1 + i = (1 + ) E(1 + ) and if the real rates are the same in each country $ = then we get the E(1 + ) 1 + i = E(1 + $) International Fisher Effect: 1 + i$

5-

If the International Fisher Effect holds, E(1 + ) 1 + i = 1 + i$ E(1 + $) and if IRP also holds 1 + i F/$ = 1 + i$ S/$ F/$ E(1 + ) then forward rate PPP holds: = S/$ E(1 + $)

5-

IFE

E (S / $ ) S /$

PPP

FEP

1 + i 1 + i$

F / $ S /$

5-

Efficient Markets Approach Fundamental Approach Technical Approach Performance of the Forecasters

5-

Financial Markets are efficient if prices reflect all available and relevant information. If this is so, exchange rates will only change when new information arrives, thus: St = E[St+1] and Ft = E[St+1| It] Predicting exchange rates using the efficient markets approach is affordable and is hard to beat.

5-

Fundamental Approach

Involves econometrics to develop models that use a variety of explanatory variables. This involves three steps:

step 1: Estimate the structural model. step 2: Estimate future parameter values. step 3: Use the model to develop forecasts.

The downside is that fundamental models do not work any better than the forward rate model or the random walk model.

5-

Technical Approach

Technical analysis looks for patterns in the past behavior of exchange rates. Clearly it is based upon the premise that history repeats itself. Thus it is at odds with the EMH

5-

Forecasting is difficult, especially with regard to the future. As a whole, forecasters cannot do a better job of forecasting future exchange rates than the forward rate. The founder of Forbes Magazine once said: You can make more money selling financial advice than following it.

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