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RECURSOS
FINANCIEROS
Decisiones de
inversin de largo
plazo (Presupuesto
de capital)
Parte II
Esquemas de
simulacin
Profesor: Juan OBrien
Problema. Sensibilidad
Informacin
Costo de capital promedio pronderado
Tasa de impuestos
Ventas proyectadas
Crecimiento de ventas
Costo de ventas
Gastos administrativos
Incremento gastos administrativos
Gastos de ventas (respecto a las ventas)
Depreciacin (% activos)
kdew (% del incremento de las vtas)
Incremento AF (% de las ventas)
Inversion inicial en Activos Fijos
Invesion inicial en activos corrientes
14.00%
30.00%
S/. 5,000,000
5.00%
56.00%
S/. 1,500,000
2.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
5.00%
1,200,000
650,000
Problema. Sensibilidad
Ao 0
Ao 1
Ao 2
Ao 3
Ao 4
Ao 5
Ventas
Costo de ventas
Margen bruto
S/. 5,000,000
-S/. 2,800,000
S/. 2,200,000
S/. 5,250,000
-S/. 2,940,000
S/. 2,310,000
S/. 5,512,500
-S/. 3,087,000
S/. 2,425,500
S/. 5,788,125
-S/. 3,241,350
S/. 2,546,775
S/. 6,077,531
-S/. 3,403,418
S/. 2,674,114
Gastos administrativos
Gastos de ventas
-S/. 1,500,000
-S/. 250,000
-S/. 1,530,000
-S/. 262,500
-S/. 1,560,600
-S/. 275,625
-S/. 1,591,812
-S/. 289,406
-S/. 1,623,648
-S/. 303,877
S/. 450,000
S/. 517,500
S/. 589,275
S/. 665,557
S/. 746,589
-S/. 120,000
-S/. 145,000
-S/. 171,250
-S/. 198,813
-S/. 227,753
EBIT
S/. 330,000
S/. 372,500
S/. 418,025
S/. 466,744
S/. 518,836
Impuestos
Depreciacion
-S/. 99,000
S/. 120,000
-S/. 111,750
S/. 145,000
-S/. 125,408
S/. 171,250
-S/. 140,023
S/. 198,813
-S/. 155,651
S/. 227,753
NOPAT
S/. 351,000
S/. 405,750
S/. 463,868
S/. 525,533
S/. 590,938
-S/. 1,200,000
-S/. 750,000
-S/. 250,000
-S/. 37,500
-S/. 262,500
-S/. 39,375
-S/. 275,625
-S/. 41,344
-S/. 289,406
-S/. 43,411
-S/. 1,950,000
S/. 63,500
S/. 103,875
S/. 146,899
S/. 192,716
-S/. 303,877
-S/. 45,581
S/. 2,683,113
S/. 2,924,593
EBITDA
Depreciacin
CAPEX
Inversiones k de w
Perpetuidad
Flujo de caja libre
VAN
TIR
-S/. 82,172
12.94%
Problema. Sensibilidad
Ventas
-S/. 82,172
(2,297,733)
(82,172)
2,133,389
Costo de ventas
54.00%
56.00%
59.00%
-S/. 82,172
671,056
(82,172)
(1,212,013)
Crecimiento de ventas
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
7.00%
-S/. 82,172
(476,653)
(82,172)
405,333
1,025,568
Gastos administ
1,400,000
1,500,000
1,600,000
1,700,000
-S/. 82,172
603,916
(82,172)
(768,259)
(1,454,347)
-S/. 82,172
(82,172)
(408,881)
(744,524)
(1,089,269)
gtos de venta
3%
4%
5%
6%
-S/. 82,172
671,056
294,442
(82,172)
(458,786)
-S/. 82,172
409,151
(82,172)
(573,495)
-S/. 82,172
302,333
148,531
(312,875)
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
Problema. Sensibilidad
Crecimiento en ventas
Gastos de venta
-S/. 82,172
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
7.00%
3.00%
(502,410.89)
(178,172.48)
206,334.40
671,055.51
1,245,909.69
1,977,912.70
4.00%
(790,798.16)
(490,774.47)
(135,159.37)
294,441.82
825,621.58
1,501,740.22
5.00%
(1,079,185.44)
(803,376.45)
(476,653.14)
(82,171.87)
405,333.47
1,025,567.74
6.00%
(1,367,572.71)
(1,115,978.44)
(818,146.91)
(458,785.57)
(14,954.64)
549,395.26
7.00%
(1,655,959.99)
(1,428,580.42)
(1,159,640.68)
(835,399.26)
(435,242.75)
73,222.79
Problema. Sensibilidad 2
Distribuidor de automoviles de lujo
Inversion
$ 280,000
Activos sujetos a depreciacion
$ 220,000
Inversiones en capital de trabajo
$ 60,000
Inversiones anuales en AF
$ 25,000
Precio unidad
$ 65,000
Costos fijos
$ 96,000 anuales
Costo variable
75.00%
Comisiones de venta
3.00%
depreciacion
10.00 aos
factor depreciacion lr
0.10
Costo de capital
14.00%
Impuestos
30.00%
Unidades vendidas
1er ao
2do ao
3er ao
4to ao y siguientes
5
8
10
15
Problema. Sensibilidad 2
Ao 0
Ventas
Costo de ventas
Margen bruto
Costos fijos
Comisiones de venta
EBITDA
Depreciacion
EBIT
Depreciacin
Inversiones de capital
Inversiones capital de trabajo
Perpetuidad
Flujo de caja neto
VAN
TIR
-$ 220,000
-$ 60,000
-$ 280,000
$ 111,166
21.39%
Ao 1
Ao 2
Ao 3
Ao 4
Ao 5
$ 325,000
$ 243,750
$ 81,250
$ 520,000
$ 390,000
$ 130,000
$ 650,000
$ 487,500
$ 162,500
$ 975,000
$ 731,250
$ 243,750
$ 975,000
$ 731,250
$ 243,750
$ 96,000
$ 9,750
$ 96,000
$ 15,600
$ 96,000
$ 19,500
$ 96,000
$ 29,250
$ 96,000
$ 29,250
-$ 24,500
$ 18,400
$ 47,000
$ 118,500
$ 118,500
$ 22,000
$ 24,500
$ 27,000
$ 29,500
$ 32,000
-$ 46,500
-$ 6,100
$ 20,000
$ 89,000
$ 86,500
$ 22,000
-$ 25,000
$ 24,500
-$ 25,000
$ 27,000
-$ 25,000
$ 29,500
-$ 25,000
$ 32,000
-$ 25,000
$ 93,500
$ 617,857
$ 711,357
-$ 49,500
-$ 6,600
$ 22,000
Problema. Sensibilidad 2
Distribuidor de automoviles de lujo
Inversion
$ 280,000
Activos sujetos a depreciacion
$ 220,000
Inversiones en capital de trabajo
$ 60,000
Inversiones anuales en AF
$ 25,000
Precio unidad
$ 65,000
Costos fijos
$ 96,000 anuales
Costo variable
75.00%
Comisiones de venta
3.00%
depreciacion
10.00 aos
factor depreciacion lr
0.10
Costo de capital
14.00%
Impuestos
30.00%
Unidades vendidas
Probab acumulada
Primeros 3 aos
0.00%
5
10.00%
8
30.00%
10
70.00%
15
Probab acumulada
A partir del 4 ao
0.00%
12
33.33%
14
66.66%
15
Problema. Sensibilidad 2
Ao 0
Ventas
Costo de ventas
Margen bruto
Ao 1
Ao 2
Ao 3
Ao 4
Ao 5
$ 975,000
$ 731,250
$ 243,750
$ 650,000
$ 487,500
$ 162,500
$ 650,000
$ 487,500
$ 162,500
$ 910,000
$ 682,500
$ 227,500
$ 780,000
$ 585,000
$ 195,000
$ 96,000
$ 29,250
$ 96,000
$ 19,500
$ 96,000
$ 19,500
$ 96,000
$ 27,300
$ 96,000
$ 23,400
$ 118,500
$ 47,000
$ 47,000
$ 104,200
$ 75,600
Depreciacion
$ 22,000
$ 24,500
$ 27,000
$ 29,500
$ 32,000
EBIT
$ 96,500
$ 22,500
$ 20,000
$ 74,700
$ 43,600
$ 22,000
-$ 25,000
$ 24,500
-$ 25,000
$ 27,000
-$ 25,000
$ 29,500
-$ 25,000
$ 32,000
-$ 25,000
$ 93,500
$ 22,000
$ 22,000
$ 79,200
$ 311,429
$ 362,029
Costos fijos
Comisiones de venta
EBITDA
Depreciacin
Inversiones de capital
Inversiones capital de trabajo
Perpetuidad
Flujo de caja neto
VAN
TIR
-$ 220,000
-$ 60,000
-$ 280,000
$ 68,714
21.15%
Problema. Sensibilidad 2
Histograma
% acumulado
40
120.00%
35
100.00%
30
80.00%
25
20
60.00%
15
40.00%
10
20.00%
Clase
y mayor...
$ 400,000
$ 300,000
0.00%
$ 200,000
$ 100,000
2.00%
18.00%
40.00%
75.00%
99.00%
100.00%
100.00%
$0
2
16
22
35
24
1
0
-$ 100,000
-$ 100,000
$0
$ 100,000
$ 200,000
$ 300,000
$ 400,000
y mayor...
Frecuencia
Frecuencia
Clase
Frecuencia
% acumulado
Problema. Sensibilidad 3
Proyecto de transporte de pasajeros
Viajes por ao
300
68
50.00%
S/. 80.00 *incluye alimentacion
5.00%
S/. 3.50
S/. 3.50
Inversion bus
Valor de desecho
Funcionamiento aos
Depreciacion aos
impuestos
costo promedio de capital
S/. 1,594.29
29
S/. 11.00
10
S/. 38.00
S/. 400.00
S/. 300.00
S/. 200.00
2.00
S/. 70.00
S/. 35.00
S/. 105.00
S/. 80,000.00
S/. 50,000.00
S/. 30,000.00
S/. 230,000.00
20.00%
10
10
30.00%
15.00%
Problema. Sensibilidad 3
Ao 0
Ventas
Costo variable por pasajero
Costo variable por viaje
Costo variable por tripulante
EBITDA
Ao 1
Ao 2
Ao 3
Ao 4
Ao 5
Ao 6
Ao 7
Ao 8
Ao 9
Ao 10
816,000
71,400
478,286
63,000
203,314
816,000
71,400
478,286
63,000
203,314
816,000
71,400
478,286
63,000
203,314
816,000
71,400
478,286
63,000
203,314
816,000
71,400
478,286
63,000
203,314
816,000
71,400
478,286
63,000
203,314
816,000
71,400
478,286
63,000
203,314
816,000
71,400
478,286
63,000
203,314
816,000
71,400
478,286
63,000
203,314
816,000
71,400
478,286
63,000
203,314
80,000
40,800
23,000
80,000
40,800
23,000
80,000
40,800
23,000
80,000
40,800
23,000
80,000
40,800
23,000
80,000
40,800
23,000
80,000
40,800
23,000
80,000
40,800
23,000
80,000
40,800
23,000
80,000
40,800
23,000
EBT
59,514
59,514
59,514
59,514
59,514
59,514
59,514
59,514
59,514
59,514
Impuestos
17,854
17,854
17,854
17,854
17,854
17,854
17,854
17,854
17,854
17,854
41,660
41,660
41,660
41,660
41,660
41,660
41,660
41,660
41,660
41,660
Depreciacin
Inversiones de capital
-S/. 230,000
Inversiones K de w
Recuperacion capital de trabajo
Perpetuidad
Flujo de caja neto
-S/. 230,000
23,000
23,000
23,000
23,000
23,000
23,000
23,000
23,000
23,000
23,000
32,200
64,660
64,660
64,660
64,660
64,660
64,660
64,660
64,660
64,660
96,860
VAN
TIR
S/. 102,473
25.60%
Problema. Sensibilidad 3
% ocupacion
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
70.00%
S/. 102,473
-S/. 986,881
-S/. 442,204
S/. 102,473
S/. 647,150
S/. 1,191,827
Comision de ventas
3.00%
5.00%
7.00%
S/. 102,473
S/. 159,807
S/. 102,473
S/. 45,139
Costo alimentacion
S/. 3.00
S/. 3.50
S/. 4.00
S/. 102,473
S/. 138,307
S/. 102,473
S/. 66,639
Consumo combustible
25
30
35
S/. 102,473
S/. 143,878
S/. 85,911
S/. 27,944
Consumo lubricante
8
10
12
S/. 102,473
S/. 182,572
S/. 102,473
S/. 22,373
S/. 102,473
S/. 278,130
S/. 102,473
S/. 67,342
S/. 32,210
Problema. Sensibilidad 3
Proyecto de transporte de pasajeros
Viajes por ao
300
68
0
0.2
0.5
0.7
35.00%
45.00%
55.00%
65.00%
S/. 80.00 *incluye alimentacion
S/. 60.00
S/. 70.00
S/. 80.00
S/. 100.00
5.00%
Precio promedio
0
0.2
0.5
0.7
Comision de ventas
Costos variables por pasajero
Costo variable alimentacion
S/. 3.50
S/. 3.50
Inversion bus
Valor de desecho
Funcionamiento aos
Depreciacion aos
impuestos
costo promedio de capital
S/. 1,594.29
29
S/. 11.00
10
S/. 38.00
S/. 400.00
S/. 300.00
S/. 200.00
2.00
S/. 70.00
S/. 35.00
S/. 105.00
S/. 80,000.00
S/. 50,000.00
S/. 30,000.00
S/. 230,000.00
20.00%
10
10
30.00%
15.00%
Problema. Sensibilidad 3
Frecuencia
Histograma
35
120.00%
30
100.00%
25
80.00%
20
60.00%
15
40.00%
10
20.00%
5
0
0.00%
-200000 -100000
Frecuencia
% acumulado
Problema. Sensibilidad 3
Proyecto de transporte de pasajeros
Viajes por ao
300
68
0
0.2
0.5
0.7
35.00%
45.00%
55.00%
65.00%
S/. 80.00 *incluye alimentacion
S/. 60.00
S/. 70.00
S/. 80.00
S/. 100.00
5.00%
Precio promedio
0
0.2
0.5
0.7
Comision de ventas
Costos variables por pasajero
Costo variable alimentacion
S/. 3.50
S/. 3.50
Inversion bus
Valor de desecho
Funcionamiento aos
Depreciacion aos
impuestos
costo promedio de capital
S/. 1,594.29
29
S/. 11.00
10
S/. 38.00
S/. 400.00
S/. 300.00
S/. 200.00
2.00
S/. 70.00
S/. 35.00
S/. 105.00
S/. 30,000.00
S/. 30,000.00
S/. 230,000.00
20.00%
10
10
30.00%
15.00%
Problema. Sensibilidad 3
Frecuencia
Histograma
70
120.00%
60
100.00%
50
80.00%
40
60.00%
30
40.00%
20
10
20.00%
0.00%
-200000 -100000
100000
Clase
200000 y mayor...
Frecuencia
% acumulado