Science and Superstition

(Impress Your Friends with Latin)

Why We Believe Weird Things

Logical Fallacies
Critical Thinking
X-Files: Weird Things
• UFOs and the Bermuda Triangle
• Ghosts, demonic possession
• Bigfoot, Loch Ness monster
• Alternative medical therapies
• Astrology, Feng Shui, palmistry
• Cults, unorthodox religious beliefs
• Urban myths and conspiracy theories
• ESP, déjà vu, alien abduction

Why do we believe in them?

What does science have to say about them?
Why We Believe Weird Things
Because everyone else does
• argumentum ad populum (many people)
– Because beliefs are shared by others
• argumentum ad antiquitatem (tradition)
– Because we have long believed so
• argumentum ad verecundiam (authority),
argumentum ad baculum (power)
– Celebrities, politicians, even some scientists
subscribe to weird beliefs, help propagate them
Why We Believe Weird Things
Bad Logic
• Because you can’t prove them wrong: Argumentum ad
ignorantiam (argument from ignorance)
• Whoever makes a claim has the Burden of Proof
– Carl Sagan: “Extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof”
• “Emperor’s New Clothes” argument:
– “It only works if you believe in it.”
– “You don’t have the gift (or don’t cultivate it), so you can’t see the
spirits.”
• Some beliefs are unfalsifiable (remember K. Popper?). Ex.1:
– Palm reader, iridologist: “You are prone to diabetes, so be careful.”
– If you get diabetes, they’ll say, “See? I told you so.”
– If you don’t get diabetes: “I see you heeded my warning .”
– Ex.2: Recently from US cabinet official: “Terrorists are going to
attack inside the US this summer.”
 Why We Believe Weird Things: Bad Logic
• Because they seem true: cum hoc ergo propter hoc (with this,
therefore because of this)
• Ex. “Drinking green tea prevents shark attacks.” “I don’t see
any sharks around here.” “See how well it works?”
• Fact: US counties that consume more wine have more cancer
cases. Therefore wine causes cancer.
– Wine consumption (A) is associated with high cancer incidence (B) not
because (A) causes (B), but because (A) and (B) have the same
ultimate cause. Wealthier people drink more wine and live longer; living
longer increases chances of getting cancer.
• In general, many health fads seem to work because
• People who follow them can afford better health care
• Health fanatics take better care of themselves.
• Many health fanatics are hypochondriacs
• Explain these: (1) Humans with bigger shoe sizes have higher
IQs. (2) Apr 07 phone survey: Mike Defensor will win easily
Why We Believe Weird Things
Because it is easier to believe than to verify
• Many phenomena poorly understood, difficult to explain
– Ex. Schizophrenia explains demonic possession: collective stress
reaction (mass hysteria) explains group demonic possession
– Déjà vu: malfunction in dentate gyrus in hippocampus weakens ability
to differentiate between two similar but different situations
– Alien abductions: delusions, or fake implanted memories
• Statistical Innumeracy: We often have a poor grasp of how
likely something strange or fantastic occurs by pure chance
– Ex. The Bermuda Triangle; dreams or predictions that come true;
strange coincidences
• Simple explanations exist, but they can never refute a claim
– Ex. UFOs, apparitions cannot be disproven
 Ghosts?

www.ghostvillage.com
Ateneo FootballField,
Ateneo Football Field,Feb
Feb2007,
2007,6PM
1AM
Monkey Face
Monument on
Martian Surface?
Humans are
predisposed to look
for familiar patterns
Why We Believe Weird Things
There is a Belief Industry
• Because cranks (fortune tellers, cold readers, spirit
mediums) can be very persuasive and skilled
– Make general statements about a person: “You have a
loved one living or working abroad.”
– Make specific-sounding statements to a group: “I am
hearing from a spirit whose name starts with J, like Jim or
Jason.”
– Make ambiguous statements: “You’re not from here, are
you?”
• Famous crackpots: Galileo, Edison
– All other crackpots are just crackpots: Dingel, Escosa,
the late Ernie “Walking Encyclopedia” Baron
Why We Believe Weird Things
There is a Belief Industry
• Magic + spiritual content = mystical experience
– Cranks wrap weird beliefs with religion to enhance legitimacy
– Why professional magicians are noted skeptics and debunkers:
Houdini, Amazing Randi, Penn & Teller
Why We Believe Weird Things
• Because people lie, even
people you don’t expect to
– No reason to lie? Other than
money: boredom, fame,
tourism, fanaticism
– People who make fantastic
claims sound smart, special,
gifted or holy
– Claims from FOAF: sources
have no reason to lie because
they’re not sure either
• Bigfoot, crop circles: people
continue to believe even
AFTER the hoax is admitted
Why We Believe Weird Things
• Because we underestimate our capacities to be
deceived
– People can be mistaken, even those who should know
better
– Memories are selective, testimonies often faulty: why
courts require material evidence
– Delusions and hallucinations can be very real to
schizophrenics and their audience
– Strange events at night: solitude, darkness, sleepy
witnesses often explain them
– If it’s on TV/newspapers/internet, it’s gotta be true
• Michael Shermer, Why People Believe Weird
Things (2002): People simply hate changing their
minds
Why We Believe Weird Things

• Conspiracy theories: wild beliefs that persist

because they’re interesting (e.g., Historians hide
the fact Adolf Hitler was Jose Rizal’s son)
• . . . Or are fueled by public anger
– Oil companies suppress technology that allow engines to
go 100 km/l, or the water-powered car
– Big drug companies suppress natural cures
– We know little about UFOs and aliens because the U.S.
Government is hiding data
– Deeper truths lurk behind the JFK assassination, death
of Princess Diana, 9/11
Why We Believe Weird Things
Cognitive Science
• Confirmation Bias: Tendency to reinforce false
beliefs by using (consciously or subconsciously) only
the little information that supports the belief, blindly
ignoring overwhelming non-supporting data
– Believers assign greater weight on gossip, anecdotes,
personal experiences, crackpots than cold, hard facts
• Rational Choice Theory: Seemingly crazy choices
are actually rational in that they provide benefit
– Plaintiffs vs. Dow Corning breast implants: believing can
rationalize an illness, earn big payback for some
– Vaccines cause autism: Believing may help find a cure
Why We Believe Weird Things

• Social Psychologist P. Leman on Conspiracy

Theories: people believe that major events
should have major causes
– Death of Princess Di, JFK assassination, 9/11 just
can’t have simple explanations
– If big events can have minor causes, ordinary life
seems unacceptably random and unpredictable
– Time Magazine (11 Sep 06): “There is something
perversely comforting about the idea that some
great malevolent force is behind global events”
Why We Believe Weird Things

• Because sometimes believing works – the

Placebo Effect
– People can get better when they believe they will:
endorphins, immune systems kick in
– Doctors know many illnesses go away by themselves,
with or without treatment, whatever the treatment
• Because we remember better when beliefs come
true: selective memory
– We tend to remember events that are remarkable
– Beliefs become “proven” by selective memory, and
strengthened by repetition
Why We Believe Weird Things

• Because sometimes they’re true

– Many medicines are based on herbs used by
traditional healers
• Aspirin from willow bark, Tamiflu from star anise
– “Healers” recommend conventional wisdom,
which is usually right: “Eat well, exercise, avoid
fatty food, don’t smoke or drink”
– Cranks know enough science to give themselves
and their ideas some credibility
– Feng Shui: some recommendations make sense:
• Don’t put a toilet over your dining area; choose a home
that faces east; stagger doors in hallways, etc.
Why We Believe Weird Things

• Because it makes life much more interesting

– Where will books and movies get their material?
– There must be more to reality than science
– How sad it would be if they’re not true (Santa Claus
effect)
• Because we fear the alternatives of not believing
– Blaise Pascal’s Wager modified: Believing promises
immense rewards at little expense, not believing means
certain loss and winning nothing
– So why tempt fate? Why mess with tradition?
Why We Believe Weird Things
Because We’re Human
• Beliefs provide comfort, apparent control of
our fates – a deeply human quality
– Alternative therapies for the desperate
– Talking to dead loved ones
– Justice: “sumpa,” “kulam” or karma
– Water-powered car, unlimited ocean energy from
deuterium
– Pyramid schemes, Nigerian internet scam: “You
cannot cheat an honest man”
Why We Believe Weird Things

• Because there’s no harm in believing

– Most quack cures don’t work, but at least they
don’t make things worse
• Urine therapy, megavitamins, homeopathy
– Horoscopes: Reassuring, sound advice, even if
generic or trivial
• Because some beliefs can have enough
unintended benefits to be promoted
– Ex. Animism helps protect the environment;
vegan lifestyle can be healthy
No Harm?

• You can hurt yourself

– Professional wrestling: Do not try at home
– Judiel’s legacy: Agoo “Dancing Sun” Blindness
– Amulet failure: the massacre of Lapiang Malaya, PBMA
followers
• You can deny yourself good health
– “Prayer alone heals”
– Scientology: Psychiatry is fake; vitamins cure depression
• Kids can die from simple health problems
(appendicitis, internal injuries, diarrhea, infection)
when parents refuse conventional treatment
No Harm in Believing the Fantastic?

• You can look stupid

• You can lose money: pyramid
schemes, excessive donations
• You can die: doomsday cults
• You can hurt others: basing your
choice of mate on horoscope signs;
choosing an employee based on
handwriting
• Other side effects: naiveté,
gullibility, fatalism, fanaticism,
helplessness, bigotry
 Why We Believe Weird Things
Because Science is Hard
• Skeptical scientists sound dismissive, arrogant
– Believers complain scientists have closed minds
– Scientists are not trained to communicate well, or rarely
have time to investigate fantastic claims
• Science and learning is expensive
– Conventional medicine is expensive
– So are books, education, culture
• Scientific consensus changes all the time
– Makes it hard to trust or accept scientific opinion
– New findings modify, contradict, overturn old ones
– Self-correction is part of science’s strength
– Requires scientists to interact, stay updated, keep learning
Why We Believe Weird Things
Because those who know better fail us

• Media doesn’t help

– Newspapers prefer simple catchy answers, titillate rather
than educate
– Too willing to repeat claims rather than test them
– RP: Popular, pro-poor, anti-establishment edge sells
• Governments generally tolerate unfounded beliefs
– Alternative medicines are classified as food supplements,
not drugs, and are therefore tested for safety, not
effectiveness
– Many alternative drugs are labeled “No proven
therapeutic claims” but few read it
– Govt. steps in only if something poses harm
What about Religious Claims?
• Conflict is really between crackpots and
fundamentalists vs. scientists
– i.e., Bad science vs. good science
• After centuries of conflict, Catholic church and
scientists now agree on many fronts
– Even the Vatican relies on science: evolution, cosmology,
testing miracles and claims (e.g. Shroud of Turin)
– However, religious authorities often tolerate some popular
unfounded beliefs if they reinforce faith
– Remaining sources of conflict: uses of S&T
• Beyond Science: human life’s meaning and purpose
Thinking Clearly

• Have faith in science and common sense

• Read good books, be informed, seek many sources
• Apply Occam’s Razor: among many possible
explanations, the simplest is most likely to true
• If a fantastic claim is too good to be true, it’s false
• Be a skeptic: Life is no less exciting, special,
purposeful, or mysterious without delusions