Population

Urban Planning Urban Landuse, Infrastructures, Amenities, etc

Introduction:
Population projections are the fundamental criteria of planning activities such producing land use, transportation , housing, environmental and facilities plan of future. (Wang.X. & Hofe.R.v., 2007)

Definition of Cohort:
Cohort means group or batch of something (usually people) that share same characteristics (age, gender, education level, economic status etc.).

Different group of people will have different spefication of requirements for urban expenses budgeting, housing, educations, infrastructures and public amenities (which are the main business of urban planning)

Example of Cohort Graph and Population Growth

Demographic cohort in Greece

Three type of growth pattern

Japan Population Changes over Time

Malaysia Working Group Cohort

Number of Population by Gender and Age Group Malaysia, 2000 and 2010

Source: Statistic Deparment of Malaysia, 2011

COHORT SURVIVAL/COMPONENT MODEL A technique used to project future population, and study demography pattern of a region, based on previous population data, trends and parameters. Demography origanate from ancient Greek word meaning description of people. Demographic study focus on population size, location, density, distribution, movement and characteristics. Migration Rate (In, Out) Existing Population Mortality Rate (Death) Fertility Rate (Birth)

Components of Cohort Survival Model

Below is the population cohort of Johor Bahru District on year 2000, based on 5 year interval and gender. Based on the 2000 population cohort (called as the base year cohort), project population of Johor Bahru for the year 2005, by using Cohort Model.
Male Age Structure 2000
>75
70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59

Female

Age

Male Population (MP) Female Population (FP) in year base 2000 in base year 2000

50-54
45-49 40-44 35-39

30-34
25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14

5-9
0-4 -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75 and above Total
Total Population

65,153 61,739 51,381 53,394 64,621 62,532 54,754 48,068 38,440 28,197 20,046 10631 10062 6270 4179 4202 583,669
1,098,393

60,191 57,939 47,211 49,226 59,497 27,995 50,061 43,079 35,608 27972 19782 11548 10002 6241 4118 4254 514,724

Source: Johor Bahru District Local Plan, 2003

('000)

Data/Information Required to Run Cohort Model

Age 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75 and above Total Total Population Male Population (MP) Female Population (FP) in year base 2000 in base year 2000 65,153 61,739 51,381 53,394 64,621 62,532 54,754 48,068 38,440 28,197 20,046 10631 10062 6270 4179 4202 583,669 1,098,393 60,191 57,939 47,211 49,226 59,497 27,995 50,061 43,079 35,608 27972 19782 11548 10002 6241 4118 4254 514,724

Migrant Male/Female Survival Rate

Fertility Rate

Projected Population

STEP 1 : Acquire Survival Rate

1. Calculate survival rate for each age cohort for both male and female. 2. Except 0-10 years cohort, the Survival Rate decrease when age increase. 3. Different region will have different survival rate. For example survival rate between : i. a poor country such Sudan, ii. a rich country such Britian, iii. a developing country such China, iv. and, a warring country such Palestine. 4. Survival rate for each age and gender cohort usually are provided in a region population census report by statistic department. 5. For this exercise, the survival rate are provided as in the following table

FORMULA TO CALCULATE SURVIVAL RATE

Sx Pxt-1 Pxt

Survival rate of cohort x on year t Population of cohort x on year t-1 (previous year) Population of cohort x on year t (studied year)
Age 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75 and above Male survival rates 0.99479 0.995531 0.995339 0.993107 0.991573 0.990588 0.987926 0.982144 0.971451 0.955657 0.930231 0.893816 0.830124 0.758008 0.558637 0.279319 Female survival rates 0.992879 0.996572 0.996803 0.996576 0.994889 0.993757 0.99115 0.987182 0.982565 0.97499 0.956477 0.93254 0.888117 0.831622 0.675795 0.337898

STEP 2 : Arrange Data in Excel

1. The male, and female population for base year are arrange along with male and female survival rate in Excel Table. 2. Column in red are essential data needed to run cohort model.

STEP 3 : Project Population and Age Shift Concept

1. By applying the formula below, project the population of each cohort based on their survival/mortality rate. For instance:
Where: S Pxt

The Age Shift Concept

Survival rate of cohort Population of cohort x on year t

STEP 3 : Project Population and Age Shift Concept

1. By applying the formula below, project the population of each cohort based on their survival/mortality rate. For instance:

Where: S Pxt

Survival rate of cohort Population of cohort x on year t

In Excel
1. The above formula should be apply by multiplying the above formula and the age shift concept. 2. For the projected year, population for the last cohort is the total projected population for the last and second last cohort.

STEP 5: Male and Female Baby

1. Below are the fertility rate of each cohort considered as fertile period for female in Johor Bahru District. By using fertility rate of 2000 (based year female population) , we could calculate population of 0-4 cohort for 2005. 2. By utilizing the ratio of male and female population in base year, we could calculate the number of children age 0-4 years old during the projected year by gender. 3. Below is the formula to calculate ratio between male and female population:
Age 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75 and above Age specific fertility rates or birth rates

Where: Pxt

Population of x cohort on time t

0.039752 0.187693 0.248447 0.20773 0.143431 0.059273 0.006755

Based on the given set of data, survival rate, and birth rate, in the tutorial, project the population of Johor Bahru District (JB) until year 2015 by using the projected population in year 2005 as the base year, and answer the following questions: (10 carry marks)
*
Make your answer and report straight forward and as comprehensive as possible, in Englisih. Submit on the following week.

QUESTIONS
1. What is the total projected population of JB at year 2015 and number of houses needed for JB if a single family consist of 4.3 peoples? Describe and explain the population cohort shape/growth of Johor Bahru District on year 2015, is it the same with 2005? By utilizing the projected population cohort in year 2015, how many primary school should be provided if each primary school able to accommodate 1000 pupils? If you unable to deter, explain why and suggest improvement on this cohort model so you could use it to calculate future demand for school amenities. State the formula to calculate population growth rate (refer census report), and calculate the average annual growth rate of JB for 2005-2010, 2010-2015.

2.

3.

4.

Book Wang, X. & Hofe, R.V. ,(2007) Research Methods in Urban and Regional Planning. Springer Berlin Heidelberg, New York. ISBN 978-3-540-49657-1. Excel Maria Langer (1999) Excel 2000 for Windows; Visual Quick Start Guide, Peachpit Press (HF 5548.4 M523 L36 1999 c.1) 15 Palani Murugappan (2002) EXCEL; Functions for the daily serve, Venton publishing (HF 5548.4. M523 P36 2002 c.1) Website Japan Population Distribution based on Age. Obtained on 12 March 2012. http://japanfocus.org/-Glenda_S_-Roberts/3450

Population Changes and Trend. Obtained on 12 March 2012. http://www.prb.org/Educators/TeachersGuides/HumanPopulation/Change.aspx

Greece Demography. Obtained on 12 March 2012. http://ecology90.wordpress.com/2010/11/29/social-and-demographical-changes-among-societies/ THANK YOU