HEGEMON AND POTENTIAL PEER COMPETITOR

An analysis of the United States security strategy towards China

MMAS Ingrid M. Gjerde

Research question: Is the United States contemporary national security strategy for dealing with China optimal in the light of political and economic development in China?
Proposition: The United States contemporary security strategy for dealing with China is inconsistent, and it is not optimal in the light of political and economic development in China.

Theory
Mainly realistic approach to international politics. Liberalistic approaches are also discussed. States as rational actors (a simplification): focus on the states objectives and strategies without paying much attention to the internal bureaucracy and interest groups that influence and complicate the policies of a state. Expect states to have clear goals and objectives and a set of alternative strategies to choose from, and to each alternative is an attached set of consequences.

Power transition theory

The power transition theory basis for organizing the research: Great powers (China) appears as potential rivals to a hegemon (USA). Power parity between challengers and the dominant state, combined with the challengers negative evaluation of dissatisfaction with the status quo, can lead to conflict if the dominant state resists the demands of change from the challengers. The main basis for peace is the preponderance of the dominant country, and the peace can be maintained as long as the potential challenging powers are satisfied.

Methodology
Framework for analysis of the emergence of a peer competitor (RAND report)
To become a peer, the potential peer (China) has four main strategies: reform, revolution, alliance or conquest. The hegemon has four strategies of response: conciliate, co-opt, constrain, and compete. Examine which is the dominant strategy of China, and whether the US response strategy is optimal or not according to the RAND framework and the power transition theory.

Design
1. Introduction 2. Review of literature 3. Research methodology and theory 3.1 Introduction 3.2 Framework of the emergence of a peer competitor 3.3 Power transition theory 3.4 Feasibility of the method 3.5 Validity and reliability

4. Analysis 4.1 Introduction

4.2 Strategic setting: geopolitical characteristics, history of China, actors that can influence the situation and sources of power, US interests in the Asian region, domestic situation of the United States 4.3 The rise of China - a peer competitor to the United States? China: ends and objectives, focus on the main issues with the US China: ways and means (DIME) China: courses of action/main path (most likely, most dangerous) Conclusion 4.4 US national interests involved and policy towards the area United States: ends and objectives in general United States: ends and objectives in the East Asian region United States: ways and means (DIME) Response to Chinese strategy choice optimal? (according to framework) Evaluation of US strategy: Feasibility, Suitability, Acceptability, Completeness 4.5 Conclusion

Challenges
Use of framework and theory how much should I discuss the strengths and weaknesses of these tools ? The US must deal with most likely and most dangerous Chinese strategy does this mean the strategy should be inconsistent? Interpretation of US military ambitions/build up (why does the US want to command the commons: air, space, sea)? Imperialistic self-defense? Secrecy of Chinese authoroties other sources on China? Formidable amount of literature dealing with this topic quality of sources?

Time
Draft chapter 1-3 December 5 Draft chapter 4.1 and 4.2 December 20 Draft chapter 4.3 January 20 Draft chapter 4.4 and 4.5 February 20 Draft chapter 5 February 28 Final draft thesis March 30

No concerns. (-: