Академический Документы
Профессиональный Документы
Культура Документы
INTRODUCTION OUTLOOK 2012 TOURISM PERFORMANCE CONSUMERS IN THE DRIVING SEAT LCCS AND THE INDUSTRY SHAKEOUT HOTELS AS LIFESTYLE-SETTERS TECHNOLOGY A GAME-CHANGER
INTRODUCTION
Scope
Disclaimer
Much of the information in this briefing is of a statistical nature and, while every attempt has been made to ensure accuracy and reliability, Euromonitor International cannot be held responsible for omissions or errors. Figures in tables and analyses are calculated from unrounded data and may not sum. Analyses found in the briefings may not totally reflect the companies' opinions, reader discretion is advised.
Hotels
2012 is shaping up to be a challenging year for the travel industry where despite the strong economies in the emerging markets, uncertainty in Europe has the potential to disrupt global prosperity. However, low cost carriers and mid-priced hotels are benefiting from on-going consumer caution regarding their spending to drive growth across the globe. Evolving technology continues to impact the travel industry, putting consumers in the driving seat, alongside travel providers.
Euromonitor International
INTRODUCTION
Key findings
2012 not looking good for Europe Amid growing uncertainty about the future of the Eurozone in 2012, travel and tourism in Western Europe remains depressed, with high unemployment and continued austerity measures reducing intra-regional travel and spending. Emerging nations still The emerging nations, particularly China, are boosting global trips, as their strong lead the way economies enable a growing number of consumers to travel. Regional destinations are popular, with Chinese travellers staying closest to home. Surge in arrivals and The recent Executive Order by President Obama to boost travel and tourism is spending for US predicted to continue a recent surge seen in arrivals and spending in the US. Changes to visa procedures have been key in attracting more visitors. Social Local Mobile With the growth of mobile devices, Social Local Mobile (SoLoMo) is tipped to have a big impact on travel. Mobile applications determine a consumer's location and then push information relevant to the destination and prior needs. Impact of sustainability With sustainability becoming more mainstream in travel and tourism, Europe is leading the world with green destinations, in countries with high sustainability rankings. Low cost carriers flying Low cost carriers are driving growth in mature air markets and are becoming high strong contributors in the emerging economies.
Mid-priced and extended stay hotels Evolving technologies changing travel retail Across the globe, mid-range hotels are thriving as consumers continue to look for economies, with extended stay outlets showing resilience with business travellers. The rise in online bookings and the growth of social media in the travel industry has shifted power to the consumer, as well as boosting the profile of technology companies within the booking process.
Euromonitor International
INTRODUCTION OUTLOOK 2012 TOURISM PERFORMANCE CONSUMERS IN THE DRIVING SEAT LCCS AND THE INDUSTRY SHAKEOUT HOTELS AS LIFESTYLE-SETTERS TECHNOLOGY A GAME-CHANGER
OUTLOOK 2012
Key stumbling blocks include Greece, where continued austerity measures were passed in February 2012 as a condition for a further EU and IMF loan. Italy, Portugal and Spain are also at risk, with further cuts to credit ratings in February 2012 due to their increased vulnerability within the debt crisis.
Euromonitor International
OUTLOOK 2012
Inflation Down across the globe, but does this indicate a slowdown?
Unemployment Over 200 million globally, developed countries hit particularly hard
Weak Demand
Civil Unrest Economic uncertainty could trigger riots. Very contagious, can spread across a region eg MENA
Euromonitor International
OUTLOOK 2012
Eurozone
Euromonitor International
France
Arrivals
Germany
Average spend per trip
Italy
Spain
OUTLOOK 2012
By 2016, numbers are expected to have recovered to pre-crisisNetherlands Italy 2007 levels. Displacement of visitors is a major concern, but there is still growth in arrivals expected for 2012 and 2013. Visits from the BRIC nations are growing due to these countries' strong economic development, but numbers remain low. The long-term tourism legacy from the Games remains uncertain. Hotels chains have expanded, particularly the budget players. Transportation links have improved, but UK Airport Departure Duty and the EU's Emissions Trading System may hamper future arrivals.
Euromonitor International
Poland Australia Belgium India Russia China Brazil 0 1,000 2,000 000 trips 2012 2011 3,000 4,000
OUTLOOK 2012
10
Instability continues in a number of countries, particularly Egypt, Syria and Bahrain. Despite the overthrow of the government in 2011, Egypt's protestors continue to demand democratic reform. The Middle East experienced a "double dip" in tourism arrivals, with sharp falls in 2009 and 2011. Arrivals fell by more than 7% in 2009 and again in 2011, by close to 8%, while 2010 saw an 8% increase. The Middle East is an important source region for world travel and tourism, not just because of the rapidly growing number of trips taken abroad, but more importantly, because of the high purchasing power of consumers in countries like Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. Outbound travel continues to support growth in the air transportation sector, and the large regional players, like Emirates Airlines and Qatar Airways, are still among the fastest growing global airlines. However, smaller players are threatened by the current conditions across the region.
Saudi Arabia
Morocco
Egypt
Euromonitor International
OUTLOOK 2012
11
Euromonitor International
OUTLOOK 2012
12
Civil unrest With presidential elections scheduled for March 2012, there is significant potential for civil unrest before and after the event. However, recent protests in 2011 about the State Duma elections were peaceful, indicating increased tolerance within the country.
Russia: Air Passengers Carried by Category % Growth 2011-2016
30 25 20 % growth 15 10 5 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 LCC 2015 2016 Charter Schedule
OUTLOOK 2012
13
Other
Food
Accommodation
Entertainment
Excursions
OUTLOOK 2012
14
Euromonitor International
INTRODUCTION OUTLOOK 2012 TOURISM PERFORMANCE CONSUMERS IN THE DRIVING SEAT LCCS AND THE INDUSTRY SHAKEOUT HOTELS AS LIFESTYLE-SETTERS TECHNOLOGY A GAME-CHANGER
TOURISM PERFORMANCE
16
3 % y-on-y growth
-1
-2 2011 2012 GDP 2013 Arrivals 2014 2015 2016 Average spend
TOURISM PERFORMANCE
17
0
Euromonitor International
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
TOURISM PERFORMANCE
18
2016
TOURISM PERFORMANCE
19
India
China Russia
US UK
Brazil
Germany
Note: Size of bubble reflects average outbound spending per departure US$ 2012
Euromonitor International
TOURISM PERFORMANCE
20
Largest Increases in Incoming Tourist Receipts US$ 2011-2016 Country US China Turkey South Africa India Japan Hong Kong Macau South Korea Malaysia
Euromonitor International
Largest Increases in Arrivals 2011-2016 Country US China Turkey Saudi Arabia Hong Kong Thailand Russia Singapore Malaysia UAE % CAGR 2011-2016 5.3 5.4 6.9 10.4 6.2 5.9 4.8 5.3 3.0 7.3 Absolute trips 2011-2016 18,413.5 16,874.0 13,092.8 8,286.3 7,622.7 6,115.0 5,939.5 5,908.5 4,116.5 4,092.2
% CAGR 2011-2016 7.0 6.3 12.1 12.9 10.9 10.9 8.8 6.1 9.7 7.1
Absolute US$ 2011-2016 60,258 26,972 10,963 10,434 10,328 10,012 8,883 8,284 8,222 7,446
TOURISM PERFORMANCE
21
Rank
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Arrivals 2011 '000 21,830 19,818 15,106 13,315 12,357 12,052 10,895 10,038 9,765 8,876
% volume growth 2010-2011 9.3 2.2 2.7 16.0 12.5 13.3 6.8 3.5 20.2 8.9
TOURISM PERFORMANCE
22
The UK continued with its unpopular Air Passenger Duty, which is scheduled to rise again in April 2012. Passengers will pay according to the distance from London Heathrow, ranging from 13 for a flight of 2,000 miles or less, up to 92 for further than 6,000 miles for the reduced rate category.
The ETS was implemented in January, aimed at cutting carbon emission by levying a charge on flights within EU airspace. The EU estimates that the ETS will add between 2 and 12 for each passenger. There has been criticism from many countries, including the US, Canada and China, with the latter banning Chinese airlines from joining the scheme, and from increasing fares or adding new charges due to the tax. Venice, Rome and Florence implemented the unpopular hotel tax in 2011, which is pegged to the star rating of hotels. Visitors are charged per night, per star rating, for a maximum of five nights. A long-running plan for a similar bed tax in Edinburgh was abandoned in January 2012. The Australian government passed legislation in 2011 to introduce a carbon tax, which will provide the foundations for a national emissions trading scheme. This is likely to impact airlines, with the resulting charges passed onto passengers.
EU Emissions Trading
Hotel taxes
Euromonitor International
TOURISM PERFORMANCE
23
BRICs Top Three Outbound Destinations 2011 1. US 2. Argentina 3. France 1. Hong Kong 2. Macau 3. Taiwan
Brazil
China
India
Russia
TOURISM PERFORMANCE
24
INTRODUCTION OUTLOOK 2012 TOURISM PERFORMANCE CONSUMERS IN THE DRIVING SEAT LCCS AND THE INDUSTRY SHAKEOUT HOTELS AS LIFESTYLE-SETTERS TECHNOLOGY A GAME-CHANGER
26
Shifting consumer loyalty An effect of the recession was the loss of consumer loyalty. Many travellers simply opted for the best price when faced with a choice of providers. Direct suppliers fought against this with loyalty cards and now intermediaries are as well. The interactive nature of social media such as Facebook and Twitter means that brands are now accessible to consumers. In this two-way dialogue, companies seek brand loyalty, and consumers provide feedback on services, as well as reviews. Emerging consumers, different needs? The emerging markets are embracing new technologies, and the vast number of consumers are likely to drive product innovation.
1,186,800 4,303,777
335,421 447,304
1,372,697 6,252,234
395,706 623,290
27
How Important Are the Following Factors/Descriptors to You When Considering Purchasing a Product or Service?
100%
80%
% respondents
60%
40%
20%
0% Strong brand name Recommended by friends and family Not at all important/unimportant Availability Price Quality Important
28
Dreaming
Planning
Booking
Experiencing
Sharing
Source: Google
29
Increased demand for customised luxury travel services is a concern for travel companies, as it is time consuming and involves higher operational costs. However, offering differentiation secures a future which the mass market may not have.
Consumers from emerging markets are more tied into brands and status, with many experiencing the fruits of consumerism for the first time.
Global Luxury Hotels vs Luxury Goods Sales % Growth 2010-2011 % value growth World 2010-2011 Luxury hotels 4.4 -0.3
Green concerns and social responsibility were Luxury goods embraced by the rich, with products now allowing these consumers to salve their conscience while still indulging.
Euromonitor International
30
World's Leading Countries for Travel and Tourism Sustainability Arrivals '000 World Economic Forum Country 2011 Sustainability Ranking Sweden 9,771 1 Switzerland 12,777 2 Denmark 6,230 3 Germany 28,101 4 Austria 22,289 5 Norway 5,033 6 Finland 3,773 7 Rwanda 723 8 France 78,970 9 Netherlands 11,373 10
Source: World Economic Forum, Euromonitor International
31
Reviewing 2006/2011 and examining the five ahead indicates the changing consumer demand for different travel categories. Once billed as a resilient success story, spas struggled during the global economic crisis and will be outperformed by medical tourism and leisure cruises in the difficult years ahead. The value of rail travel is predicted to carry on growing, with consumers opting for its greener credentials, as well as ever-shortening journey times and relatively hassle-free procedures. Medical tourism is predicted to show solid growth, as consumers continue to opt for medical procedures overseas in order to save costs.
Rail
Medical tourism
Leisure cruise
Shopping
Spas
Leisure packages -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8
Popular treatments include dental, cosmetic, orthopaedic, obesity and fertility. Latin America and the Middle East and Africa are expected to be key growth markets.
Euromonitor International
INTRODUCTION OUTLOOK 2012 TOURISM PERFORMANCE CONSUMERS IN THE DRIVING SEAT LCCS AND THE INDUSTRY SHAKEOUT HOTELS AS LIFESTYLE-SETTERS TECHNOLOGY A GAME-CHANGER
33
UK 2016
China
India
Mexico
Germany
34
Stimulating capacity
The Philippines will lead the world in airline capacity growth over Fastest Growing Airline Capacity by 2011-2016. The country is ideally positioned for growth with Country % CAGR 2011-2016 expatriate workers seeking cheap air fare home. Cebu Pacific and Actual Capacity Zest Air are the leading LCCs, but face increasing competition growth in Country % CAGR from AirPhil Express, a subsidiary of Philippines Airlines. capacity Vietnam is expected to show substantial growth as LCCs become increasingly established. It is still a fairly recent concept, boosted by the global economic crisis, as existing travellers sought to economise on transportation costs. The leading LCC is JetStar Pacific (part owned by Qantas), which competes directly with Vietnam Airlines. Local newcomer VietJet Air started domestic operations in December 2011.
2011-2016 '000 people 57,670 56,844 48,234 166,039 40,004 52,489 7,799 56,828 11,779 40,294
Philippines
Vietnam Indonesia India Sweden
22.4
16.4 12.6 12.2 11.0 8.7 8.6
India is predicted to show the highest increase in actual capacity between 2011 and 2016, with over 166 million new seats. The Turkey domestic market is already the world's fifth largest by seat capacity New Zealand but is very competitive, with seven airlines serving the major Thailand routes. With price a key driver for LCCs, it is likely that there will be further consolidation or exits in India, following MDMR and Paramount, which suspended services in 2009 and 2010, respectively.
Euromonitor International
8.4
8.4 7.8
35
The Middle East big three Emirates, Etihad and 2012 will see a number of legacy airlines Qatar Airways continue to thrive, expanding establishing LCCs. These include Thai Airways' across the globe and placing orders for new planes. Smile, Singapore Airlines' Scoot, and Peach, a joint Emirates launched new routes in 2012 to Dublin, venture between ANA and First Eastern Investment Company. Rio de Janeiro and Buenos Aires from its hub in Dubai. Etihad started flying to Tripoli, Chengdu and Dusseldorf from Abu Dhabi. Qatar Airways touts Helsinki, Perth and Kigala as for 2012. Many LCCs in Asia Pacific have a younger online audience than other regions, largely due to the highly web-centric models adopted.
Africa focus
Both Air Asia and easyJet founder Stelios Haji Air Asia X announced in January 2012 that it Ioannou have shown interest in establishing a low would stop its long haul flights to Paris, London, cost carrier in Africa. Delhi and Mumbai. While there are existing LCC operations in South Africa, Kenya and Nigeria, as well as in North Africa, the market is still relatively undeveloped. Reasons for the exit include the Air Passenger Duty in the UK, the European ETS, poor European economic conditions, high fuel prices, Indian airport charges and visa difficulties for Malaysians. However, JetStar and Scoot are both eyeing low cost long haul, so there may be another try.
Euromonitor International
36
Renewal of fleets
Going under
or rescued
easyJet is among the many LCCs actively pushing for a larger share of business travellers. The airline recently launched a flexi-fare product aimed at corporate travellers.
OPPORTUNITIES
Aeroplane purchases are The recent demise of Despite growth in up, the biggest of which is Hungarian flag carrier European air traffic, Norwegian Air Shuttle Malev and budget players, weaker airlines face announcing plans to buy Air Australia and Spanair being taken over or 222 aircraft by 2020. illustrates the tough going under, with Air Southwest Airlines is operating environment for Berlin recently rescued upgrading with the new airlines including budget. by funds from Etihad. Boeing Sky Interior.
THREATS
Innovation
Unfair advantage
Air Baltic became the With struggling airlines first to offer car sales in going under, new routes the sky with a specially are becoming available to designed Mini Cooper, as stronger competitors, well as its Air Baltic bag, widening their reach which avoids baggage across regions. charges for one year after purchase.
Euromonitor International
Airlines are facing an Striking workers from increased threat of Spanair accused Ryanair industrial action from air of having an unfair crew and ground staff, as advantage in the concerns about job subsidies it receives security and wages rise. from airports. These include lower taxes and ground handling rates.
INTRODUCTION OUTLOOK 2012 TOURISM PERFORMANCE CONSUMERS IN THE DRIVING SEAT LCCS AND THE INDUSTRY SHAKEOUT HOTELS AS LIFESTYLE-SETTERS TECHNOLOGY A GAME-CHANGER
HOTELS AS LIFESTYLE-SETTERS
38
HOTELS AS LIFESTYLE-SETTERS
39
Specification for the Indian market also occurred, with the budget hotel, Premier Inn, adding conference and banqueting facilities to properties in Bangalore and Delhi. Accor brand, Ibis, also customised its properties, adding restaurants and gyms in India.
New formats Extended stay hotels showed resilience through the downturn, with properties offering discounted rates for long stays and providing kitchen facilities for guests. Key outlets include Residence Inn by Marriott and Staybridge Suites by IHG.
Euromonitor International
HOTELS AS LIFESTYLE-SETTERS
40
Emerging markets continue to be the focus for chain expansion, with China and India leading the way in new openings. Brazil, with an eye on global sporting activities in 2014 and 2016, is also seeing great dynamism. Hotels are continually enhancing their online presence to boost overall distribution, as well as stay in touch with customers. Roomkey.com was recently launched by six hotel companies as a hotel search engine.
Discounting through online travel agents, vouchers or flash sale sites potentially can damage brand reputation, which is difficult to regain.
Rate erosion
Hotels continue to face significant rate erosion from online travel agents and multi-channel distribution. With increased rate transparency, hotels will find it difficult to put up prices.
Euromonitor International
INTRODUCTION OUTLOOK 2012 TOURISM PERFORMANCE CONSUMERS IN THE DRIVING SEAT LCCS AND THE INDUSTRY SHAKEOUT HOTELS AS LIFESTYLE-SETTERS TECHNOLOGY A GAME-CHANGER
TECHNOLOGY A GAME-CHANGER
42
Consolidation is significant, with two new important players created in Europe in 2011: Odigeo and BCD Holdings.
When absolute growth is looked at over 2011-2016, the US still dominates. However, China and India are poised to grow rapidly, with their absolute growth estimated at nearly U$S5 billion each. With the emerging economies already home to 78% of the world's mobile phone subscribers in 2011, the direction of future growth is clear.
Euromonitor International
Online Travel Retail Sales US$ Million and % CAGR by Key Country 2011/2016
120,000 100,000 80,000 US$ million 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 US Japan Germany UK Retail sales 2011 China Canada India France Retail sales 2016 24 20 16 12 8 4 0 % CAGR
TECHNOLOGY A GAME-CHANGER
43
These technology companies are key Online purchasing from Expedia, Orbitz and Travelocity players in travel, and are increasingly Internet TV will become more all affiliated with high street travel widespread as travel companies retailers to cater for customers influential in the booking process. embrace the concept. who want assistance in using 2011 saw Google launching into the online travel services. Viewers will be able to watch search process, with Google Hotel travel programmes and Finder and Google Flights. The OTAs are tapping into a immediately book for the same customer segment who are either Facebook plays a diverse role, from destination or hotel, with not able or not willing to buy targeted advertising to building online. loyalty and brand promotion through companies building upon the emotional connection provided High street travel agents are able its Like function. by the programme. to stay in the increasingly The iTravel application is Apple's competitive market, albeit playing first official foray in travel, and will a more consultative role. soon be launched. iTravel integrates Mobile booking transportation booking, check-in and Google predicts that 8% of Expedia launched a rewards social networking, turning an iPhone mobile users will be booking programme designed to keep into an electronic ticket and travel customers returning to the site, travel from their smartphones agent. instead of booking with direct in 2012. suppliers like hotels and airlines.
Euromonitor International
TECHNOLOGY A GAME-CHANGER
44
Geolocalisation and NFC technology are key in developing personal travel applications and services. Opportunities in one region of the world are available to everyone due to the global nature of the internet. The BRICs are very active in social media.
Global village
The speed of changing technologies may alienate consumers and deter those who prefer a slower paced sales process. Despite the hype, global offline sales still account for the bulk of travel sales. Disagreements between suppliers, OTAs and technology companies are becoming more commonplace. With brand reputations allegedly being damaged by flash sales and discounting, direct suppliers are more assertive with OTAs.
Disputes
Euromonitor International
REPORT DEFINITIONS
45
Departures refers to the number of residents that travel abroad from their country of residence to another destination country for leisure or business purposes. Residents include students residing abroad for a period of over 12 months. Destination reflects the main departure destination recorded at the country of residence. Measured in trips. Outgoing tourism expenditure is spending on travel and tourism products and services by outbound tourists abroad, including their payments to foreign carriers for international transport. Definitions for industry-specific and other terminology/abbreviations used in this report: CAGR compound annual growth rate IMF International Monetary Fund MENA Middle East North Africa ADR average daily room rate RevPAR revenue per available room LCC low cost carrier OTA online travel agent
REPORT DEFINITIONS
46
Category definitions
Hotel outlets that provide lodging include independent and chained operators as well as all company owned, leased, managed and franchised outlets. Aparthotels are included. Rail covers travel by passenger train, excluding freight and car transport. Includes cablecars. Covers what is spent on rail in that country by both international and domestic tourists. Online travel retail sales include traditional travel retailers including travel agents, tour operators and exchange service providers that have a web platform for sales. Also includes online travel agents, brokers and intermediaries. Cruise includes sales of cruises through tour operators and travel agents. Includes flights and other pre-paid products/services such as spas, food, drinks, entertainment, excursions etc. Package holidays include traditional package holidays which are fixed by tour operators and travel agents and include transportation, accommodation along with a choice of food options. Includes dynamically packaged holidays.
Luxury: includes luxury, upper upscale and upscale chained and independent outlets and their corresponding sales. Includes 4 to 5 stars.
Mid-priced: includes mid-priced chained and independent outlets and their corresponding sales that may or may not serve food and beverages. Includes 3 stars. Budget: includes budget chained and independent outlets and their corresponding sales. Includes 0-2 stars. Tourism expenditure on shopping includes spending by international and domestic tourists on food and non-food purchases. Duty-free is included. Air transport includes schedule, charter and low cost carriers. Excludes all transit.
Euromonitor International
47
Experience more...
This research from Euromonitor International is part of a global strategic intelligence system offering a complete picture of the commercial environment. Also available:
Global Briefings Timely, relevant insight published every month on the state of the market, emerging trends and pressing industry issues. Interactive Statistical Database Complete market analysis at a levels of detail beyond any other source. Market sizes, market shares, distribution channels and forecasts. Learn More To find out more about Euromonitor International, please visit www.euromonitor.com or contact your local Euromonitor International office: London +44 0 20 7251 8024 Chicago +1 312 922 1115 Singapore +65 6429 0590
Shanghai +86 21 6372 6288 Strategy Briefings Executive debate on the global trends changing the consumer markets of Vilnius +370 5 243 1577 Dubai +971 4 372 4363 the future. Global Company Profiles The competitive positioning and strategic direction of leading companies including uniquely sector-specific sales and share data. Country Market Insight Reports The key drivers influencing the industry in each country; comprehensive coverage of supply-side and demand trends and how they shape the future outlook.
Euromonitor International
Cape Town +27 21 552 0037 Santiago +56 2 915 7200 Sydney +61 2 9275 8869 Tokyo +81 3-5403-4790 Bangalore +91 80 49040500