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Forecasting
CHAPTER
Forecasting
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
Operations Management, Eighth Edition, by William J. Stevenson Copyright 2005 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
3-2
Forecasting
FORECAST:
A statement about the future value of a variable of interest such as demand. Forecasts affect decisions and activities throughout an organization Accounting, finance Human resources Marketing MIS Operations Product / service design
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Forecasting
Uses of Forecasts
Cost/profit estimates Cash flow and funding
Accounting Finance
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Forecasting
Assumes causal system past ==> future Forecasts rarely perfect because of randomness
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Forecasting
Timely
Reliable
Accurate
Written
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Forecasting
The forecast
Step 5 Prepare the forecast Step 4 Gather and analyze data Step 3 Select a forecasting technique
Step 2 Establish a time horizon Step 1 Determine purpose of forecast
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Forecasting
Types of Forecasts
Judgmental - uses subjective inputs Time series - uses historical data assuming the future will be like the past Associative models - uses explanatory variables to predict the future
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Forecasting
Judgmental Forecasts
Executive opinions
Sales force opinions Consumer surveys Outside opinion method
Delphi
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Forecasting
Trend - long-term movement in data Seasonality - short-term regular variations in data Cycle wavelike variations of more than one years duration Irregular variations - caused by unusual circumstances Random variations - caused by chance
3-10 Forecasting
Forecast Variations
Irregular variatio n
Figure 3.1
Trend
Cycles
90 89 88 Seasonal variations
3-11 Forecasting
Naive Forecasts
Uh, give me a minute.... We sold 250 wheels last week.... Now, next week we should sell....
The forecast for any period equals the previous periods actual value.
3-12 Forecasting
Nave Forecasts
Simple to use Virtually no cost Quick and easy to prepare Data analysis is nonexistent Easily understandable Cannot provide high accuracy Can be a standard for accuracy
3-13 Forecasting
Seasonal variations
3-14 Forecasting
3-15 Forecasting
Moving Averages
Moving average A technique that averages a number of recent actual values, updated as new values become available.
MAn =
Ai i=1 n
Weighted moving average More recent values in a series are given more weight in computing the forecast.
3-16 Forecasting
MA5
47 45 43 41 39 37 35 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
n
MA3
8 9 10 11 12
MAn =
Ai i=1 n
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Exponential Smoothing
Therefore, we should give more weight to the more recent time periods when forecasting.
3-18 Forecasting
Exponential Smoothing
Weighted averaging method based on previous forecast plus a percentage of the forecast error A-F is the error term, is the % feedback
3-19 Forecasting
3-20 Forecasting
50
Demand
.4
45 40 35 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
.1
9 10 11 12
Period
3-21 Forecasting
Figure 3.5
Parabolic
Exponential
Growth
3-22 Forecasting
Ft = a + bt
0 1 2 Ft = Forecast for period t t = Specified number of time periods a = Value of Ft at t = 0 b = Slope of the line 3 4 5 t
3-23 Forecasting
Calculating a and b
n (ty) - t y b = 2 2 n t - ( t)
y - b t a = n
3-24 Forecasting
t = 15 t2 = 55 2 ( t) = 225
y = 812 ty = 2499
3-25 Forecasting
b =
y = 143.5 + 6.3t
3-26 Forecasting
Associative Forecasting
3-27 Forecasting
Computed relationship
50 40 30 20 10 0 0 5 10 15 20 25
3-28 Forecasting
Forecast Accuracy
3-29 Forecasting
MAD
n
MSE = ( Actual forecast)
2
n -1
( Actual forecas t n
MAPE =
/ Actual*100)
3-30 Forecasting
Example 10
Forecast 215 216 215 214 211 214 217 216 (A-F) 2 -3 1 -4 2 5 -1 -4 -2 |A-F| 2 3 1 4 2 5 1 4 22 (A-F)^2 4 9 1 16 4 25 1 16 76 (|A-F|/Actual)*100 0.92 1.41 0.46 1.90 0.94 2.28 0.46 1.89 10.26
Period 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
3-31 Forecasting
Control chart
A visual tool for monitoring forecast errors Used to detect non-randomness in errors
All errors are within the control limits No patterns, such as trends or cycles, are present
3-32 Forecasting
3-33 Forecasting
Tracking Signal
Tracking signal
Ratio of cumulative error to MAD
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Cost Accuracy
Historical data Computers Time needed to gather and analyze the data Forecast horizon
3-35 Forecasting
Exponential Smoothing
3-36 Forecasting
3-37 Forecasting
3-38 Forecasting
Workload/Scheduling