Theories of Demographic Transition

Demographic Transition is

the phenomenon of a countrys death and birth rates changing over time from high to low. Over time, the average family size has decreased in every country of the world. In approximately 60 countries, the total fertility rate has fallen to less than 2.1. Canada is one of these countries.

Stage 1: Pre-transition
Stable population High birth rate and

death rate Fertility rate of 8 or more Extremely high infant mortality rate Many young children, very few older people No country in the world is still at the pretransition stage.

Stage 2: Early Transition

Very rapid increase in

population Death rate declines rapidly Fertility rate remains high Infant mortality rate declines High birth rate Many young people Early Transition is marked by death control

Stage 3: Late Transition

Population growth slows

down Birth rate declines rapidly Death rate declines slowly Fertility rate declines Increasing number of older people Late Transition is marked by birth control

Stage 4: Post-transition
Stable or slow

population increase Low birth rate and death rate Fertility rate less than 2.1 Many older people which leads to a high dependency load

Stage 5:? (doesnt fit the model, but is happening now!)

Declining population

Extremely low birth rate

Death rate is low Fertility rate less than 2

A lot of older people

Is it permanent or just a

temporary trend???

Optimistic vs. Pessimistic

Optimistic Views
Historically, large families and a

growing population have been desirable for various reasons. 1. Religious Reasons: More Children = More Followers and More Followers = More Political/Social Power 2. Non-Religious Reasons: Leaders needed larger numbers to support their economic and military expansionist desires.

Cornucopians
Cornucopians believe that humans have the ability to

find technological innovations that will increase the earths carrying capacity. The Agricultural and Industrial Revolutions would be their evidence. A cornucopian may say that the next major human innovation will solve our energy crisis without damaging the environment.

Bogue (1960s)
D.J Bogues theory of demographic regulation

stated that over an extended period of time, a society will naturally limit its own population in accordance to the Earths ability to support it. Bogues theory is supported by the demographic transition model and in the fact that some countries have tried to limit their population growth in recent years.

Pessimistic Views
Critics have all made the

same basic point Earth is of finite size and has an ability to support only a certain level of population.

Thomas Malthus
Warned of population

William Catton
Expanded on Malthus views

problems in his writing in 1798.

Pop. grows in a geometric

in 1980s.
Introduced idea of Earths

sequence (1,2,4,8,16. . .) while food grows arithmetically (1,2,3,4 . . .)

Only result is onset of

carrying capacity; it can only be exceeded at the expense of the environment.

Suggests were beyond the

misery. (famine, disease, war)

carrying capacity now only because were using up the worlds fixed stock of natural resources for future generations.