Utility Forecasting & Planning

MADRI Meeting March 7, 2006

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Purpose
This presentation is intended to be a general outline of utility forecasting and planning techniques not specific to any one company. It is, however, intended to represent a utility that is a PJM member, and is following a process that works with the PJM planning regime.

Planning Criteria
A utilitys planning criteria are intended to be a guide to provide for the safe, reliable and low cost development of the utilitys electrical system as loads increase and reinforcements and/or new facilities are required.

Basic Principles
With all facilities in service: Load must be within normal equipment ratings
Must provide acceptable voltages

Basic Principles
With the outage of any single piece of equipment (N-1 Criteria Violation): Affected load must be within the emergency rating of the remaining facilities System must provide minimum emergency voltages

Basic Principles
N-1 criteria are applied in a similar fashion to: Substations Distribution Facilities Subtransmission Facilities Transmission Facilities

Basic Principles
Transmission Planning Criteria Goes beyond N-1 N-2 (After the N-1 outage and readjustment, loss of an additional element.) Towerline outages Stuck breakers Transmission planning criteria are more restrictive than operating criteria to account for potential new generation, and network facilities forecasted and unplanned outages.
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Distribution Planning
Load Forecasting Substation Feeder Distribution Circuit Reinforcement Ratings N-1 Criteria New Business Connected vs. Estimated Loads Load Build-up Schedules Load Shifting
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Substation Forecast/Planning Process Diagram for a Typical Utility

Substation Forecast/Planning Process Data Collection

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Substation Forecast/Planning Process Data Collection

CMMS Peak Load Data Adjustments

MV-90 Remote Metering Substation Data Concentrators Inspection Data Data Scrubbing

Voltage Reduction, Cogen, etc.

Reference Data

Station Type, Reactive, Power Factors, Feeder Info, etc.

Load Transfers

Historical Trends Peak Adjustments

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Substation Forecast/Planning Process Weather Normalization

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Substation Forecast/Planning Process Weather Normalization

Weighted Temperature-Humidity Index (WTHI) 3-Day Heat Build-Up 10-5-2 Weighting Factors Normalization Standard 50/50 Historical Probability 84 Degrees WTHI Normalized Peak Selection Load vs. WTHI Correlation Exclusion of Data Points Below 73 Degrees WTHI Exclusion of NonTrend Data Points Current Year Weather Sensitivity 5-Year Weather Sensitivity
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Substation Forecast/Planning Process Substation & Area Forecasts

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Substation Forecast/Planning Process Substation & Area Forecasts

Growth Factors General Growth Load growth of existing and small additional customers is generally consistent with historical trending Specific Growth Load growth attributable to major new business projects greater than 300 kW
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Diversified Specific Growth

Adjusted for: Over-estimation of Loads Load Profiles Delayed Project Completions Customer to Feeder Coincidence Feeder to Substation Coincidence

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Coincidence Factor
Substations feed a number of different types of load Not all of the load will peak at the same time (diversity) Expect any implementation of time-of-use or RTP tariffs to cause interval customers to change/modify load patterns

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Substation Forecast/Planning Process Substation & Area Forecasts

Forecast Worksheet Historical Trending Feeder Peak Synthesis Forecast Performance Short Range Forecast 4-Year Forecast Long Term Forecast 9 Scenarios High Tension Service Customer Forecasts Developed by utility Area (Switching Station) Forecasts Coincidized Substation Roll-Up System Forecast Roll-Up Coincidized HV Substation & Area Forecast Roll-Up

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Substation Forecast/Planning Process Substation & Area Planning

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Substation Forecast/Planning Process Substation & Area Planning

Substation & Area Capacity Firm N-1 Criteria Includes Automatic ICT Transfers Capacity Processing Load vs. Capacity Analysis Load Relief Modeling Power Factor Correction Load Transfers Dispersed Generation System Reinforcement Modeling

Interstation Capacity Ties Station Reinforcement New Station Generation (As Permitted)

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Feeder Forecast Process Data Acquisition

Substation Operators collect data during station inspections via a Mobile Data Terminal (MDT) Data is electronically uploaded into CMMS Data is extracted into spreadsheet Data is scrubbed no data, broken meter, tie recloser operations, etc. Summer peak load is selected and utilized to develop the individual feeder forecasts
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Feeder Forecasting Process Load vs. Capacity Analysis

Peak data is used for Station Feeder Forecasts (Feeder Utilization) Data is processed to evaluate overloaded circuits Forecast sheets are used when a New Business Plan of Supply is submitted Is capacity available? If not, how can circuit be relieved? Reinforcement jobs and New Business jobs are tracked on the Station Feeder Forecast sheets
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How Do Projects Emerge?

Individual substation overloads are not as critical if sufficient ties exist Greatest concern - area overloads consisting of two (2) or more substations Could cause cascading overloads and area outages Time to reinforce when area overloads are present or could reasonably be expected to occur in the near future

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New Business
Division Planners are typically concerned with new business projects 300-kVA and greater Voltage / Service characteristics can range from secondary to sub-transmission (277/480 volts up to 69-kV) Types of New Business can vary from Network Service to Substation / High Tension service

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Transmission Planning
Entity Load Forecast Regional Transmission Expansion Planning (RTEP) Process Lead by PJM and coordinated with Transmission Owners Incorporation of utilitys T&D Planning results into PJMs RTEP Process, PJM will begin zonal forecasting utility loads this year Baseline Reinforcements Merchant Generation/Transmission Interconnections & Reinforcements Analyses & Tools Short Circuit Load Flow System Stability LOLP (Loss of Load Probability) Operations Support
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Entity Load Forecast

The Entity Load Forecast is an independent forecast of summer peak, performed by PJM Used to set Zonal Scaling Factors in eCapacity and sets capacity obligations for all LSEs Relates growth in the PJM normalized peak to the U.S. economy (Gross Domestic Product) This load is allocated to specific nodes using the various utilitys Distribution Substation Forecasts
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Any Questions?

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