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To provide world class State-of-art technology telecom
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To Provide world class telecom infrastructure in its
area of operation and to
contribute to the growth.
Climate Change
and Global Warming
Debunking Common Misconceptions
Climate predictability
Climate forcing
Climate models
Emission scenarios & climate of the 21
st
century
Responding to Climate Skeptics
- Concern about global warming is based on recent temperature
trends
- 9 of the 10 hottest years on record
- If somebody could find some other cause for recent warming, we
could quit worrying
- Global warming is a theory based on complicated computer
models
- CO
2
is air pollution cutting emissions will lead to falling CO
2

and therefore cooling
- If we stop burning coal, well freeze in the dark!
Media Myths about Climate
Be skeptical be very skeptical !
Global Warming is
Based on Common Sense

not computer models
not recent temperatures
not complicated!
Energy In = Energy Out
Planetary Energy Balance
2 2 4
(1 ) 4 S R R T o t t o =
o
18 C T ~
But the observed T
s
is about 15 C
- Nearly all of the air is made
of oxygen (O
2
) and nitrogen
(N
2
) in which two atoms of
the same element share
electrons

- Infrared (heat) energy
radiated up from the surface
can be absorbed by these
molecules, but not very well




Dancing Molecules and Heat Rays!
N N
O O
Diatomic molecules can
vibrate back and forth
like balls on a spring, but
the ends are identical
- Carbon dioxide (CO
2
) and
water vapor (H
2
O) are
different!

- They have many more ways
to vibrate and rotate, so they
are very good at absorbing
and emitting infrared (heat)
radiation


Dancing Molecules and Heat Rays!
Molecules that have many
ways to wiggle are called
Greenhouse molecules
O O C
H
H
O
Absorption spectrum of CO2 was measured by John Tyndall in 1863
- Doubling CO
2
would add
4 watts to every square
meter of the surface of
the Earth, 24/7
- Doing that would make
the surface warmer
- This was known before
light bulbs were invented!

Common Sense
4 Watts
J ohn Tyndall, J anuary 1863
Expectations of future warming are based on extrapolation of recent warming trends



Common Misconception #1
WRONG! They are based on the idea that when
we add energy to the surface, it will warm up



19
th
Century Climate Physics
(Svante Arrhenius, 1897)
S
0
(1o)tr
2
= coT
S
4
(4tr
2
)
S
0
(1o) = 4coT
S
4
0 = 4AcoT
S
4
+ 4c(4oT
S
4
)
Differentiate, apply chain rule
AT
S
=
T
S
4
Ac
c
Arrhenius worked out a simple formula
for the change in surface temperature
given a change in effective
atmospheric emissivity due to CO
2

Earth
T
s
aS
0
esT
s
4
S
0
19
th
Century Climate
Physics(contd)
Plug in measured values
AT
S
=
T
S
4
Ac
c
coT
S
4
= 240 W m
-2

(from satellite data)
(Ac)(oT
S
4
) = 4
W m
-2

(for 2 x CO
2

from radiative transfer)
Ac
c
=
4
240
T
s
= 288 K
AT
S
=
288K
4

4
240
|
\

|
.
|
= 1.2K
For CO
2
alone (no feedback), expect about 2 F warming for 2 x CO
2
- Positive Feedbacks
(amplify changes)
- Water vapor
- Ice-albedo
- High clouds
Climate Feedback Processes
De

DT
S
Dvapor

D albedo

D
LW

D hi cloud

D lo cloud

Negative feedbacks
(damp changes)
Longwave cooling
Low clouds

Learning from the Past
Past climate changes reveal climate sensitivity
Tiny Bubbles Priceless
ice age
ice age ice age
ice age
- Over the past 420,000 years
atmospheric CO
2
has varied
between 180 and 280 ppm,
beating in time with the last
four glacial cycles

CO
2
and the Ice Ages
370 ppm in 2000
Vostok (400k yr) Ice Core data (Petit et al, 1999)
175
200
225
250
275
300
-400000 -300000 -200000 -100000 0
Year
ice
ice
ice
ice
CO
2

- At the Last Glacial Maximum
(~ 18k years ago) surface temp ~ 6 C colder
- CO
2
was ~ 180 ppm
(weaker greenhouse, 4.1 W m
-2
more LW)
- Brighter surface due to snow and ice, estimate
3.4 W m
-2
more reflected solar
Estimating Total Climate Sensitivity
Or, for doubling of CO
2
: expect 4 x 0.8 =3.2 C of
warming
=
AT
S
AF
=
T
S
(now) T
S
(then)
F(now) F(then)
=
6K
(4.1+ 3.4)Wm
2
= 0.8
K
Wm
2
- Forcing: changes in properties of atmosphere as
measured by spectroscopy
(4 W m
-2
per doubling of CO
2
)

- Feedback: both positive and negative, total response to
forcing estimated from Ice Age climate data (about 0.8
C per W m
-2
)

- Response: about 3.2 C warming for 2 x CO
2
Review: 19
th
Century Physics
(updated using paleo-data)
No climate models required just based on observations
(modern calculations agree coincidence?)
- Over the past 420,000 years
atmospheric CO
2
has varied
between 180 and 280 parts
per million, beating in time
with the last four glacial
cycles
- Since the Industrial
Revolution, CO
2
has risen
very rapidly

CO
2
and the Modern Age
370 ppm in 2000
Vostok (400k yr) Ice Core data (Petit et al, 1999)


180
230
280
330
380
-400000 -300000 -200000 -100000 0
year
ice
ice
ice
ice
CO
2

388 ppm in 2009
from measurements
- Over the past 420,000 years
atmospheric CO
2
has varied
between 180 and 280 parts
per million, beating in time
with the last four glacial
cycles
- Since the Industrial
Revolution, CO
2
has risen
very rapidly
- If China & India develop
using 19
th
Century
technology, CO
2
will reach
900 ppm in this century

CO
2
and the Future
Vostok (400k yr) Ice Core data (Petit et al, 1999)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
-400000 -300000 -200000 -100000 0
year
ice
ice ice
ice
CO
2

900 ppm in 2100
388 ppm in 2009
You aint seen nothing yet!
Thank you!
- Nearly all of the air is made
of oxygen (O
2
) and nitrogen
(N
2
) in which two atoms of
the same element share
electrons

- Infrared (heat) energy
radiated up from the surface
can be absorbed by these
molecules, but not very well




Dancing Molecules and Heat Rays!
N N
O O
Diatomic molecules can
vibrate back and forth
like balls on a spring, but
the ends are identical
- Carbon dioxide (CO
2
) and
water vapor (H
2
O) are
different!

- They have many more ways
to vibrate and rotate, so they
are very good at absorbing
and emitting infrared (heat)
radiation


Dancing Molecules and Heat Rays!
Molecules that have many
ways to wiggle are called
Greenhouse molecules
O O C
H
H
O
Absorption spectrum of CO2 was measured by John Tyndall in 1863
- Over the past 420,000 years
atmospheric CO
2
has varied
between 180 and 280 ppm,
beating in time with the last
four glacial cycles

CO
2
and the Ice Ages
370 ppm in 2000
Vostok (400k yr) Ice Core data (Petit et al, 1999)
175
200
225
250
275
300
-400000 -300000 -200000 -100000 0
Year
ice
ice
ice
ice
CO
2

- At the Last Glacial Maximum
(~ 18k years ago) surface temp ~ 6 C colder
- CO
2
was ~ 180 ppm
(weaker greenhouse, 4.1 W m
-2
more LW)
- Brighter surface due to snow and ice, estimate
3.4 W m
-2
more reflected solar
Estimating Total Climate Sensitivity
Or, for doubling of CO
2
: expect 4 x 0.8 =3.2 C of
warming
=
AT
S
AF
=
T
S
(now) T
S
(then)
F(now) F(then)
=
6K
(4.1+ 3.4)Wm
2
= 0.8
K
Wm
2
- Forcing: changes in properties of atmosphere as
measured by spectroscopy
(4 W m
-2
per doubling of CO
2
)

- Feedback: both positive and negative, total response to
forcing estimated from Ice Age climate data (about 0.8
C per W m
-2
)

- Response: about 3.2 C warming for 2 x CO
2
Review: 19
th
Century Physics
(updated using paleo-data)
No climate models required just based on observations
(modern calculations agree coincidence?)
- Over the past 420,000 years
atmospheric CO
2
has varied
between 180 and 280 parts
per million, beating in time
with the last four glacial
cycles
- Since the Industrial
Revolution, CO
2
has risen
very rapidly

CO
2
and the Modern Age
370 ppm in 2000
Vostok (400k yr) Ice Core data (Petit et al, 1999)


180
230
280
330
380
-400000 -300000 -200000 -100000 0
year
ice
ice
ice
ice
CO
2

388 ppm in 2009
from measurements
- Over the past 420,000 years
atmospheric CO
2
has varied
between 180 and 280 parts
per million, beating in time
with the last four glacial
cycles
- Since the Industrial
Revolution, CO
2
has risen
very rapidly
- If China & India develop
using 19
th
Century
technology, CO
2
will reach
900 ppm in this century

CO
2
and the Future
Vostok (400k yr) Ice Core data (Petit et al, 1999)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
-400000 -300000 -200000 -100000 0
year
ice
ice ice
ice
CO
2

900 ppm in 2100
388 ppm in 2009
You aint seen nothing yet!
Thank you!