Panos Michalopoulos John Hourdos University of Minnesota Civil Engineering Department

February 28th, 2007

Project objective: Measure accessibility for periodic evaluation the TC transportation system (LOS)
Needs/requirements
Travel Times
Historical Future estimates

Freeways
From Any ramp to Any ramp 5-15 minute intervals

Arterials
Link travel times

Freeway sections not all instrumented

No queue detectors before 2003 No historical data for most sections especially prior to

Arterials

1994. Gaps and/or errors in loop data

Instrumentation very sparse & no records

Only reliable way that meets needs is simulation

Detailed future Travel Time forecasting Can be combined with Planning tools to incorporate

land use & other planning scenario.

Simulation needs to be on a Metro-wide basis to meet Accessibility project needs Approach should satisfy other needs requiring substantial time and effort
Examining effects of HOT lanes on a corridor/metro-

wide basis. Geometric improvements & planning ATMS/ATIS

Real time incident management Travel Time predictions

Impacts of Transit Improvements/Expansion

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Explore feasibility of Metro-wide simulation in Twin Cities

World wide experience Local stakeholder needs Data requirements & availability Existing tools & suitability Implementation plans

Considered best proven micro-simulators used in practice.

Suitable for both Traffic & Planning
AIMSUN, CUBE, PARAMICS, TRANSMODELER, VISSIM

25 related projects and growing.

Most important presented here

PTV Vision (VISUM +VISSIM)

AIMSUN NG (AIMSUN Planner + AIMSUN)

Hessen, Germany Singapore Barcelona, Spain Lausanne, Switzerland Helsinki, Finland Madrid, Spain Stockholm, Sweden

London, UK Madrid, Spain Birmingham, UK Munich, Germany Berlin, Germany Dubai, UAE Columbus, OH Kansas City Reno, NV Seattle, WA Houston, TX Denver, CO San Diego, CA

PARAMICS
Sydney, AU Xanadu, NY Manhattan, NY IH-94, WisDOT Toronto, CA

TRANSMODELER (very new, Transcad)

Orange County I-5 freeway Louisville, Kentucky Lexington, Kentucky

CORSIM, CUBE
No Data
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New technology information hard to get. Communication delays/responsiveness. Reluctance to respond to questionnaire (time consuming,

confidentiality issues, other)

No responses to emails or phone calls Used personal communications

Frustrating Experience (started in May 2006)

Wide range of applications including:

Real time large scale traffic management Advanced urban planning

Most mature large implementations are overseas. Most projects had specific objectives.
With out plans for on going use.

Found few failures due to multiple model incompatibilities. Reluctance to disclose cost & effort.

Total length:1650 Km Total lane length: 4483 Km Intersections: 10,580 Zones: 3153

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Objective
Road network control Off-line management scenario analysis Real-time simulation scenarios for Incident & Congestion Management.
Provides short term forecasts. Traffic control center operations application.

In operation since April 2006

Was based on O/D data from original regional model.

Problems occurred but the 3 year length of the project allowed for successful

resolution. Current O/D data are maintained inside the new system and adjusted periodically.

Calibrated with volume, travel time ,and classification data on key locations of the network.
Cost not disclosed.

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Hessen, Germany
Total lenght:1,512 Km Zones: 245 Intersections: 462
Controlled: 200

Madrid, Spain (TSS)

First Phase (current): Intersections: 2,109 Zones: 207 Second Phase: Intersections: ~8,000 Zones: ~2,000

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Total Length: 1,438 Km Intersections: 7,901 Zones: 344 Completed 2002

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Collaboration between urban planning, transit , and operation authorities. Objective:

Serve as a Master Model to support operational planning projects in various districts of the city.

Projects since completion

Studies in urban reshaping. Development of traffic management schemes in four city districts (2 completed). Feasibility study of Light Rail line through the CBD (ongoing).

Initial O/D information from regional model (EMME/2).

Only the 24h matrix was available.

Traffic data for master model matrix adjustment and calibration was a problem.

Complementary study conducted to determine best detection layout and identify number and location of additional detectors.
Detector installation is ongoing.

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Total Length: 225 Km Links: VISUM 8,345, VISSIM 926 (45 controlled) Zones: VISUM 536, VISSIM 126 Completed
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Preceded earlier project (not real-time capability) Objective:

Renovation of the urban ring road M30 around the old city center of Madrid.
Estimate hourly traffic flow for different projection years (2007, 2012, 2037). Capacity analysis at bottlenecks (weaving sections, on/off-ramps, spill-backs from adjacent intersections onto M30). Finding remedial measures to prevent bottlenecks at reasonable construction cost.

Original data from regional model (EMME/2)

Only peak periods available (two 4hour matrixes) Original EMME/2 demand model was calibrated against 55 sites counted; VISUM model was recalibrated and fine-tuned against 20 detector counts. 24 person months for converting the regional model to VISUM, minor recalibration of VISUM and building the future M30 cases in VISUM and VISSIM

Calibration:

Effort spend:

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Area: 30 sq miles Intersections: 400

330 signalized 25 freeway interchanges

Zones: 295 VISUM 65 VISSIM Completed 2005

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Objective:
Investigate access to downtown area during AM peak period in

anticipation of 377% population growth.

Converted regional model (CUBE) to VISUM model.

Adjusted O/D and assignment based on measured link flows.

VISSIM model calibrated with data collected from detectors and from extensive manual counting efforts and floating car studies.
New calibration methodology was necessary.

No planned use of the model beyond current project.

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Total Length: 220 miles (VISUM) Intersections: 2000

250 signalized (SCOOT)

Started in 2006
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Total length: 671 Km (area: 100Km2 ) Intersections: 1,476, Controlled: 148 Zones: 292 Completed in 2004

Area: 12 sq. Km Intersections: 600, 200 signalized Completed 2002

Total Length: VISUM 6,019 Km, VISSIM 272Km Intersections: VISUM 1602, VISSIM 217 (98 controlled) Zones: VISUM 1118, VISSIM 152

Completed
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Total Length: 1,113 km Intersections: 98 signalized, 6 Freeway interchanges

Completed 2004
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Total Length: VISUM 21,200 Intersections: VISUM 5,895 Zones: VISUM 898 Completed 2006
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Interviewing local stakeholders to explore needs and potential desire for metro wide micro-simulation.
Metropolitan Council City of Minneapolis FHWA

Regional Traffic Management Center

Hennepin Co. Mn/DOT (on going) City of Eden Prairie

City of Maple Grove

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Current planning process is static.

No real-time control, metering, ITS improvements can be assessed. Equilibrium Peak period O/D matrixes produced

Implying constant Travel Times during the Peak Periods.

Manual sort term partitioning of O/D for detailed analysis.

Trial & Error

Calibration based on detector data also manual.

Traversal O/D matrixes on sub-areas cannot be extracted with available SW (TP+/CUBE)

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Majority agrees on notion of at least Freeway & Highway network micro-simulation. Application for assessing Ramp Metering effect including diversion in entire system. Model would assist in evaluating impact of major transportation projects (LRT, I-394 HOT lane) Model could be used for improving accuracy of Metro Planning model (traffic assignment). Impacts of :
Special events. Work zones & their interactions
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Improving Ramp Metering, optimization and/or new algorithm Planning for special events Real time management of special events (incidents) Post-incident management analysis and training. Access to Destinations Needs
At minimum hourly Travel times (past & projected) Land use interaction with transportation network

development
Dynamic effects of ATIS/ATMS for assessing effects on Accessibility
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Transit operations modeling Priority/Exclusive lane modeling Dynamic Traffic Assignment capability API for interfacing with external systems Ability to Interact with planning package Ability to extract & analyze a sub-area Partitioning of O/D matrices to short term periods. Similar needs recognized worldwide
Trend is to integrate planning with micro-simulation Automation of a disjoined manual processes.
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Traditional Method
Four Step Process
Trip Generation

Next Generation Method Integrated Solution

INTEGRATED MACRO LEVEL TRANSPORT PLANNING MODEL OF A REGIONAL OR METROPOLITAN AREA

Trip Distribution

Mode Selection

IDENTIFICATION OF CRITICAL SUBAREAS OF INTEREST

Route Assignment

AUTOMATIC DATA EXTRACTION FOR THE SELECTED SUBAREA

Manual Process

AUTOMATIC GENERATION OF SUBAREA MICROSIMULATION MODEL

AUTOMATIC GENERATION OF SUBAREA TRAVERSAL O/D

Analysis of a Specific Area: O/D matrices extracted from planning package and entered separately into microsimulator

CALIBRATION OF THE OF SUBAREA PARTITIONING TRAVERSAL TRAVERSAL O/D O/D MATRIX

INPUT TO AIMSUN MICRO MODEL AND SUBAREA SIMULATION

1 & 2 performed by different entities Static period O/D, manual partitioning

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Several simulators commercially available Stand alone or integrated with the planning package Objective is to identify the top 2-3 most suitable for Twin Cities metro mrea based on SW requirements identified. Comparison in progress

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TransCAD/TransModeler Cube (Voyager & Dynasim) Paramics PTV Vision (VISUM & VISSIM) AIMSUN NG (AIMSUN PLANNER & AIMSUN) Dynasmart-P and CORSIM do not meet microsimulation or integration requirements.

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Solution

Integrated Simulation Capabilities?

Automatic Generation of Subarea Traversal O/D Matrix

Background* & Network** Import Capabilities?

O/D Adjustment / Partitioning from Loop Data

Published Methodology / Proven Record

TransCAD / TransModeler Cube

NO

Paramics

PTV Vision

AIMSUN

*Geometry ** Links and Nodes 33

Track record of the provider Actual implementation record in large scale applications. Proven methodology employed in the integrated macro and micro solution Fit of provider to local IT footprint

Is it adaptable to the data bases / planning infrastructure /

practices of the Metro Area?

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Implementation to Twin Cities is timely & feasible subject to data availability. The most logical and feasible step is modeling of the entire Freeway Network
Doable in <2 years due to earlier work Accessible to State, Local agencies and consultants for

saving time and $ in many applications.

Project is still on going

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Objective:

Simulation test site for new Traveler information and management technologies
En-route navigation with real-time travel time info. Dynamic speed control Shoulder lane usage

VISEM activity based demand model.

Socio-demographic data Household surveys

Produced hourly O/D matrices per trip purpose. Calibrated based on average weekly traffic counts Microscopic model calibrated with 98 strategic detector sites

45 on freeways and 53 on urban streets

Data collection effort: 3 man months identify representative count profiles from a database of traffic counts plus re-calibration of the OD matrices. Project effort: 18 man month. Model is/will be reused in several smaller projects
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Objective Model build for specific project and not used anymore.
O/D adjusted with traffic counts 250 urban road detectors 200 freeway detectors.

Traffic Management study of the Berlin CBD (VISSIM part of project). The bigger VISUM model was generated to support trip generation for the area.

O/D information was based on Regional model in VISEM.

Calibration of Micro model with detector measurements Effort spend: 9 man months for the VISSIM part only.
Mainly coding of intersections.

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Objective

Develop regional model in VISUM and PRISM geo-database Introduce enough detail to allow VISSIM applications.
Extension of existing LRT. Coventry ring road study.

Supports assessment of various issues

Local transport planning Metro and LRT extensions Park and Ride schemes Motorway widening General regional and local planning and policies

Regional model developed and calibrated with census and household survey data. Roadside interviews and detector counts used to calibrate path costs and link flows.

Cost: several million USD

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Objective

Evaluate designs for the reconstruction of Route 9A passing from the old Twin towers site.

Model is currently used on other projects. Modeled 5 sq. miles of lower Manhattan.

Many signals.

Data from the regional model.

Matrices adjusted based on volumes, speeds collected from detectors. 15 minute O/D matrices

Model calibrated based on volume, speeds, and queues (manually collected). Cost: Modeling part $200K-$300K (50% was data collection). Overall project >$1M. Duration: 1.5 years

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Objective

Project was for private entity so model was not used for anything else. Area ~5 sq. miles.

Evaluate from new Giants sports stadium construction.

Very complicated, with parking isles. Standard and toll freeway interchanges

Data from the regional model.

Matrices adjusted based on volumes, speeds collected from detectors. 10 minute O/D matrices.
Over 28,000 trips fro the stadium alone plus background traffic. 6-10 different time periods to represent lane and link closures by the sports authority.

Model calibrated based on volume, speeds, and queues (manually collected).

Cost: $1M (50% on data collection) for calibration/validation. Duration: 1 year

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Objective

Study the impacts of growth on the IH-94 corridor between the Illinois border and Milwaukee.

Sub-areas are used for other projects. Size: about 40 miles of freeway with two alternative routes.

165 zones

Received from client only ramp counts. Generated O/D from that with Paramics Estimator because the caretaker of the planning model did not cooperate with the study team.

Study team conducted O/D study fro one major interchange 15 minute O/D matrices

Calibrated with automatically and manually collected volumes, speeds and queues. Cost: $300K-$400K Project is ongoing.

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Area: 12 sq. Km Intersections: 600, 200 signalized Completed 2002

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Objective:
To serve as Master model for metro area studies.

O/D based on regional model.

Manually increased zone density Used car park and link volume data to adjust.

Effort: 2000 man hours.

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Politicians/Management/Engineers often need quick answers to pressing questions/problems.

Answers cannot always be readily produced.

In most projects one has to start from scratch in terms of model building and data collection.

Time consuming and expensive Deal breaker Worldwide applications in:

Real time and off-line traffic management

Simulation has matured for actual implementation in traffic and planning.

Metro/CBD access studies

Transportation operations planning Alternative network design selection/effectiveness Specialized projects (special events, incident management, etc.)
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Trent is to integrate planning models with micro-simulation Vision:

Expand Metro area model capabilities to support micro-simulation. Begin to develop and maintain necessary databases.

Simulate on demand for planned or emergency projects.

Save time & cost Obtain robust & comprehensive solutions. Use for ongoing improvements (what if.)

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