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Table of Contents
I. Executive Summary
Executive Summary
The economy grew by 6.2% in Q2-2010. The whole year it forecasted to grow within the range of 5.5%-6.0% by the end of
2010, and estimated to reach the upper limit projection, bolstered by Indonesia's external sector performance, investment, and consumer spending. The latest macro economic indicators supported us to believe that the economy, in line with the development in the global economy, is steadily moving on an upward trend accompanied by financial system stability. It bolstered Indonesia's external sector performance and investment, with domestic recovery gaining strength as the economy is no longer reliant solely on consumption. The optimism also supported by latest development in the perception indicators such as an upgrade to investment grade, yield spread, CDS, CRC-OECD, etc. An assessment of economic developments during July 2010 points to improvement in the domestic economy amid persistent risks of global uncertainties. On July 13th 2010, Japan Credit Rating Agency (JCR) upgraded Indonesia's sovereign rating to Investment Grade, from BB+ to BBB-. This upgrade was the first investment grade for Indonesia in 13 years. Currently, the Republic of Indonesias sovereig n rating BB+ /Stable from Fitch, BB+/Stable from R&I, BB/Positive from S&P, and Ba2/positive from Moodys. The latest Board Meeting convened in August 2010 resolved to hold the BI Rate at 6.5%. For the time being, the current rate considers adequate to safeguard future inflation expectations. However, BI is taking careful note of the recent onset of higher inflationary pressure and will pursue the necessary monetary and banking policy actions to ensure that future inflation remains on track with the established target at 5%+1% for 2010 and 2011. BI will soon respond with measures to tighten liquidity management without disruption to the bank intermediation function, implemented through changes in the statutory reserve requirement. Regarding prices, the Board of Governors is closely monitoring the onset of rising inflationary pressure. July 2010 recorded fairly brisk CPI inflation at 1.57% (mtm) or 6.22% (yoy). Inflationary pressure was driven mainly by higher inflation in the foodstuffs category and particularly rice, due to seasonal uncertainties. In contrast, pressure from core inflation has been kept at modest levels as a result of adequate supply-side response to increases in demand and the appreciating trend in the exchange rate.
Executive Summary
Overall, banking industry remains in a stable condition and convinced to be run prudently, which is reflected in the wellmaintained Capital Adequacy Ratio of 17.4%, and safe level of Non-Performing Loans at 3.3%, as of end of June 2010. By end of 2010, lending growth is projected to reach 22%-24%. Up to July 2010, banking industry has reached the remarkable lending growth at 19.6%. Improved market confidence also bring more optimism to further banking intermediation function. Going forward, BI will keep a close watch on bank lending growth to keep it within the range envisaged in the Bank Business Plans. Special efforts will be devoted to increase credit for productive purposes. The purpose of these measures is to ensure that demand-side increase will be adequately offset on the supply-side and thus not generate excessive inflationary pressure.
Balance of payments has posted a significant surplus over Q2-2010 at US$5.4 billion. The surplus was contributed from
both the current account and capital and financial account. The current account posted a US$1.8 billion surplus, bolstered from upbeat performance in non-oil/gas trade balance, the gas trade balance and the current transfers balance. The ongoing world economic recovery has strengthened non-oil/gas exports with growth outperforming non-oil/gas imports. The capital and financial account recorded a US$3.3 billion surplus distributed fairly among all major components. renewed growth in capital inflows in response to the upward revision of the credit rating outlook and more upbeat international perceptions.
International reserves position at 30 July 2010 reached USD78.8 billion, equivalent to 6.03 months of imports and servicing
of official external debt. This helped the rupiah to maintain stable movement throughout July 2010 with an appreciating trend. In May 2010, the parliament approved 2010 revised budget proposed by the government . The revision is perceived as a necessary measure to adjust the current economic conditions especially changes in the macroeconomic assumptions. The proposed budget adjustment would increased deficit from 1.6 to 2.1%, in order to contain increasing subsidies figures due to rising commodity prices mainly from oil.
1st
Pro-Growth:
Increase Growth by prioritizing export and investment
2nd
Pro-Job :
Boost up the real sector in order to create jobs
Pro-Poor:
3rd
Inflation
Inflation Inflation Expectation Consensus Forecast
Stable rupiah is expected to damp pressure from higher commodity prices and pave the way for better inflation expectation. From domestic side, in addition to administered price, subtle inflationary pressure would also be the result from higher demand along with higher economic growth as production capacity remain adequate to respond to higher demand. Those conditions is projected to be reflected in inflation rate at 5+1% in 2010. BI is closely monitoring the onset of rising inflationary pressure. July 2010 recorded fairly brisk CPI inflation at 1.57% (mtm) or 6.22% (yoy). Inflationary pressure was driven mainly by higher inflation in the foodstuffs category and particularly rice, due to seasonal uncertainties. In contrast, pressure from core inflation has been kept at modest levels as a result of adequate supply-side response to increases in demand and the appreciating trend in the exchange rate. Accordingly, the most important factors in mounting inflation are seasonal, requiring action to safeguard against increased expectations of future inflation. Future inflationary pressure until end of 2010 is predicted mainly from higher electricity tariff, upcoming Ramadhan festivities and higher food prices associated with seasonal uncertainties. Going forward in 2011, inflationary pressures could be spurred by an increasingly limited supply-side response to the expected sustained growth in demand. BI will keep a close watch on the rising inflationary pressure and make the necessary adjustments to monetary policy responses to ensure that inflation remains on track with the established targeting range at 5%+1% in 2010 and 2011.
Source: Bank Indonesia
BI Rate
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Balance of Payments
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financial system stability up to July 2010 is well maintained, confirmed by Financial Stability Index (FSI) which was recorded at
1.84 (slightly lower than June 2010 at 1.87). The decrease indicates lower pressure to the financial system which mainly came from lower credit risk and lower volatility in the financial market.
Banking industry remains in a stable condition and convinced to be run prudently, which is reflected in the well-maintained Capital
Adequacy Ratio (17.4%, as of end of June 2010) and safe level of Non-Performing Loans at 3.0%, as of end of June 2010.
Intermediary function is steadily improving reflected from 19.6% (yoy) lending growth recorded in end of June 2010.
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Source: Bank Indonesia.
GDP Growth
is forecasted to be at the upper limit of 5.5%6.0% projection With more upbeat confidence to the economy, exports and investment are expected to keep climbing, providing additional boost to mounting consumption in support of higher levels of economic growth.
Export
is expected to chart higher growth
Global economic recovery will produce renewed acceleration in exports. The global economy is predicted to enter an expansionary phase in 2010. Renewed momentum is predicted in the economies of Indonesias major trading partners, such as China. This strengthened performance will position exports as one of the main engines of economic growth in 2010. Indonesian exports characteristics which is based on primary commodities has also supported export growth acceleration. Household consumption is forecasted to remain strong. The strengthening global economic outlook for 2010 will given added momentum to Indonesias exports, which in turn will produce an overall increase in private incomes. Higher investment will also contribute to rising incomes, thus paving the way for stronger public purchasing power.
Private Consumption
will remain strong
Inflation
is estimated to be on target at range of 5.0%1%
Signs of future inflationary pressures until end of 2010 are noted, which mainly predicted from administered prices and volatile food seasonal uncertainties. However, BI is positive to contain the inflation level within the target range, and will keep a close watch on the rising inflationary pressure and make the necessary adjustments to monetary policy responses to ensure that inflation remains on track with the established targeting range at 5%1% in 2010 and 2011.
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14
Reduce debt to GDP ratio: 2009 (28%), 2010 (27%). Actual fiscal deficit 1.6% of GDP, lower than 2.4% of GDP target deficit projected in 2009 Revised Budget Target fiscal deficit 1.6% of GDP in 2010 Budget (budget adjustments is in ongoing discussion with the
parliament) .
Continue tax policy and administration reform, reduce rate for companies, certainty of tax policy for oil
Tax and Administrative Reforms
companies
Implement the 1st batch of Performance Based Budget (PBB), Civil Service Reform and Remuneration
(11 ministries) and multi-years projects
Provide fiscal space for the new government to implement additional priority programs (0.4% of GDP or
equal to USD 2.5 billion)
Sufficient fiscal risk for oil and commodity prices, El-Nino, provide guarantee on land acquisition for
infrastructure projects, secure financing for power (PLN) and restructuring water services (PDAM), domestic oil price adjustment if necessary
Export promotion (additional capital for Indonesian Exim Bank) and incentives for real sector, climate
change projects (geothermal, bio-premium, green funds)
Continue welfare programs (PNPM, BOS, Jamkesmas, Raskin) and provide budget for education
sector
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Reduce income tax rate for corporations from 28% to 25% Reduce income tax rate by 5% for listed companies with 40% public ownership
Incentives on General Taxation
Provide income tax facilities for businesses in specific industries or areas Free VAT for primary agriculture products Eliminate many luxury tax items Provide tax and custom Incentive for special areas in accordance with law on tax and custom Eliminate non tax revenue for export and import documentation Provide incentive for geothermal energy through income tax and VAT
Energy Incentives
Provide tax incentive on imports (both income tax and VAT on imports) for the oil and gas exploration
sector
Provide incentive for green energy through for VAT and subsidy Provide custom incentives for select industries Provide custom incentives for imported capital goods and capex
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18
2006 0
2007
2008 -0.1
2009
2010
-0.5
-1
-0.9
-1.5
-2 -2.1 -2.5
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-Non-Departm ental / non Line Minis tries -Energy Subs idies i. Fuel ii. Electricity II. Transfer to Region C. Surplus/(Deficit) Budget (A -B) % GDP D. Financing I. Dom es tic II. International (net)
385,1 106,5 68,7 37,8 322,4 -98,0 (1.6) 98,0 107,9 -9,8
415,3 143,9 88,9 55,1 344,6 -133,7 (2.1) 133,7 133,9 -0,1
M ACRO AS S UM PT IONS 2010 NO Growth Infl ati on E xc hange rates (/US D) SBI Oi l P ri c e (US D/B arrel ) Oi l Li fti ng (mi l .B arrel /Day Budget 5,5% 5% 10.000 6,50% 65 0,965 Rev ised Budget 5,8% 5,3% 9.200 6,5% 80 0,965
1 2 3 4 5 6
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2010 Rev. Budget 990,5 743,3 720,8 362,2 55,4 306,8 263,0 25,3 7,2 59,3 3,8 22,6 17,1 5,5 247,2 164,7 151,7 13,0 29,5 43,5 9,5 1,9 992,4
Source: Ministry of Finance
948,1 742,7 715,5 351,0 47,0 303,9 269,5 26,5 7,4 57,3 3,9 27,2 19,6 7,6 205,4 132,0 120,5 11,5 24,0 39,9 9,5 1,5 949,7
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5.
6. 7. 8. II.
T ransfer to Region 1. Balanced Fund a. Revenue Sharing b. General Allocation Fund c. Special Allocation Fund 2. Special A utonomy & A djustment Fund a. Special Autonomy Fund b. Adjustment Fund 3. Grants to Region
State Expenditure
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2010
II. Foreign Financing 1. Gross Drawing a. Program Loan b. Project Loan 2. Subsidiary Loan Agreement 3. Amortizations 23
Gross Domestic Product (trillion Rp) Economic growth rate (%) Inflation rate (%) Interest rate of SBI 3 Month (%) Exchange rate (Rp/US$1) Oil price (US$/barrel) Oil production (MBCD)
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Debt Ratio
Debt to GDP Ratio (% of GDP)
Debt Service to GDP Ratio (%)
Notes: * = Preliminary ** = Very Preliminary *** = Very Very Preliminary, GDP number based on Budget 2010 Assumption
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