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Conditional Probability
A conditional probability is the probability that an event will occur, when another event is known to occur or to have occurred. If the events are A and B respectively, this is said to be "the probability of A given B For example, if a coin is flipped twice, "the outcome of the second flip" is independent of "the outcome of the first flip".

Conditional Probability

Conditional Probability

Calculate the probability that you have lizard flu. Assuming you start with 1,000 people , fill in the blanks, Dividing them into groups according to your base rates and the specs of the test.

Bayes Rule

You can use Bayes rule over and over

You took control of the probabilities

Using Bayes rule and know how to manage base rates. The only way to avoid the base rate fallacy is always to be on the lookout for base rates and to be sure to incorporate them into your analyses.

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