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  • Geographic Determinants of Rice Self-Sufficiency in Southeast Asia

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    Rice self-sufficiency is a key objective of most Asian governments, yet attaining that objective has been elusive for several countries over extended periods of time. Long-term status as an exporter or importer is relatively constant, and is altered only by revolutionary events (i.e., major changes in policy or technologies). Traditional rice importers tend to eat less rice (and more wheat) than traditional exporters, so the determining factors behind rice self-sufficiency must lie on the supply side. This paper finds that the main determinant of (per capita) rice production is not rice yield per hectare, but rather the amount of per capita rice area harvested, which in turn is determined largely by the proportion of land that is well-suited for growing rice. Thus, countries with ample (per capita) supplies of water and flat land (i.e. those with dominant river deltas on the mainland) are self-sufficient in rice, and countries with more varied landscapes are not. Friday, 6 September 2013 0930-1030h SSD Conference Room Drilon Hall Geographic determinants of rice self-sufficiency in Southeast Asia Dr. David Dawe Senior Economist Agricultural Development Economics Division FAO

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    Rice self-sufficiency is a key objective of most Asian governments, yet attaining that objective has been elusive for several countries over extended periods of time. Long-term status as an exporter or importer is relatively constant, and is altered only by revolutionary events (i.e., major changes in policy or technologies). Traditional rice importers tend to eat less rice (and more wheat) than traditional exporters, so the determining factors behind rice self-sufficiency must lie on the supply side. This paper finds that the main determinant of (per capita) rice production is not rice yield per hectare, but rather the amount of per capita rice area harvested, which in turn is determined largely by the proportion of land that is well-suited for growing rice. Thus, countries with ample (per capita) supplies of water and flat land (i.e. those with dominant river deltas on the mainland) are self-sufficient in rice, and countries with more varied landscapes are not. Friday, 6 September 2013 0930-1030h SSD Conference Room Drilon Hall Geographic determinants of rice self-sufficiency in Southeast Asia Dr. David Dawe Senior Economist Agricultural Development Economics Division FAO

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    526 просмотров19 страниц

    Geographic Determinants of Rice Self-Sufficiency in Southeast Asia

    Загружено:

    irri_social_sciences
    Rice self-sufficiency is a key objective of most Asian governments, yet attaining that objective has been elusive for several countries over extended periods of time. Long-term status as an exporter or importer is relatively constant, and is altered only by revolutionary events (i.e., major changes in policy or technologies). Traditional rice importers tend to eat less rice (and more wheat) than traditional exporters, so the determining factors behind rice self-sufficiency must lie on the supply side. This paper finds that the main determinant of (per capita) rice production is not rice yield per hectare, but rather the amount of per capita rice area harvested, which in turn is determined largely by the proportion of land that is well-suited for growing rice. Thus, countries with ample (per capita) supplies of water and flat land (i.e. those with dominant river deltas on the mainland) are self-sufficient in rice, and countries with more varied landscapes are not. Friday, 6 September 2013 0930-1030h SSD Conference Room Drilon Hall Geographic determinants of rice self-sufficiency in Southeast Asia Dr. David Dawe Senior Economist Agricultural Development Economics Division FAO

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    Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

    Agricultural Development Economics Division (ESA)

    Geographic determinants of rice self-sufficiency in Southeast Asia

    David Dawe, FAO IRRI, 6 September 2013

    Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

    Agricultural Development Economics Division (ESA)

    Rice trade status, 1904 2009

    Los Baos, Philippines, 6 September 2013

    Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific

    Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

    Agricultural Development Economics Division (ESA)

    The importance of geography


    Consistent importers are all islands or peninsulas. This phenomenon extends beyond SE Asia to Japan, Korea and Sri Lanka. Consistent exporters are all on the mainland, with dominant river deltas that provide ample water and flat land.

    Bangladesh is a bit of an exception to the rule, as it is on the mainland but is a (small) net importer.

    Los Baos, Philippines, 6 September 2013

    Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific

    Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

    Agricultural Development Economics Division (ESA)

    The importance of geography


    This pattern is also true within countries. Southern Thailand (a peninsula) imports rice from the rest of the country, while Central Luzon (fed by the Pampanga River) exports rice to Manila.

    Los Baos, Philippines, 6 September 2013

    Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific

    Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

    Agricultural Development Economics Division (ESA)

    Self-sufficiency
    Self-sufficiency is determined by both supply and demand. But importers have the highest levels of wheat consumption. Thus, the exporters have not achieved self-sufficiency by eating less rice their advantage comes from producing more rice.

    Los Baos, Philippines, 6 September 2013

    Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific

    Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

    Agricultural Development Economics Division (ESA)

    Rice importers eat more wheat

    Wheat and rice consumption per capita

    Los Baos, Philippines, 6 September 2013

    Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific

    Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

    Agricultural Development Economics Division (ESA)

    Mainland countries produce more rice

    Rice production (paddy terms) per person, ASEAN

    Los Baos, Philippines, 6 September 2013

    Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific

    Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

    Agricultural Development Economics Division (ESA)

    Why is rice production per person low in


    the importing countries?

    Prod = rice production POP = population RA = rice area (harvested)


    Los Baos, Philippines, 6 September 2013 Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific

    Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

    Agricultural Development Economics Division (ESA)

    Rice area harvested per person, ASEAN

    Los Baos, Philippines, 6 September 2013

    Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific

    Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

    Agricultural Development Economics Division (ESA)

    Rice yields, ASEAN

    Los Baos, Philippines, 6 September 2013

    Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific

    10

    Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

    Agricultural Development Economics Division (ESA)

    Differences in rice production per person across


    countries are mostly determined by differences in rice area harvested per person, not differences in yield.

    A regression of Prod/Pop on RA/Pop gives an R2 of


    0.78, while a regression of Prod/Pop on Prod/RA gives an R2 of just 0.03.

    Los Baos, Philippines, 6 September 2013

    Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific

    11

    Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

    Agricultural Development Economics Division (ESA)

    Why do different countries have different rice area


    harvested per person?

    RA = rice area (harvested) POP = Population TCA = total crop area (harvested) AA = agricultural area LA = land area
    Los Baos, Philippines, 6 September 2013 Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific

    12

    Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

    Agricultural Development Economics Division (ESA)

    Los Baos, Philippines, 6 September 2013

    Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific

    13

    Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

    Agricultural Development Economics Division (ESA)

    The R2 of a regression of RA/POP on RA/TCA is 0.74, while the R2 of a regression of RA/POP on each of the other three variables individually never reaches more than 0.11. Even regressing RA/POP on the other three variables jointly gives a negative adjusted R2 (compared to an adjusted R2 of 0.70 for RA/TCA).
    Thus, rice area harvested per person is determined primarily by rices share in total cropped area.

    Los Baos, Philippines, 6 September 2013

    Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific

    14

    Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

    Agricultural Development Economics Division (ESA)

    Average nominal domestic paddy prices, farm level, 1991-2006

    Los Baos, Philippines, 6 September 2013

    Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific

    15

    Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

    Agricultural Development Economics Division (ESA)

    Rice prod/person vs. share of crop area devoted to rice

    Los Baos, Philippines, 6 September 2013

    Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific

    16

    Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

    Agricultural Development Economics Division (ESA)

    How did the Philippines achieve self-sufficiency in the 1980s?

    Adoption rates of modern varieties, 1966 - 1997


    Source of raw data: IRRI

    Los Baos, Philippines, 6 September 2013

    Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific

    17

    Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

    Agricultural Development Economics Division (ESA)

    Consequences of the drive to self-sufficiency


    Domestic rice prices in importing countries tend to be higher than in exporting countries, due to trade restrictions. Higher domestic prices, coupled with a shortage of land suitable for growing rice, has led to more irrigation and higher yields in the rice-importing countries. Higher domestic prices have encouraged dietary diversification to wheat.

    Higher domestic prices lead to higher poverty rates and greater malnutrition (trade-off between SS and food security).
    Los Baos, Philippines, 6 September 2013 Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific

    18

    Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

    Agricultural Development Economics Division

    Thank you for your kind attention

    Los Baos, Philippines, 6 September 2013

    Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific

    19

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