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3G & Pakistan

Syed Sajjad Muhiyuddin

Agenda
Introduction Part-1

3G Time Line 3G Spectrum Considerations 3G World Wide 3G Facts and Figures 3G Case Study 3G and Beyond Cellular Market in Pakistan Internet & Pakistan Applications WiMAX Vs 3G

Part-2

Conclusion
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Introduction
In this brief presentation we will go over the rationale of

taking Pakistan into exciting age of 3G (W-CDMA) We will talk about the 3G spectrum We will go over the 3G (W-CDMA) presence in the world, current cellular market of Pakistan and talk about the best way to move forward.

PART-1
3G-WCDMA

3G TimeLine
FUTURE

PAKISTAN ?

WORLD
Testing Started, Deployment 2009?

4th Generation LTE?

3rd Generation
GSM + EDGE

2001/2 start of W-CDMA commercial networks 2000 First commercial GPRS network launched. 2003 first EDGE deployment

2004/5 launch of GPRS/EDGE

GSM + GPRS GSM + VAS

Mobilink Operations Started in 1994

2nd Generation Digital


1st Generation Analog

First GSM network was launched in 1991 by Radiolinja in Finland 1983 First Commercial AMPS Network in USA 5

Paktel Launches AMPS 1990

3G Spectrum Considerations
Technique of two users talking to each other on two separate frequencies is called Frequency Division Duplex, or FDD. W-CDMA is an FDD technique (i.e., it requires paired spectrum)

3G Spectrum Considerations
Technically, an operator could run a 3G network on just 5MHz of paired spectrum

(2x5MHz).This would however severely limit the range, scope and quality of services that could be provided and would have serious implications on the viability of any investment in a 3G system.
Hierarchical network design would not be possible as only one carrier would be available per

cell. Data rates of 384 Kpbs would be achievable (2 Mbps data would only be able to support one user per cell in an indoor environment without soft handover).

10 MHz of paired spectrum (2 x 10 MHz) would be somewhat more workable but capability

to support high speed multimedia services would still be limited. In an ideal scenario, 20 MHz of paired spectrum would provide maximum flexibility and efficiency in network design as multi-layer hierarchical network could be deployed providing the ability to segregate high speed data from low speed data and voice services thus improving system efficiency.

UMTS forum has also recommended that the minimum spectrum requirement per operator is 15 MHz of paired spectrum plus 5 MHz of unpaired spectrum (i.e. 2 x 15 MHz + 5 MHz)
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3G SpectrumUK Example
License Name License A (reserved for a new entrant to the industry) License B License C License D License E Frequencies 2x15 MHz paired spectrum plus 5 MHz unpaired spectrum 2x15 MHz paired spectrum 2x10 MHz paired spectrum plus 5 MHz unpaired spectrum 2x10 MHz paired spectrum plus 5 MHz unpaired spectrum Winner Hutchison 3G Vodafone BT One2One Orange

2x10 MHz paired spectrum plus 5 MHz unpaired spectrum

3G World Wide
3G Subscribers
250 200 150

Millions
100 Subscribers

50

0 2005 2006 2007 2008

Years

3G Operators (HSPA)
120

100

80

60

40

20

0 Europe APAC ME & Africa Americas

Total 211 3G/W-CDMA Operators 185 HSPA 23 3G 3 MVNOs

3G Facts & Figures


211 commercial WCDMA operators in 91 countries WCDMA technology in use by over 72% of 293 commercial 3G operators Over 200 million WCDMA subscribers 80 million WCDMA subscriptions added in 2007 i.e. over 81% growth 220 HSDPA operator commitments in 92 countries; 185 operators launched 185 of 211 commercial WCDMA operators launched HSDPA (87.6% = 7 out of 8) 80 HSDPA operators commercially launched during 2007; annual growth of 80% Over 62% of commercial HSDPA operators support 3.6 Mbps peak or higher Over 20% of commercial HSDPA operators support 7.2 Mbps peak or higher 34 HSUPA operators commercially launched in 26 countries Over 1.1 billion GSM & WCDMA-HSDPA subscribers in HSDPA-enabled networks Over 800 WCDMA terminal devices launched in the market (October 2007) 403 HSDPA devices launched in the market by 80 suppliers (October 2007)

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3G Case Study----North America


Data ARPU
$5.22 $5.77 $6.32 $7.19 $7.88

51% versus 1Q06 1Q06 $8.73 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07

Increase in data revenues more than


offset the loss in voice ARPU

$7.88

$7.63

$7.50

Accelerating data growth


- Sequential data ARPU increase of $.69 - Data revenue up 67% year over year and now

makes up over 16% of total service revenue


Yr/YR Growth 57% Verizon AT&T 51% Sprint 29% T-Mobile 47%

More than 33M active data users

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3G & Beyond

3G Mature Technology Deployed all over the world Field results available across the globe Customer base continuously increasing Available interoperability results Femto Cell Addressing needs of fixed mobile convergence market, 3G HBS enables mobile operators to provide coverage in customer's homes and offer mobile voice, video, and data services. It connects to end user's DSL or cable modem and securely routes voice and data traffic to and from mobile operator's network via existing broadband link. It allows operators to offer converged services that work with any existing and future 3G handset.

ABI Research predicts that Femto cell deployments will reach 19 million per annum by 2011.

4G

3GPP LTE (Long Term Evolution) is the name given to a project within the Third Generation Partnership Project to improve the UMTS mobile phone standard to cope with future requirements. Goals include improving efficiency, lowering costs, improving services, making use of new spectrum opportunities, and better integration with other open standards.

Peak download rates of 326.4 Mbit/s Peak upload rates of 86.4 Mbit/s for every 20 MHz of spectrum. At least 200 active users in every 5 MHz cell. (i.e., 200 active data clients)

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Part-2
Pakistan Cellular Market

Pakistan Cellular Market


Operators Mobilink (GSM, GPRS/EDGE) Ufone (GSM, GPRS) Telenor (GSM, GPRS/EDGE) Warid (GSM, GPRS) CM Pak (GSM, GPRS) Instaphone (D-AMPS)
Subscribers 35,000,000 30,000,000 25,000,000

20,000,000

15,000,000

10,000,000

5,000,000

0 Subscribers

Mobilink 31,000,000

Ufone 16,800,000

Telenor 16,000,000

Warid 13,500,000

Paktel 2,145,300

Insta 320,000

Source = www.pta.gov.pk

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Pakistan Cellular Market


Subscribers
Voice

35,000,000

Voice and Data Subscribers

Voice is still the dominating services used by over-whelming majority of the customers Data services are still in their infancy and require development of new applications keeping in mind the local variables.

30,000,000

25,000,000 Mobilink 20,000,000 Ufone Telenor 15,000,000 Warid CM-Pak 10,000,000 Instaphone

Data

5,000,000

0 Data Voice

From 2005 to 2008 .8 million data subscribers

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Pakistan Cellular Market


Data Services Provided SMS MMS Mobile TV GPRS/EDGE Modem (PCMCIA Cards or Phone)
PORTAL ???

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Internet Users
DSL Subscribers
25,000,000 20,000,000 160,000 2000 2001 15,000,000 2002 2003 2004 10,000,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 5,000,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 Subscribers 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 0 Users Subscribers Years 2005 2006 2007 2008

Users are those accessing the Internet from school, university, cyber cafes, and work accounts as well as individual household or business accounts. Subscribers are the number of individual paid internet access accounts, eg a work account is just one subscription but can have many users within that one subscription.

DSL/Broadband subscription has seen tremendous growth in 2006 and 2007. Availability of services related to cost was key factor in growth of DSL subscription.

BuddeComm based on ITU data

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Applications
3G Killer Application Most people have their own view what the 3G Killer Application(s) will be. Some say that there will not be a single application, but a palette of services. Most likely there will not be only a single application that becomes very popular and at the same time makes a lot of money to the operator. Email, voice(!), messaging, music/video streaming are popular bets for money making applications. If you look any reports about 3G services, m-commerce and location based services are predicted to become very popular.

Old phrase is "The easiest way to predict the future is to invent it" will apply here. Operators and application providers have an opportunity to create their own killer applications.
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Applications
Fun: WWW, video, post card, snapshots, text, picture and multimedia

messaging, datacast, personalization applications (ring tone, screen saver, desk top), jukebox, virtual companion / pet. Work: Rich call with image and data stream, IP telephony, B2B ordering and logistics, information exchange, personal information manager, dairy, scheduler, note pad, 2-way video conferencing, directory services, travel assistance, work group, telepresence, FTP, instant voicemail, color fax. Media: Push newspaper and magazines, advertising, classified. Shopping: E-commerce, e-cash, e-wallet, credit card, telebanking, automatic transaction, auction, micro-billing shopping.

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Applications
Entertainment: News, stock market, sports, games,

lottery, music, video, concerts.


Education: Online libraries, search engines, remote attendance,

field research, e-learning. Peace of Mind: Remote surveillance, location tracking, emergency use. Health: Telemedicine, remote diagnose and health monitoring. Travel: location sensitive information and guidance, e-tour, location awareness, time tables, e-ticketing.

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3G vs WiMAX
3G(W-CDMA) Proven technology with millions of subscribers. Proven & Working interoperability Field results available Most tier 1 vendors are hardware suppliers Major operators worldwide have adopted this as technology of choice. WiMAX Upcoming Technology with limited deployment Interoperability Issues Certification Issues Lab vs Field results Most hardware suppliers are tier 2 Pakistan as tested

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Conclusion
Spectrum Consideration
Need to make a careful decision What is the right time for technology Intelligent Users will be attracted by Intelligent

Applications

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