Slides Prepared by John S. Loucks St. Edward's University: 1 Slide © 2003 Thomson/South-Western

Slides Prepared by JOHN S. LOUCKS St.
Edwards University
2003 Thomson/South-Western
Slide 1
Chapter 7 Sampling and Sampling Distributions

Simple Random Sampling Point Estimation Introduction to Sampling Distributions Sampling Distribution of x Sampling Distribution of p n = 100 Sampling Methods
n = 30
Slide 2
Statistical Inference
The purpose of statistical inference is to obtain information about a population from information contained in a sample. A population is the set of all the elements of interest. A sample is a subset of the population. The sample results provide only estimates of the values of the population characteristics. A parameter is a numerical characteristic of a population. With proper sampling methods, the sample results will provide good estimates of the population characteristics.
Slide 3
Simple Random Sampling
Finite Population A simple random sample from a finite population of size N is a sample selected such that each possible sample of size n has the same probability of being selected. Replacing each sampled element before selecting subsequent elements is called sampling with replacement.
Slide 4
Finite Population Sampling without replacement is the procedure used most often. In large sampling projects, computer-generated random numbers are often used to automate the sample selection process.
Slide 5
Infinite Population A simple random sample from an infinite population is a sample selected such that the following conditions are satisfied. Each element selected comes from the same population. Each element is selected independently.
Slide 6
Infinite Population The population is usually considered infinite if it involves an ongoing process that makes listing or counting every element impossible. The random number selection procedure cannot be used for infinite populations.
Slide 7
Point Estimation
In point estimation we use the data from the sample to compute a value of a sample statistic that serves as an estimate of a population parameter. We refer to x as the point estimator of the population mean . s is the point estimator of the population standard deviation . p is the point estimator of the population proportion p.
Slide 8
Point Estimation
When the expected value of a point estimator is equal to the population parameter, the point estimator is said to be unbiased.
Slide 9
Sampling Error
The absolute difference between an unbiased point estimate and the corresponding population parameter is called the sampling error. Sampling error is the result of using a subset of the population (the sample), and not the entire population to develop estimates. The sampling errors are: |x | for sample mean |s | for sample standard deviation | p p| for sample proportion
Slide 10
Example: St. Andrews

St. Andrews College receives 900 applications annually from prospective students. The application forms contain a variety of information including the individuals scholastic aptitude test (SAT) score and whether or not the individual desires on-campus housing.
Slide 11

The director of admissions would like to know the following information: the average SAT score for the applicants, and the proportion of applicants that want to live on campus.
Slide 12

We will now look at three alternatives for obtaining the desired information. Conducting a census of the entire 900 applicants Selecting a sample of 30 applicants, using a random number table Selecting a sample of 30 applicants, using computer-generated random numbers
Slide 13
Taking a Census of the 900 Applicants SAT Scores Population Mean

x
i
900
990
Population Standard Deviation
(x
)2
900
80
Slide 14
Taking a Census of the 900 Applicants Applicants Wanting On-Campus Housing Population Proportion
648 p .72 900
Slide 15
Take a Sample of 30 Applicants Using a Random Number Table Since the finite population has 900 elements, we will need 3-digit random numbers to randomly select applicants numbered from 1 to 900. We will use the last three digits of the 5-digit random numbers in the third column of the textbooks random number table.
Slide 16
Take a Sample of 30 Applicants Using a Random Number Table The numbers we draw will be the numbers of the applicants we will sample unless the random number is greater than 900 or the random number has already been used. We will continue to draw random numbers until we have selected 30 applicants for our sample.
Slide 17
Use of Random Numbers for Sampling 3-Digit Applicant Random Number Included in Sample 744 No. 744 436 No. 436 865 No. 865 790 No. 790 835 No. 835 902 Number exceeds 900 190 No. 190 436 Number already used etc. etc.
Slide 18
Sample Data Applicant SAT Score Connie Reyman 1025 William Fox 950 Fabian Avante 1090 Eric Paxton 1120 Winona Wheeler 1015 . . Kevin Cossack 965 On-Campus Yes Yes No Yes No . No
Random No. Number 1 744 2 436 3 865 4 790 5 835 . . 30 685
Slide 19
Take a Sample of 30 Applicants Using Computer-Generated Random Numbers Excel provides a function for generating random numbers in its worksheet. 900 random numbers are generated, one for each applicant in the population. Then we choose the 30 applicants corresponding to the 30 smallest random numbers as our sample. Each of the 900 applicants have the same probability of being included.
Slide 20
Using Excel to Select a Simple Random Sample
Formula Worksheet
A 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Applicant Number 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 B SAT Score 1008 1025 952 1090 1127 1015 965 1161 C On-Campus Housing Yes No Yes Yes Yes No Yes No D Random Number =RAND() =RAND() =RAND() =RAND() =RAND() =RAND() =RAND() =RAND()
Note: Rows 10-901 are not shown.

2003 Thomson/South-Western Slide 21
Value Worksheet
A 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Applicant Number 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 B SAT Score 1008 1025 952 1090 1127 1015 965 1161 C On-Campus Housing Yes No Yes Yes Yes No Yes No D Random Number 0.41327 0.79514 0.66237 0.00234 0.71205 0.18037 0.71607 0.90512

Value Worksheet (Sorted)

A 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Applicant Number 12 773 408 58 116 185 510 394 B SAT Score 1107 1043 991 1008 1127 982 1163 1008 C On-Campus Housing No Yes Yes No Yes Yes Yes No D Random Number 0.00027 0.00192 0.00303 0.00481 0.00538 0.00583 0.00649 0.00667

Point Estimates x as Point Estimator of

x x 29,910 997 30 30
i
s as Point Estimator of
s
2 ( x x ) i
29
163,996 75.2 29
p as Point Estimator of p
p 20 30 .68
Slide 24
Point Estimates
Note: Different random numbers would have identified a different sample which would have resulted in different point estimates.
Slide 25
Sampling Distribution of x
Process of Statistical Inference Population with mean =? A simple random sample of n elements is selected from the population.
The value of x is used to make inferences about the value of .
The sample data provide a value for the sample mean x.
Slide 26
The sampling distribution of x is the probability distribution of all possible values of the sample mean x. Expected Value of x E( x ) = where:
= the population mean
Slide 27
Standard Deviation of x Finite Population Infinite Population
N n x ( ) n N 1
A finite population is treated as being
infinite if n/N < .05. ( N n) / ( N 1) is the finite correction factor. x is referred to as the standard error of the mean.
Slide 28
If we use a large (n > 30) simple random sample, the central limit theorem enables us to conclude that the sampling distribution of x can be approximated by a normal probability distribution. When the simple random sample is small (n < 30), the sampling distribution of x can be considered normal only if we assume the population has a normal probability distribution.
Slide 29
Sampling Distribution of
for the SAT Scores
80 x 14.6 n 30
E ( x ) 990
Slide 30
Sampling Distribution of x for the SAT Scores What is the probability that a simple random sample of 30 applicants will provide an estimate of the population mean SAT score that is within plus or minus 10 of the actual population mean ? In other words, what is the probability that x will be between 980 and 1000?
Slide 31
for the SAT Scores

Sampling distribution of x
Area = ?
x
980 990 1000
Slide 32
for the SAT Scores
Using the standard normal probability table with z = 10/14.6= .68, we have area = (.2518)(2) = .5036
The probability is .5036 that the sample mean will be within +/-10 of the actual population mean.
Slide 33
for the SAT Scores

Sampling distribution of x
Area = 2(.2518) = .5036
x
980 990 1000
Slide 34
Sampling Distribution of p
The sampling distribution of p is the probability distribution of all possible values of the sample proportion p. Expected Value of p
E ( p) p
where: p = the population proportion
Slide 35
Standard Deviation of p Finite Population Infinite Population
p(1 p) N n n N 1
p(1 p) n
p is referred to as the standard error of the

proportion.
Slide 36
The sampling distribution of p can be approximated by a normal probability distribution whenever the sample size is large. The sample size is considered large whenever these conditions are satisfied:
np > 5 and n(1 p) > 5
Slide 37
For values of p near .50, sample sizes as small as 10 permit a normal approximation. With very small (approaching 0) or large (approaching 1) values of p, much larger samples are needed.
Slide 38
Sampling Distribution of p for In-State Residents

The normal probability distribution is an acceptable approximation because: np = 30(.72) = 21.6 > 5 and n(1 - p) = 30(.28) = 8.4 > 5.
Slide 39
.72(1 .72) p .082 30
E( p ) .72
Slide 40
Sampling Distribution of p for In-State Residents What is the probability that a simple random sample of 30 applicants will provide an estimate of the population proportion of applicants desiring oncampus housing that is within plus or minus .05 of the actual population proportion? In other words, what is the probability that p will be between .67 and .77?
Slide 41

Sampling distribution of p
Area = ?
0.67 0.72 0.77
Slide 42
Sampling Distribution of p for In-State Residents For z = .05/.082 = .61, the area = (.2291)(2) = .4582. The probability is .4582 that the sample proportion will be within +/-.05 of the actual population proportion.
Slide 43

Sampling distribution of p
Area = 2(.2291) = .4582
0.67 0.72 0.77
Slide 44
Sampling Methods

Stratified Random Sampling Cluster Sampling Systematic Sampling Convenience Sampling Judgment Sampling
Slide 45
Stratified Random Sampling

The population is first divided into groups of elements called strata. Each element in the population belongs to one and only one stratum. Best results are obtained when the elements within each stratum are as much alike as possible (i.e. homogeneous group). A simple random sample is taken from each stratum. Formulas are available for combining the stratum sample results into one population parameter estimate.
Slide 46
Stratified Random Sampling
Advantage: If strata are homogeneous, this method is as precise as simple random sampling but with a smaller total sample size. Example: The basis for forming the strata might be department, location, age, industry type, etc.
Slide 47
Cluster Sampling

The population is first divided into separate groups of elements called clusters. Ideally, each cluster is a representative small-scale version of the population (i.e. heterogeneous group). A simple random sample of the clusters is then taken. All elements within each sampled (chosen) cluster form the sample. continued
Slide 48
Cluster Sampling
Advantage: The close proximity of elements can be cost effective (I.e. many sample observations can be obtained in a short time). Disadvantage: This method generally requires a larger total sample size than simple or stratified random sampling. Example: A primary application is area sampling, where clusters are city blocks or other well-defined areas.
Slide 49
Systematic Sampling
If a sample size of n is desired from a population containing N elements, we might sample one element for every n/N elements in the population. We randomly select one of the first n/N elements from the population list. We then select every n/Nth element that follows in the population list. This method has the properties of a simple random sample, especially if the list of the population elements is a random ordering. continued
Slide 50
Systematic Sampling
Advantage: The sample usually will be easier to identify than it would be if simple random sampling were used. Example: Selecting every 100th listing in a telephone book after the first randomly selected listing.
Slide 51
Convenience Sampling
It is a nonprobability sampling technique. Items are included in the sample without known probabilities of being selected. The sample is identified primarily by convenience. Advantage: Sample selection and data collection are relatively easy. Disadvantage: It is impossible to determine how representative of the population the sample is. Example: A professor conducting research might use student volunteers to constitute a sample.
Slide 52
Judgment Sampling
The person most knowledgeable on the subject of the study selects elements of the population that he or she feels are most representative of the population. It is a nonprobability sampling technique. Advantage: It is a relatively easy way of selecting a sample. Disadvantage: The quality of the sample results depends on the judgment of the person selecting the sample. Example: A reporter might sample three or four senators, judging them as reflecting the general opinion of the senate.
Slide 53
End of Chapter 7
Slide 54

Slides Prepared by John S. Loucks St. Edward's University: 1 Slide © 2003 Thomson/South-Western

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Slides Prepared by JOHN S. LOUCKS St.

Chapter 7 Sampling and Sampling Distributions

Simple Random Sampling

Simple Random Sampling

Simple Random Sampling

Simple Random Sampling

Example: St. Andrews

Example: St. Andrews

Example: St. Andrews

Example: St. Andrews

Taking a Census of the 900 Applicants SAT Scores Population Mean

Population Standard Deviation

Example: St. Andrews

Example: St. Andrews

Example: St. Andrews

Example: St. Andrews

Example: St. Andrews

Random No. Number 1 744 2 436 3 865 4 790 5 835 . . 30 685

Example: St. Andrews

Using Excel to Select a Simple Random Sample

Note: Rows 10-901 are not shown.

Using Excel to Select a Simple Random Sample

Note: Rows 10-901 are not shown.

Using Excel to Select a Simple Random Sample

Value Worksheet (Sorted)

Note: Rows 10-901 are not shown.

Example: St. Andrews

Point Estimates x as Point Estimator of

Example: St. Andrews

The value of x is used to make inferences about the value of .

The sample data provide a value for the sample mean x.

= the population mean

Standard Deviation of x Finite Population Infinite Population

A finite population is treated as being

Example: St. Andrews

for the SAT Scores

Example: St. Andrews

Example: St. Andrews

for the SAT Scores

Example: St. Andrews

for the SAT Scores

Example: St. Andrews

for the SAT Scores

Area = 2(.2518) = .5036

Standard Deviation of p Finite Population Infinite Population

p is referred to as the standard error of the

Example: St. Andrews

Sampling Distribution of p for In-State Residents

Example: St. Andrews

Sampling Distribution of p for In-State Residents

.72(1 .72) p .082 30

Example: St. Andrews

Example: St. Andrews

Sampling Distribution of p for In-State Residents

0.67 0.72 0.77

Example: St. Andrews

Example: St. Andrews

Sampling Distribution of p for In-State Residents

Area = 2(.2291) = .4582

0.67 0.72 0.77

Stratified Random Sampling

Stratified Random Sampling