The South China Sea’s Roiled Waters:

Diplomatic Settlement or Destabilizing

Naval Arms Build Up?

Professor Carl Thayer

Australian Institute of International Affairs
(ACT Branch)
July 7, 2009
 Overview
 StrategicOverview
 Maritime territorial claims
 Chinese assertiveness
 Roiled waters, 2009
 Yulin Naval Base, Hainan Island
 Naval arms build up
 Diplomatic prospects
1. Strategic Overview
Paracel (Xisha
or Hoang Sa)
and
Spratly
(Nansha or
Truong Sa)
Archipelagoes
2. Maritime territorial claims

China’s
historical
claims –
undefined
stroke
marks on
a map
Inter-mixed pattern of occupation
 3. Chinese assertiveness 2007
• BP oil and gas plans shelved temporarily
under Chinese pressure (March-June)
• Chinese naval vessels detain 4 Vietnamese
fishing craft (April)
• Chinese sink one Vietnamese boat and kill
one fisherman (9th July)
• PLAN naval exercise in Paracels (November)
• National People’s Council creates Shansa
county level administrative district
Chinese Response to Vietnam’s
‘Maritime Strategy to 2020’
 Anti-China Student Demonstrations

Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City

on 9th and 16th Dec. 2007
 China’s ‘Invasion Plan’

Posted on Chinese web sites in August 2008

 4. Roiled Waters, 2009
 UN Commission on the Limits of the
Continental Shelf (CLCS) deadline May 13
 Malaysia’s Prime Minister visits Swallow
Reef to assert sovereignty
 Philippines Archipelagic Baselines Act
 Malaysia-Vietnam make joint submission
to UN CLCS; Vietnam also submits
separate submission; China lodges
protest
UN Commission on Limits of Continental Shelf – May 13, 2009
USNS Impeccable Incident
Unilateral Chinese
Fishing Ban,
May 16-August 1, 2009
 Roiled Waters, 2009
 May-June: Armed Chinese vessels adopt
aggressive measures, chase Vietnamese
fishing boats, sink one, seize fishing catch,
one fatality reported
 May: Joint trade ministry web site shut
 June: Three Vietnamese boats seized, two
later freed, other boat subject to hefty fine
and 12 crew detained
5. Yulin Naval Base, Hainan Island
 Sanya
Naval Base
5 Aug 05 to
28 Feb 08
Yulin Naval Base
Deep Sea Trench – SSBN Patrol Area
China’s ‘String of Pearls’
Chinese Airstrip Woody Island, Paracel Archipelago
 Fiery Cross and Mischief Reefs

Consolidation of facilities
on Fiery Cross and
permanent naval presence
at Mischief Reef
6. Naval arms build up
Vietnamese Naval Modernisation

Tarantul Frigate

BPS 500 Missile Boat

Area Denial – Submarine Acquisitions

China - 5 SSBNs
by 2010
Singapore - 4
Malaysia - 2
Indonesia - 3
Vietnam - 6
Australia - 12

US re-
Vietnam in market for up to six deployments to
Project 636 Kilo class submarines Western
Pacific
6. Prospects for Diplomatic Settlement
 Bilateral
 China-Vietnam + Philippines
 China-Malaysia
 Vietnam + Indonesia & Malaysia

 Multilateral
 ASEAN Code of Conduct?
 ASEAN Regional Forum

 Outside Balancers – United States

The South China Sea’s Roiled Waters:
Diplomatic Settlement or Destabilizing
Naval Arms Build Up?

Professor Carl Thayer

AIIA (ACT Branch)
July 7, 2009