Software Project Planning

Infsy 570 Dr. R. Ocker

SWE economics analysis (Boehm, 84):

throughout the software lifecycle, there are many decision situations involving limited resources

Examples

feasibility phase
how much should we invest in analyses?

plans and requirements phase

how rigorously should we specify requirements?

design phase:
should we use existing sw which does not completely meet the requriements?

test phase:
how much testing is enough?

Analyzing risk and uncertainty

can apply basic micro economic analysis to these questions in sw engineering, must make decisions under conditions of uncertainty can reduce uncertainty, and therefore make better decisions, by buying information e.g. prototyping is a way of buying information to reduce uncertainty about risky functionality

Question must ask:

How much information-buying is enough?

Project Planning

sw project management process begins with project planning

objective of sw project planning - to provide a framework for manager to make reasonable estimates of resources, costs and schedules

project estimation

first step in project planning

estimate resources, cost, and schedule for sw development project requires experience and access to historical information

project estimation

estimation is risky business - lots of uncertainty due to:

project complexity project size degree of structural uncertainty - degree to which requirements are solidified availability of historical information

risk - measured by degree of uncertainty in quantitative estimates

project estimation

evolutionary process models - iterative view of development possible to revise the estimate estimates made at beginning of sw project should be updated regularly estimates should define best case and worst case

Activities associated with project planning

Software scope resources project estimation decomposition

1. software scope

want to establish a project scope that is unambiguous and understandable at management and technical levels describes:
function performance constraints interfaces reliability

2. resources

must estimate resources required to accomplish the development effort

fig. 5.2 development resources pyramid

a. hw and sw tools

foundation of resources pyramid, provides infrastructure to support development sw engineering environment must prescribe the time-frame required for hw and sw verify that these resources will be available

b. reusable sw components

next level, can reduce development costs reuse considerations often ignored can greatly reduce development time

c. people - top of pyramid

select skills needed

each resource specified with 4 characteristics

1. description of resource 2. statement of availability 3. chronological time resource will be needed 4. duration of time resource used

3. project estimation

cost estimates must be provided up front but... the longer we wait, the more we know, and the better our estimates

a. use of decomposition techniques:

divide and conquer approach decompose project into major functions and related swe activities cost and effort estimates performed in stepwise fashion

b. empirical estimation models

can complement decomposition techniques or used alone model is based on historical data examples: LOC, FP SW cost estimation relies on good historical data

4. decomposition techniques

decompose the problem (i.e., sw project estimation) into set of smaller problems from chp. 3 - 2 types of decomposition a. decomposition of the problem b. decomposition of the process before decomposition, must understand project scope and generate estimate of project size accuracy of estimate strongly influenced by accuracy of size estimate

Problem-based estimation

direct measure - LOC indirect measure - FP a. begin with bounded statement of sw scope b. decompose sw into problem functions that can each individually be estimated c. apply sizing measure to each function e.g. LOC, FP, OO (classes, objects) d. apply baseline productivity metrics (e.g., LOC/pm, FP/pm)

decomposition

decomposition is different for LOC vs. FP: for LOC - decomposition must be detailed for FP - looking at input, output, inquiries, data files, interfaces etc. planner uses historical data or intuition (not recommended)

estimation

make 3 estimates for each function: optimistic, most likely, pessimistic then compute 3 point or expected value see 5.1 then apply historical LOC or FP productivity data (e.g. FP/pm)

Process-based estimation

most common technique for estimating project process is decomposed into a small set of activities or task effort required to complete each is estimated

Process-based estimation

a. determine sw functions using project scope document b. meld sw process activities and functions determine sw process activities that must be performed for each function functions and process activities can be part of a table - see fig 3.2

Process-based estimation

c. apply average labor rates to the effort estimated for each process activity d. compute costs and effort for each function and software process activitey can perform process-based estimate independently of LOC or FP then have 2-3 estimates of cost and effort to compare and reconcile

5. empirical estimation models

The COCOMO Model: Constructive Cost Model [Boehm, 1984]

hierarchy of 3 increasingly detailed software estimation models:

model 1

Basic COCOMO model computes effort and cost estimated as LOC

model 2

Intermediate COCOMO model computes effort and cost using a set of cost drivers includes subjective assessments of product, hw, personnoel, and project attributes

model 3

Advanced COCOMO model incorporates the intermediate version with an assessment of the cost dirvers impact on each step (analysis, design, etc.)

Steps for intermediate level (see Boehm, 1984 for detailed example):

Four steps

Step 1 - Nominal effort estimation

determine projects development mode (organic, semidetached, embedded) estimate size of the project

Step 2 - Determine effort multipliers

15 cost drivers within model - each has a rating scale and a set of effort multipliers which modifies step 1 estimate

Step 3 - Estimate development effort

compute estimated development effort = nominal effort X product of effort multipliers for 15 cost driver attributes

Step 4 - Estimate related project factors

model has additional costing estimation relationships for computing dollar cost of project and for breakdown by lifecycle phase and by type of project acitivity can estimate project schedule

9 Management Guidelines for better cost estimating (Lederer and Prasad)

paper reports results of survey on cost estimating practices of 115 computer professionals

Need for better estimates

63% of all large projects (over $50,000) significantly overrun cost estimates only 25% of projects completed at cost reasonably close to project estimate

Guidelines

Based on results of survey, authors developed 9 guidelines for better cost estimation

1. Assign the initial estimating task to the final developers

2 approaches: a. separate-function approach

use experienced group of estimators to conduct the feasibility study and prepare initial project estimate

b. combined-function approach
final analysts and programmers prepare initial estimate during feasibility study get more accurate estimates with this approach

2. Delay finalizing the initial estimate until the end of a thorough study

often prepare initial cost estimate at beginning of project and then revise it (repeatedly) during the project found that revision of estimate does not increase accuracy people seem to look to the original estimate, not the revised estimate, when judging cost estimation accuracy - so better to be right the first time!

3. Anticipate and control user changes

when lots of changes, like trying to estimate cost of a moving target estimators need to thoroughly understand user requirments before they estimate its cost
should be able to reduce and control frequent change requests discourage unnecessary user changes charge extra!

4. Monitor the progress of the proposed project

5. Evaluate project progress by using independent auditors

most projects usually monitored by those involved in it more accurate estimates occur when independent auditors are present

6. Use the estimate to evaluate project personnel

cost estimating used more for project planning and control than for evaluation of personnel could use positive rewards for personnel who provide accurate estimates and for those that meet the estimates

7.Computing management should carefully study and approve the cost estimate

need to conduct a cost/benefit review before system development begins

8. Rely on documented facts, standards, and simple arithmetic formulas rather than guessing, intuition, personal memory, and complex formulas.

greater accuracy found when do the above less accuracy when rely on intuition and personal memory, which is customary

9. Dont rely on cost estimating software for an accurate estimate.

packages dont improve estimation, and lower the satisfaction level of the estimators

Words of wisdom

there is no way a cost estimation technique can compensate for the lack of definition or understanding of the sw job to be done

Words of wisdom

there is no magic formula that will provide an easy and accurate substitute for the process of thinking through and fully understanding the nature of the software product to be developed

Words of wisdom

unless a software project has clear definitions of its key milestones and realistic estimates of the time and money it will take to achieve them, there is no way that a project manager can tell whether the project is under control or not