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Inventory drawdown harmed 2013 production but is near its end Higher production going forward due to higher demand and rebuilding of stockpiles
Good start to US earnings season 71% positive EPS surprise Revenue growth better than expected Banks continue to improve, especially BofA Prefer cyclicals like financials, auto, industrials
Russian examples which are driven by high return and strong momentum: M Video / MegaFon / Sollers / Sistema / Magnit
6.5
6.0
5.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Broken BRICs
Source: blog.yardeni.com
10
Source: blog.yardeni.com
11
12
13
38.00
0.8 0.6
0.4 0.2 0
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1. 2. 3.
Prices already close to cost floors EM demand slowing after years of strong activity Supply growth constrained Positive skew to event risk DM growth less raw material intensive than EM
Downside risks Production catching up with demand Slowing growth rates in EM and China US economy hitting a soft patch Dollar appreciation Lack of credit for commodity transactions
4. 5.
15
16
17
DJ-UBS
Energy 32%
Grain 23%
100
Indust. 17%
Precious 15%
95
S&P GSCI
90
DB Opt Yield Div CI (DBC:arcx) ipath DJ-UBS CI (DJP:arcx) iShares S&P GSCI (GSG:arcx)
85 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Commodities included:
Source: Bloomberg, Saxo Bank
19 21 6
18
Total investments in commodities have fallen to $349 bn dollars from $427 bn in 2012
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-1.0
Gold, USD/oz
US 10-year real rates (rhs, inv)
0.5
Risk to gold
Rising real interest rates Lack of inflationary pressures despite massive stimulus Global growth continuing to improve Demand for safe-haven assets are slowing India raising import taxes Switch from risk on/off to growth on
3000 2500
2000
1500
800
600 2013
2009
2010
2011
2012
20
35 30
50 45 40 35 30
Silver
25 20
15 USD/ounce
21
22
23
24
25
26
http://www.businessinsider.com/most-important-charts-in-the-world-q4-2013-10#francisco-blanch-bofa-merrill-lynch-101
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Arab Spring
Iran sanctions
Syria crisis
85
80
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Forecast
Gold
Silver HG Copper
1325
22 3.25
1350
22.5 3.30
1300
22.5 3.20
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Long
302,446 57,893 49,471 39,973
Change
-13,648 -1,687 -7,549 -7,777
Short
27,348 10,739 7,697 17,943
Change
-7,787 333 -2,255 680
Net position
275,098 47,154 41,774 22,030 276,444 78,654 12,198 29,102 22,042 5,284 135,252 61,298 -24,581 -126,345 -35,000 15,669 62,368 68,336 -22,950 44,392 1,072 39,155 7,609 97,952
Net Change
-5,861 -2,020 -5,294 -8,457 -6,837 8,541 -1,794 -56 800 9,091 -12,499 -2,092 -1,808 -22,134 15,882 1,012 33,985 390 2,250 1,620 -1,792 10,766 2,949 2,876
1 yr high
334,094 49,174 90,542 52,961 456,475 198,194 38,618 42,559 25,742 24,531 176,907 69,890 7,419 282,849 55,269 51,666 75,479 68,336 -172 82,715 8,819 64,165 7,609 97,952
1 yr low
100,021 6,425 23,216 -21,336 56,050 31,197 -2,982 17,229 6,278 -38,951 43,580 16,421 -55,111 -126,345 -50,882 -7,866 -88,140 10,343 -30,162 -19,327 -1,798 1,947 -3,767 -11,446
Price change
-2.2%
-0.1% -1.2% -6.8% 0.5% -0.9% -0.3% 1.8% 1.0% -2.2% -3.4% -0.4% -1.2% 2.4% 2.1% 3.8% -0.4% 2.5% -0.5% -0.4% 1.7% 0.9% 1.7%
30
WTI Crude
Long 350 Short Net Price (rhs) 250
120
110
100 150
90 50
-50
80
-150
70
31
Thank you!
33