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Risk Assessment
Risk assessment and risk analysis of technical systems
can be defined as a set of systematic methods to:
Identify hazards Quantify risks Determine components, safety measures and/or human
Risk assessment
Risk analysis is teamwork Ideally risk analysis should be done by bringing together experts with different backgrounds:
chemicals human error process equipment
Risk Assessment
System definition
Hazard identification
Analysis of accident scenarios
Estimation of accident frequencies
Consequence analysis and modelling
Scheme for qualitative and quantitative assessments At all steps, risk reducing measures need to be considered
Risk estimation
mitigating the risk Risk communication: presenting this material in an understandable way to decision makers and/or the public
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Threat
Fire
Water Theft
Threat Priority 3 2 2
Impact Priority 5 5 3
Risk Factor 8 7 5
Slide #10
presentations
Consequence Analysis
The process of examining the possible effects of a
planned activity. Consequence means Something that logically or naturally follows from an action or condition.
PROCESS
Step 1:-Identify one critical event the initiating event Step 2 :-Identify the effects of this event, using event tree method Step 3 :-Determine what protective actions should be triggered these form the decision boxes in the chart Step 4 :-Consider the effects of these actions note that actions may fail, or be triggered in the wrong circumstances Step 5 :-Represent the results of steps 2-4 in consequence notation Step 6 :-Identify potential causes of the initiating event, and represent the results in fault tree notation Step 7 :-Identify potential causes of failure of the protective mechanisms; represent these as fault trees resulting in the NO branch of the decision box
Dispersion
Near miss
BLEVE
Consequence event tree for a flammable pressure-liquefied gas hole below liquid level
Pressureliquefied Gas
Two-phase jet
No ignition Dispersion
2-phase jet
(performed by consultants) Most complete consequence assessment software packages are expensive Some software is available for specific consequences (ARCHIE, ALOHA etc.) Some models are described in detail in handbooks (e.g. Yellow Book, TNO, Netherlands book)