EVOLUTION OF TACTICS

EVOLUTION OF TACTICS
Military operations by AMISON have resulted in Al-Shabaab losing much of the territory it once held in central and southern Somalia. Significant territorial losses were incurred when Ethiopian and Kenyan troops attacked its southern and western strongholds in late 2011. The group has been forced to the periphery of Somalia since abandoning its southern stronghold in Kismayo in September 2012. UN Deputy Secretary General Jan Eliasson said last week that "up to 3,000 AMISOM soldiers have been killed", while fighting Al-Shabaab in Somalia.

Kenyan troops supporting AMISOM mission

EVOLUTION OF TACTICS
Al-Shabaab, which had become of the most powerful and radical armed faction in Somalia has been forced into a tactical shift away from holding territory to asymmetric, guerilla style warfare

Instead of launching frontline assaults on enemy positions, al-Shababs frontline fighting force, Jaysh al-`Usra (Army of Hardship/Difficulty), has focused on hit-andrun attacks on AMISOM, Transitional Federal Government, Kenyan, and Ethiopian forces and their allies. The move towards a more insurgent-based approach may have been forced by defection from the group. A smaller number of fighters means that frontal attacks on trained and equipped armies are not viable. Data from the Centre for New American Security highlights asymmetric nature of Al-Shabaabs tactical approach. A database of attacks between September 30, 2012 and December 5, 2012 shows 68 attacks in which 144 people were killed and 300 wounded

EVOLUTION OF TACTICS

EVOLUTION OF TACTICS

EVOLUTION OF TACTICS

EVOLUTION OF TACTICS
The re-focusing of Al-Shabaabs military strategy has led it to execute guerilla style attacks on military checkpoints and planting improvised explosive devices in supposedly liberated areas. Assassinations of military officers and Somali government officials are an important element of Al-Shabaabs strategy. They disrupt its enemies and undermine the TFGs attempts to produce a more stable security and political environment. It raises doubts about whether liberated areas are really liberated. Al-Shabaab has become a savvy user of mass communications to showcase its military operations and transmit its ideological views. Some members have embraced the use of social media such as Twitter. Mass communication methods allows it to present an image of power by highlighting its ability to strike at the TFG, AMISOM and other high value targets.

THREAT TO AUSTRALIA
Al-Shabaab came into focus after a plot to attack the Holsworthy Barracks was foiled in August 2009.

Operation Neath involved ASIO, AFP, Victorian and NSW police, and NSW Crime Commission.
Three found guilty - Wissam Mahmoud Fattal, Saney Edow Aweys, and Nayef El Sayed. Some of the co-conspirators had sought a fatwa, or religious ruling, in Somalia to conduct attacks in Australia.

THREAT TO AUSTRALIA
Why does Australia care about Al-Shabaab? The Holsworthy Barracks plot highlighted the threat to national security Australians travelling to Somalia may receive terrorist training and be radicalised Al-Shabaab suicide bombers have promoted jihad in Australia.

my brothers and sisters, do Jihad in America, do Jihad in Canada, do Jihad in England [and] anywhere in Europe, in Asia, in Africa, in China, in Australia - anywhere you find kuffar [infidels]. Fight them and be firm against them".
Abdisalam Ali in a video prior to killing himself on October 29, 2011

Some members of the local Somali community may be funding Al-Shabaab The Australian government has an interests in bringing stability to a country that has been a haven for terrorists and pirates by donating funds and equipment to AMISOM.

THREAT TO AUSTRALIA
The Australian Security Intelligence Organisation (ASIO) and Australian Secret Intelligence Service (ASIS) have highlighted the ongoing threat to national security posed by Al-Shabaab and extremist activities in Somalia.
Although the weakening of the al-Qaeda core has altered the destinations of choice for Australian born extremists, Somalia and Yemen training camps have now become as attractive as their Afghanistan and Pakistan counterparts.
ASIO Director General David Irvine, September 4, 2012.

The tragedy of the 2002 Bali bombings provided a great impetus to ASIS's work, which continues nearly a decade later. This event and 9/11, have seen ASIS intensify its focus on the very real threat posed by organisations like al Qaeda and the affiliates it has inspired with a web of links between extremists from Australia to Indonesia, to the southern Philippines, to the FATA region in Pakistan, and to al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula in Yemen, and on to Somalia. ASIS Director General Nick Warner, July 19, 2012.

THREAT TO AUSTRALIA
The Australian Transaction Reports and Analysis Centre (AUSTRAC) has raised concerns about funds being raised domestically and sent to support Al-Shabaab related activities after the Holsworthy Barracks plot highlighted the transfer of funds to Somalia. Investigating officers, assisted by AUSTRAC information, discovered that the suspects had sent thousands of dollars in low-value international funds transfer instructions (IFTIs) to Somalia. Authorities suspected these IFTIs were to support the aims of alShabaab and associated military training activities overseas.
AUSTRAC typologies and case studies report 2012 case study 21

There have been media reports (Sydney Morning Herald, March 14, 2012) that ASIO remains concerned about the transfer of funds from some of Australias 16,000 strong Somali community to Al-Shabaab related entities. Somalis supporting community fund raising may be unaware about where those funds are destined.

THREAT TO AUSTRALIA
The Australian government has demonstrated its willingness to fight the threat of AlShabaab through a $2 million contribution to the United Nations Trust Fund for the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM). Bomb suits and counter-IED equipment has also been provided. "Al-Shabaab continues to pose a threat in Somalia, more broadly in Africa, and well beyond its borders including in Australia, and much works lies ahead.
Minister of Defence Stephen Smith January 24, 2012

Australia has an interest in bringing stability to Somalia given the presence of a small number of Australian resource companies operating in the country.

RECOMMENDATION
Al-Shabaab should remain designated a terrorist organisation under Division 102 of the Criminal Code. Al-Shabaab has been pushed back by African-led AMISOM troops it remains a threat to the stability of Somalia. The group has evolved from an organised military force confronting enemies to an unpredictable insurgency that have embraced asymmetric means to undermine stability in pursuit of its aims. Its recent terrorist actions shows it still has the capability to inflict substantial damage on government and civilian targets. This is undermining the attempts to stabilise a country that has been home to terrorists and pirates threatening traffic in key sea-lanes. The connection with Al-Qaeda adds additional risk given AQs focus on hitting western targets. This is a threat to Australias national security given concerns among our intelligence agencies about support for Al-Shabaab within Australia. Australian intelligence agencies are concerned Australians may be travelling to Somalia for AlShabaab training. These Australians will also be exposed to the risk of radicalisation.