Modelling for Fire Investigation: Lessons from The Dalmarnock Fire Tests

Guillermo Rein & J. L. Torero BRE Centre for Fire Safety Engineering University of Edinburgh

The Art of Fire Modelling

Modelling of: Ignition, Flame, Plume, Smoke, Spread, Visibility, Toxicity, Extinction Modelling for: Performance based design, Live safety, Structural response, Risk analysis, Forensic investigations,

Fire Modelling vs. Fire Models

There are many papers addressing the validation of fire models Different models (FDS, SmartFire, CFX, FLUENT, CFAST, ) Different scenarios Focus on the mathematical engines Validations are done a posteriori This is of great value for research and development but introduce a natural bias

The Validation of Fire Modelling

1. 2.

Has the whole process of fire modelling been validated? Are the results the same if modellers do not have access to the results a priori?

Do we really know all the Strengths and Limitations of fire modelling as in realistic scenarios?

The need for Round-Robin

Studies

In 2006, Edinburgh organzied a Round-Rboin study of fire modelling using the large-scale tests conducted in Dalmarnock. International pool of experts independently provide a priori predictions of Dalmarnock Fire Test One using a common set of information describing the scenario.

Dalmarnock Fires - July 2006

N

Fire

Abecassis-Empis et al., Characterisation of Dalmarnock Fire Test One, Experimental Thermal and Fluid Science 32 (7), pp. 1334-1343, 2008.

Flat Layout

Abecassis-Empis et al., Characterisation of Dalmarnock Fire Test One, Experimental Thermal and Fluid Science 32 (7), pp. 1334-1343, 2008.

Fuel Load

Mixed

livingroom/office space Fuel load is ~ 32 kg/m2 of equivalent wood Test set-up designed for robustness and high repeatability

Heavily Instrumented
Deflection Gauges 8 Lasers

20 Heat Flux Gauges

10 Smoke Detectors

10 CCTV

ENLARGE

ENLARGE

ENLARGE

ENLARGE

14 Velocity Probes CCTV 270 Thermocouple

Video

Average Compartment Temperature

Abecassis-Empis et al., Characterisation of Dalmarnock Fire Test One, Experimental Thermal and Fluid Science 32 (7), pp. 1334-1343, 2008.

Aftermath

Modelling for Fire Investigation

Modelling

needs to Reconstruct the events with no data of the fire Evidence has to match the models and can not be used to steer the models Requirements are very similar to an apriori model

Information given to Modelling Teams

Detailed geometry (plan and dimensions) Detailed fuel load (dimensions, locations, photographs, descriptions) Ventilation conditions (including breakage of one window) Photographs of set up in the compartment HRR of sofa as measured in the laboratory Information to be complimented by the teams decisions As in any other fire modelling work

Simulations

10 Submitted simulations: 8 Field Models (FDS v4) and 2 Zone models (CFAST v6)

NOTE: teams were asked to forecast as accurately as possible and not to use safety factors usually applied for design purposes

G Rein et al. Round-Robin Study of a priori Modelling Predictions of The Dalmarnock Fire Test One, Fire Safety Journal (in press), 2009.

"I always avoid prophesying beforehand because it is much better to prophesy after the event has already taken place"
Sir Winston Churchill, circa 1945

Possible Outcomes: a priori discussions

A B

Variables shown here: HRR, Smoke layer, Wall temperature and heat fluxes

Results: Heat Release Rate

Hot Layer Temperature

Hot Layer Height

Local Temperatures

Local Heat Flux to Wall (vs time)

Local Wall Temperatures (vs. time)

Strength in Diversity?

Analysis of Assumptions
Analysis of input file is a cumbersome task falling out of our scope But general classification yields: Means to input/predict the HRR: 2 fully-prescribed HRR (***) 7 partially prescribed HRR (**) 1 fully predicted HRR (*)

Means to input the ignition source: 5 did not used the Sofa curve measured (**) 3 used the Sofa curve measured but extrapolated (**) 1 used the Sofa curve as measured (*)
G Rein et al. Round-Robin Study of a priori Modelling Predictions of The Dalmarnock Fire Test One, Fire Safety Journal (in press), 2009.

Conclusions
assessment of the state-of-the-art for a real scenario

Large scatter around the measurements (much larger than experimental error) Results are very sensitive to assumptions of material properties, fire growth
Inherent difficulties of predicting dynamics

G Rein et al. Round-Robin Study of a priori Modelling Predictions of The Dalmarnock Fire Test One, Fire Safety Journal (in press), 2009.

But Lets look into the bright side

Work conducted by Universities of Jaen and Murcia

Cubic atrium 20 m long sides Pool fires in the range from 1 to 3 MW. Fully instrumented to asses fire prediction capabilities in large enclosures, smoke movement and effect of exhaust fans

Gutirrez-Montes, Experimental Data and Numerical Modelling of 1.3 and 2.3 MW Fires in a 20 m Cubic Atrium, Building and Environment (in press), 2009.

Murcia Fire Tests in a 20-m cube

Gutirrez-Montes, Experimental Data and Numerical Modelling of 1.3 and 2.3 MW Fires in a 20 m Cubic Atrium, Building and Environment (in press), 2009.

Grid effects vs. Plume Theory

for a 1.3 MW fire

Gutirrez-Montes, Experimental Data and Numerical Modelling of 1.3 and 2.3 MW Fires in a 20 m Cubic Atrium, Building and Environment (in press), 2009.

20-m Atrium Exp vs. Modelling: Plume Temperature

height of 4.5 m height of 8.5 m

for a 1.3 MW fire

height of 12.5 m

height of 20 m

Gutirrez-Montes, Experimental Data and Numerical Modelling of 1.3 and 2.3 MW Fires in a 20 m Cubic Atrium, Building and Environment (in press), 2009.

20-m Atrium Exp vs. Modelling: Temperature near the side walls
height of 15 m height of 10 m

for a 1.3 MW fire

height of 5 m

Gutirrez-Montes, Experimental Data and Numerical Modelling of 1.3 and 2.3 MW Fires in a 20 m Cubic Atrium, Building and Environment (in press), 2009.

Texas City Dispersion Model

Damage Correlation

Qualitative

correlation allows to explain areas of damage

Lessons and Recommendations

Fire predictions work well away from the flame and in simple geometries (where most fire models have been calibrated) Modelling with prescribed source works well Modelling of fire growth does not provide good results Best practice is in absence of laboratory results is that fire growth of complex scenarios should not be predicted by the model

Modelling is a complex skill that requires great knowledge and experience it is not

Thanks
Work conducted in collaboration with: Jos L. Torero, Wolfram Jahn, Candido Gomez Montes, Jamie Stern-Gottfried, Noah L. Ryder, Sylvain Desanghere, Mariano Lzaro, Frederick Mowrer, Andrew Coles, Allan Jowsey and Pedro Reszka

Tests One and Two: Repeatability

Local Heat Flux to Wall (vs. height)

Local Wall Temperatures (vs. height)