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Metric: Trial
First-time users as a percentage of the target population. Purpose: Over time, sales should rely less on trial and more on repeat purchasers.
Metric: Penetration
Users in the previous period, multiplied by repeat rate for the current period, plus new triers in the current period. Purpose: Measure of the population buying in the current period.
TRIAL VOLUME
Trial rates are often estimated on the basis of surveys of potential customers. Typically, these surveys ask respondents whether they will definitely or probably buy a product. referred to as the top two boxes.
Because not all respondents follow through on their declared purchase intentions, firms often make adjustments to the percentages in the top two boxes in developing sales projections. For example, some marketers estimate that 80% of respondents who say theyll definitely buy and 30% of those who say that theyll probably buy will in fact purchase a product when given the opportunity
Awareness: Sales projection models include an adjustment for lack of awareness of a product within the target market. Distribution: Another adjustment to test market trial rates is usually applied accounting for the estimated availability of the new product.
Adjusted Trial Rate (%) =Trial Rate (%) * Awareness (%) * ACV (%) Trial Population (#) = Target Population (#) * Adjusted Trial Rate (%) Trial Volume (#) = Trial Population (#) * Units per Purchase (#) Combining all these calculations, the entire formula for trial volume is Trial Volume (#) = Target Population (#) * [(80% * Definitely Buy (#)) + (30% * Probably Buy (#)) * Awareness (%) * ACV (%)] * Units per Purchase (#)
REPEAT VOLUME
Repeat Buyers (#) = Trial Population (#) * Repeat Rate (%) Repeat Volume (#)= Repeat Buyers (#) * Repeat Unit Volume per Customer (#) * Repeat Occasions (#) The full formula can be written as Repeat Volume (#) = [Repeat Rate (%) * Trial Population (#)] * Repeat Volume per Customer (#) * Repeat Occasions (#)
TOTAL VOLUME
Total Volume (#) = Trial Volume + Repeat Volume To capture total volume in its fully detailed form, we need only combine the previous formulas. Total Volume (#) = [Target Population * ((0.8 * Definitely Buy + 0.3 * Probably Buy) * Awareness * ACV) * Units per Trial Purchase] + [(Repeat Rate * Trial Population) * Repeat Volume per Customer * Repeat Occasions]
Conjoint utilities measure consumer preference for an attribute level and then by combining the valuations of multiple attributesmeasure preference for an overall choice. Measures are generally made on an individual basis, although this analysis can also be performed on a segment level. In the frozen pizza market, for example, conjoint utilities can be used to determine how much a customer values superior taste (one attribute) versus paying extra for premium cheese (a second attribute). Conjoint analysis can be useful in determining what customers really want and when price is included as an attributewhat theyll pay for it. In launching new products, marketers find such analyses useful for achieving a deeper understanding of the values that customers place on various product attributes. Throughout product management, conjoint utilities can help marketers focus their efforts on the attributes of greatest importance to customers. Purpose: To understand what customers want.