PROBALILITY

THEORY
AND
APPLICATIONS
 PROBABILITY THEORY
 Probability Theory is the study of ‘chance’.
 It has vitally important applications in

 Sciences  Economics
 Politics  Sports
 Life insurance  Quality control
 Production management
and host of other areas.
 DEFINITIONS
 Experiment:

An act whose outcomes are known in

advance but is not possible to predict one
with surety.

 SampleSpace (S):
The set of all possible outcomes of an
experiment.
SAMPLE SPACE
SAMPLE SPACE
 DEFINITIONS
 Event:

Any subset of the sample space.

 Equally likely events:

Equal chance of happening each of the

outcome.
 Exhaustive events:

The events covering the entire sample

space, that is A or B = S.
 DEFINITIONS
 Exclusive events:
Events that do not have any common
happening.
 Sure event:

An event that is certain to happen.

 Impossible event:

An event that is not at all possible to

happen.
MORE ABOUT..
 FORMULAE
 For any event A,
P(A) = n (A) / n (S)
And 0 ≤ P(A) ≤ 1.
 For two events A and B,

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A and B)

 If A and B are mutually exclusive events,

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)

 EXAMPLE 1
 Find P(A), P(B) and P(A or B).

8 6
13

Total number of outcomes = 50

 SOLUTION
n (S) = 50
 n (A) = 8 + 6 = 14 ⇒ P(A) = 14/50
 n (B) = 13 + 6 = 19 ⇒ P(B) = 19/50
 n (A and B) = 6 ⇒ P(A and B) = 6/50
 P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A and B)

= 14/50 + 19/50 − 6/50

= 27/50
 EXAMPLE 2
A fair coin is tossed three times. Find the
probability of getting 1 head.
 For the experiment,

Sample Space
=S
= {HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT,
TTH, TTT}
i.e., n (S) = 8
 Continued..
 Let Event A: getting 1 head
Thus,
A = {HTT, THT, TTH}
i.e., n (A) = 3
Hence, probability of getting 1 head
= P(A) = n (A)/n (S)
= 3/8
 EXAMPLE 3
A pair of dice is thrown. Find the
probability of getting (i) a total of 10 (ii)
both odd digits (iii) a total that is multiple 3
 Continued..
 For the experiment,
S = {(1, 1), (1, 2), (1, 3),….., (6, 6)}
i.e., n (S) = 36
Let event A: total is 10
A = {(4, 6), (5, 5), (6, 4)}
∴ n (A) = 3
Thus, P(A) = 3/36 = 1/12
 Continued..
Let event B: both are odd digits
B = {(1, 1), (1, 3), (1, 5), (3, 1), (3, 3), (3,
5), (5, 1), (5, 3), (5, 5)}
∴ n (B) = 9 and P(B) = 9/36 = ¼
Let event C: total is a multiple of 3
C = {(1, 2), (1, 5), (2, 1), (2, 4), (3, 3), (3,
6), (4, 2), (4, 5), (5, 1), (5, 4), (6, 3), (6, 6)}
∴ n (C) = 12 and P(C) = 12/36 = 1/3
 EXAMPLE 4
 From a well-shuffled pack of 52 cards, a
card is drawn at random. What is the
probability that it is (i) red (ii) spade (iii)
picture (iv) face (v) heart or king.
 Continued..
 Forthe experiment,
S = {AS, 2S, .., KS, AH, 2H, .., KH, AC, 2C, ..,
KC, AD, 2D, .., KD}
i.e., n (S) = 52
Let event A: red card is drawn
(Heart and Diamond)
n (A) = 26 and P(A) = 26/52 = 1/2
 Continued..
Let event B: spade card is drawn
(There are 13 cards of spade)
n (B) = 13 and P(B) = 13/52 = ¼

Let event C: picture card is drawn

(There are 16 picture cards)
n (C) = 16 and P(B) = 16/52 = 4/13
 Continued..
Let event D: face card is drawn
(There are 12 face cards)
n (D) = 12 and P(D) = 12/52 = 3/13

Let event E: Heart or King card is drawn

(There are 13 hearts, 4 kings; 1 common)
n (E) = 16 and P(E) = 16/52 = 4/13
 EXAMPLE 5

 SoldierO'Gara, a prison administrator,

has been reviewing the prison records on
attempted escapes by inmates. He has
data covering last 45 years that the prison
has been open, arranged for seasons.
The data are summarized in the table:
 TABLE
Escapes Winter Spring Summer Fall
0 3 2 1 0
1-5 15 10 11 12
6-10 15 12 11 16
11-15 5 8 7 7
16-20 3 4 6 5
21-25 2 4 5 3
25 2 5 4 2
Total 45 45 45 45
 EXAMPLE …
1 What is the probability that in a year
selected at random, the number of
escapes was between 16-20 during the
winter?

2 What is the probability that more than 10

escapes were attempted during a
randomly chosen summer season?
 SOLUTION
 The probability that in a year selected at
random, the number of escapes was
between 16-20 during the winter
= 3/45 = 1/15.
 The probability that more than 10
escapes were attempted during a
randomly chosen summer season
= 22/45.
READY FOR PRACTICE?
READY FOR PRACTICE?
EXERCISE
EXERCISE
EXERCISE
EXERCISE
EXERCISE
 FORMULAE
 For exhaustive events A and not A,
P(A) + P (not A) = 1
 For independent events A and B,

P(A and B) = P(A) × P(B)

 For dependent events A and B,

P(A and B) = P(AB) × P(B)

= P(BA) × P(A)
EXAMPLE 1
 EXAMPLE 2

Total number of marbles = 5 + 3 + 7 = 15

One marble is selected at a time,
∴ n (S) = 15
Let event A: the marble is red
∴ n (A) = 3 and P(A) = 3/15 = 1/5
EXAMPLE 3
 Continued..

Let event B: the marble is green

∴ n (B) = 5 and P(B) = 5/15 = 1/3

Let event C: the marble is blue

∴ n (C) = 7 and P(C) = 7/15

Let event D: the marble is not red (not A)

∴ P(D) = 1 – P(A) = 4/5
 Continued..

Let event E: the marble is neither green nor

blue (A)
∴ P(E) = P(A) = 1/5

Let event F: the marble is green or red

(not blue)
∴ P(F) = P (not C) = 1 – P(C) = 8/15
 EXAMPLE 3

Number of sample points = n (S) = 36

 Solution
 A: Two 3’s = {(3, 3)}
n (A) = 1 and P(A) = 1/36
 B: A 5 and a 6 = {(5, 6), (6, 5)}

n (B) = 2 and P(B) = 1/18

 C: A 5 or a 6 = {(1, 5), (1, 6), (2, 5), (2, 6),
(3, 5), (3, 6), (4, 5), (4, 6), (5, 1), (5, 2), (5,
3), (5, 4), (5, 6), (6, 1), (6, 2), (6, 3), (6, 4),
(6, 5)}
n (C) = 18 and P(C) = 1/2
 Solution.
 D: At least one 6 = {(1, 6), (2, 6), (3, 6), (4,
6), (5, 6), (6, 1), (6, 2), (6, 3), (6, 4), (6, 5),
(6, 6)}
n (D) = 11 and P(D) = 11/36
 E: Exactly one 6 = {(1, 6), (2, 6), (3, 6), (4,
6), (5, 6), (6, 1), (6, 2), (6, 3), (6, 4), (6, 5)}
n (E) = 10 and P(E) = 5/18
 F: No 6’s = not D

P(F) = 1 – P(D) = 1 – 11/36 = 25/36

 Solution..
 G: Sum of 7 = {(1, 6), (2, 5), (3, 4), (4,
3),(5, 2), (6, 1)}
n (G) = 6 and P(G) = 1/6
 H: Sum is greater than 8 = sum is either 9
or 10 or 11.
= {(3, 6), (4, 5), (4, 6), (5, 4), (5, 5), (5, 6),
(6, 3), (6, 4), (6, 5), (6, 6)}
n (H) = 10 and P(H) = 5/18
 Solution…
 I:Sum of 7 or 11
= {(1, 6), (2, 5), (3, 4), (4, 3),(5, 2), (6, 1),
(5, 6), (6, 5)}
n (I) = 8 and P(I) = 2/9
 J: Sum is no more than 8 = Not H

P(J) = 1 - P(H)
= 1 - 5/18
= 13/18
 EXAMPLE 4
One lottery ticket is drawn at random from a set
of 20 tickets numbered 1, 2, …, 20. Find the
probability that the number on the ticket drawn
is divisible by 3 or 5.
Here n (S) = 20.
Let A: number is divisible is divisible by 3 or 5
A = {3, 5, 6, 9, 10, 12, 15, 18, 20}
n (A) = 9
P(A) = 9/20
 If the letters of the word THURSDAY be
arranged at random, what is the probability that
the arrangement
(i) begins with T
(ii) begins with T and ends with U.

 Two cards are drawn from a well shuffled pack

of cards. what is the probability that
(i) both are red cards,
(ii) both are picture cards ,
(iii) one is a heart card and the other is club,
(iv) both are kings,
(v) one of them is an ace card.
 In a batch of 400 bolts, 50 bolts are found
to be defective. A bolt is selected from the
batch. Find the probability that it is non-
defective.
 A bag contains 3 red, 4 blue and 5 green
balls. Three balls are drawn at random.
Find the probability that
(i) all are blue,
(ii) all are of the same colour,
(iii) no ball is green,
(iv) one ball is red,
(v) two balls are blue.
 In a class of 100 students, 70 failed in Maths, 55
failed in Physics and 22 failed in both. One
student is selected at random. Find the
probability that he fails
(i) in both subjects,
(ii) at least in one subject,
(iii) neither of the subjects.
 A room has 3 sockets. From a collection of a
dozen bulbs of which 4 are defective, 5 are
selected at random and put in sockets. Find the
probability that the room
(i) is dark,
(ii) is lighted,
(iii) lighted to its maximum.
 FORMULAE
 Events A and B are independent if the
happening of A does not affect the
happening or non-happening of B and
P(A and B) = P(A) × P(B)
 Events A and B are dependent if the
happening of A does affect the happening
or non-happening of B and
P(AB) = P(A and B) ÷ P(B)
 EXAMPLE 1
 Two students A and B try to solve a problem.
Probability of A solving is 3/5 and of B, 1/3. If
they try independently what is the probability that
the problem is not solved?
 Given P(A) = 3/5 and P(B) = 1/3

P(A and B) = P(A) × P(B) = 3/5 × 1/3 = 1/5

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B)
= 3/5 + 1/3 – 1/5 = 11/15
Thus P (neither A nor B) = 1 – 11/15 = 4/15
 EXAMPLE 2
A purse contains 4 silver and 5 gold coins.
Another purse contains 6 silver and 4 gold coins
A purse is selected and a coin is drawn. What is
the probability that the coin is silver?
 P (selecting each purse) = P(A) = P(B) = 1/2

P (coin is silver)
= P (silver coin is drawn from A or B)
= P(A) × P(SA) + P(B) × P(SB)
= ½ × 4/9 + ½ × 6/10
= 47/90
 EXAMPLE 3
A purchasing agent has placed rush orders for a
particular raw material with two different
suppliers A and B. If neither order arrives in 4
days, the production process must shut down
until at least one of the orders arrives. The
probability that A delivers the material in 4 days
is 0.55 and that B is 0.35. What is the probability
that:
(i) both the suppliers deliver material in 4 days?
(ii) at least one supplier delivers the material in 4
days?
(iii) the production will be shut?
 Solution
 Given: P(A) = P (A supplies in 4 days) = 0.55
P(B) = P (B supplies in 4 days) = 0.35
Thus, P (not A) = 0.45 and P (not B) = 0.65
(i) P (both deliver material in 4 days)
= 0.55 × 0.35 = 0.1925
(ii) P (at least one delivers the material in 4
days) = P (A but not B) + P (not A but B)
= 0.55 × 0.65 + 0.45 × 0.35
= 0.515
 Solution
(iii) P (the production will be shut)
= P (not A and not B)
= 0.45 × 0.65
= 0.2925
There is 29.25% chance that the
production will be shut because of
unavailability of the raw material.
 EXAMPLE 4
 Small cars get better mileage but are not as safe
as big cars. Small cars accounted for 18% of the
vehicles on the road but involved in 11898
deaths in accidents. The probability of an
accident involving a small car leading to fatalities
is 0.128 and the probability of an accident not
involving a small car leading to fatalities is 0.05.
Suppose you learn an accident involving a
fatality, what is the probability a small car was
involved?
Given: P(S) = P (small car on road) = 0.18
P (not S) = 1 – 0.18 = 0.82
P (fatal when small car) = P (FS) = 0.128
P (fatal when not small car)
= P (Fnot S) = 0.05.
P (fatal accident with small car)
= P (S and F)
= 0.18 × 0.128 = 0.02304

P (fatal accident)
P(F) = P (S and F) + P (not S and F)
= 0.18 × 0.128 + 0.82 × 0.05
= 0.06404
P (small car involved  fatal accident)
= P (SF)
= P (S and F) / P(F)
= 0.02304/0.06404
= 0.36
 EXAMPLE 5
A local bank is reviewing its credit card policy
with a view toward recalling some of its credit
cards. In the past approximately 5% of the card
holders have defaulted and the bank has been
unable to collect the outstanding balance.
Hence, management has established a prior
probability of 0.05 that any particular card holder
will default. The bank has further found that the
probability of missing one or more payments is
0.2 for customers who do not default. Of course
the probability of missing one or more payments
for those who default is 1.
 EXAMPLE 5..
 Given that the customer has missed a
payment, compute the probability that the
customer will default.
 The bank would like to recall its card if the
probability that a customer will default is
greater than 0.2. Should the bank recall its
card if the customer misses a monthly
payment? Why or why not?
Tree diagram
Given: P(D) = P (customer defaults) = 0.05
P (not D) = 1 – 0.05 = 0.95
Also, P (misses  defaults) = P (MD) = 1
and P (misses  not default) = P (Mnot D) = 0.2
P (D and M) = P(D) × P (M D) = 0.05 × 1 = 0.05
P(M)
= P(D) × P (M D) + P (not D) × P (M not D)
= 0.05 × 1 + 0.95 × 0.2
= 0.24

P (DM) = 0.05 / 0.24 = 0.21

EXERCISE
EXERCISE
A game is played using a regular 12-faced fair
die, with faces labelled 1 to 12, a coin and a
simple board with nine squares as shown in the
diagram. Initially the coin is placed on the
shaded rectangle, die is rolled and if the
outcome is is prime then coin is moved one
place to R; otherwise it is towards L. The game
stops when the coin reaches either R or L. Find
the probability that the game
(i) ends on 4th move at R,
(ii) ends on 4th move,
(iii) ends on 5th move,
(iv) takes more than six moves.
 In a certain part of the world there are more wet
days than dry days. If a given day is wet, the
probability that the next day will also be wet is
0.8. If a given day is dry, the probability that the
following day will also be dry is 0.6.
Give that Wednesday of a week is dry, calculate
the probability that
(i) Thursday, Friday of the same week are both
wet,
(ii) Friday of that week is wet,
(iii) In a season, there were 44 matches played
over 3 consecutive days with first and third days
were dry. How many of these matches expect
second day as wet?
Thanks