ON TODAYS SHOW

AROUND THE GROUNDS OVERNIGHT, THIS WEEK WRAP OF THE WEEK IN MARKETS WHO WON, WHO LOST AND WHO LOOKED STUPID THE GLOBAL ECONOMY AS WE ENTER 2014 A TECHNICAL OUTLOOK FOR THE S&P 500, THE USD DOLLAR, THE NIKKEI, YEN AND THE AUSSIE AND GOLD GLOBAL CAPITAL FLOW UPDATE A QUICK TOUR OF ASIAN DATA THIS WEEK KEY EVENTS IN THE WEEK AHEAD

AROUND THE GROUNDS - STOCKS

Stocks
Dow S&P FTSE Nikkei Shanghai ASX 200

Weekly Change This Week

1.12% 1.21% 2.01% 0.26% -3.45% 0.89% 16,437 1,842 6,740 15,912 2,013 5,312

21st Dec
16,255 1,820 6,607 15,870 2,085 5,265

AROUND THE GROUNDS GLOBAL FX

Global FX
EURUSD USDJPY GBPUSD AUDUSD USD Index

Weekly Change This Week

0.01% -0.11% 0.91% 0.83% 0.07% 1.3672 103.94 1.6480 0.8992 80.63

21st Dec
1.3670 104.05 1.6332 0.8918 80.57

AROUND THE GROUNDS - COMMODITIES

Commodities
Gold Nymex Crude Copper Bitcoin 10 year treasuries

Weekly Change This Week

4.00% -6.27% 1.49% 47.81% -1.04% $ $ $ $ 1,249.00 3.40 $ $ 92.89 $ 946.00 $ 2.86%

21st Dec
1,201.00 99.10 3.35 640.00 2.89%

THIS WEEK
NON-FARM PAYROLLS, ITS COMPLICATED

WINNERS
US dollar bears non farm payrolls need questioning Stock bulls reduced taper? European Periphery kidding right? Gold Bulls its not dead YET

AUD/USD

LOSERS

US dollar bulls Yen, Euro, Aussie? Growth Bulls what is really going on Global mining shares Eurozone economy what will it take for the ECB to do something?

0.45 0.4 0.35 0.3 0.25 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.05 0 Mar-03

Relative performance of Mining to total market

MSCI Metals:World ratio

Sep-05

Mar-08

Sep-10

Mar-13

Source: Bloomberg

www.GlobalFX.com.au

STUPID
DRAGHI EUROPE IS NOT SLIPPING INTO
JAPANESE STYLE RECESSION BECAUSE I SAY SO.

THE GLOBAL ECONOMY IN 2014

STRONGEST FOR AGES

ANZ LEAD INDICATORS

CITI ECO SURPRISE INDICES

Citi Economic Surprise Index - USA
100.00 80.00 60.00 20.00 40.00 20.00 0.00 -20.00 -40.00 -60.00 -60.00 -80.00 -100.00 Mar-12 May-12 Source: FARM, Bloomberg -80.00 -100.00 Mar-12 May-12 Source: FARM, Bloomberg 0.00 -20.00 -40.00

Citi Economic Surprise Index - BRIC's

60.00 40.00

Citi Economic Surprise G10 Citi Eco Surprise EU

Citi Economic Surprise G10 Citi Eco Surprise EMkts

Jul-12

Sep-12 Nov-12

Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13

Jul-13

Sep-13 Nov-13

Jan-14

Jul-12

Sep-12 Nov-12

Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13

Jul-13

Sep-13 Nov-13

Jan-14

www.GlobalFX.com.au

www.GlobalFX.com.au

PMI CONFIRMS PICK UP

SO DO BOND RATES

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

USD INDEX Retesting the break

EURO UPTREND IN A DOWNTREND

S&P The Big Picture

Hard to buy on the monthly charts

S&P Daily Charts

Daily uptrend since October mini-crash intact

ASX 200 NYET!

Up down and down again

NIKKEI AND YEN

Right on support

GOLD Wedging for a break out?

Still Long will reassess very soon

HOW LOW COULD THE AUSSIE DOLLAR GO

DANGER WILL ROBINSON

MINING SHARES ARE POINTING TO AUD FALL

AUDUSD v Mining/Sharemarket ratio
1.2 1.1 1 AUD/USD 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 Dec-94
Source: Bloomberg

0.45 0.4 AUDUSD MSCI Metals:World ratio 0.35 0.3 0.25 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.05 Jun-97 Dec-99 Jun-02 Dec-04 Jun-07 Dec-09 Jun-12

This is a ratio I used in 1999 to help me guess that the Aussie was headed under 50 cents

www.GlobalFX.com.au

AUSSIE DOLLAR

The downtrend is clear but leaves lots of room for reactions

GLOBAL CAPITAL FLOWS

INTERESTING TRENDS

THE IMPACT OF G3 PICKUP

Better G10 growth driving withdrawals from EMkts

A QUICK TOUR AROUND ASIA

For the whole year of 2013, Chinas total trade exceeded $4trn, and surpassed the US to be the worlds largest trade country Chinas December export growth slowed to 4.3% y/y, from Novembers 12.7%. But the trade surplus narrowed to $25.6bn in December even as the exports slowed. The trade surplus in 2013 was close to $260bn, the highest since the global financial crisis, adding pressure on RMB as a result.

WEEK AHEAD US DATA

Retail sales, CPI and the Beige book along with a raft of company earnings are out which should
give markets enough to find a few trading catalysts. Not to forget NAHB index and housing starts or Industrial production.

And then of course we need to note the fact that markets pushed to extreme levels, or near them
on the weekend, especially in FX as we have discussed already today.

Australia has unemployment later this week and European inflation tomorrow night might
clarify whether the EU is on the road to Tokyo.