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After that fiasco with the cheese being left standing alone taking the blame for polluting the nearby stream, he decided to build a channel to transport the runoff from his feedlots to a treatment pond. He was advised to size the channel based on the expected rainfall in April. However, he is a bit confused. How much rain falls in Sidell in April? He found historic rainfall data for Sidell online at an Illinois State Water Survey site, and found that April rainfall varies from year to year. Please help the farmer and save him from another scandal.
Estimating 80% Dependable Rainfall and 80% Maximum Rainfall from mean and standard
If only the mean and standard deviation of monthly rainfall are known then 80% Dependable Rainfall = Mean - 0.84 x Standard Deviation 80% Maximum Rainfall = Mean + 0.84 x Standard Deviation.
Example : For Sidell the mean rainfall for April is 3.75" and the standard deviation is 1.78
80% Dependable Rainfall = 3.75 - 0.84 x 1.78 = 2.25 80% Maximum Rainfall = 3.75 + 0.84 x 1.78 = 5.25"
-0.84s 0.84s
20%
20%
6. Sort the data in ascending order and determine the non-exceedance probability of each data value
8. Determine the mean and standard deviation of the logs of the precipitation values
9. Determine the cumulative log normal values for the precipitation data
10. Plot the cumulative distribution function for the fitted logNormal Distribution
1 P
Example: If there is a 12.5 percent chance that a storm of a certain magnitude will occur, the return period for that storm is 1.0 = 8 yrs 12.5
1 n R=1-(1- ) T
Example: The chance that an 8-year return period storm will occur over the 5 year life of a project is 1 - ( 1 - 1 )5 = (49%) 0.49 8