Question -1: Compare Metabical to current weight-loss options.

Revolutionary drug. First and the only prescription drug to receive FDA approval

Doesnt have any negative side effects

Unless the users of the drug consumed high levels of fat and calories

Well positioned to capture the share from the overweight individuals who were dissatisfied with the current offerings
OTC drug Alli, diet plans, exercise plans, meal replacement products, weight management support programs and pre-portioned packaged food delivery services

Compete in the prescriptive drug market. At present there was no prescription drug option available specifically for the overweight segment
Good support in the medical community who strongly endorsed it Helped with behaviour modification and led to healthier eating habits Clinical trials proved that Metabical was an effective drug with high success rate in helping overweight individuals lose weight

Question -2: Compare Different forecasting methods

Forecasting Method 1:

Finding the number of overweight individuals in the US and then narrowing down the
target population
Advantages
The method used is very structured Easiest way to determine the target market as the whole market is considered in the analysis Assumption of the data used is minimum. Data is obtained from the market research For a new drug it is difficult to accurately determine the target segment. Use of a broad customer base may be beneficial

Disadvantages
Hard to predict the behaviour of such a broad segment of customer base Difficult to determine income sensitivity. Low income people may not be keen to buy the drug and hence not part of the demand base Product not being sold to the ideal consumer. Hence full value not leveraged

Determining Consumer Base for 5 years using Population Growth of 1.2%

Repurchase Second Supply Percentage Repurchase Second Supply Population Percentage Completing entire program Population Completing entire program

Year

Population

Overweight

Trying to lose Potential weight Users

Target Market Segment

First Time User Population

Total Consumer Base

2008
2009

230000000
232769208

34%
34%

35%
35%

15%
15%

10%
15%

410550
623240

60%
60%

246330
373944

20%
20%

49266
74789

706146 1071972 1446505 1829901 2222320

2010
2011 2012

235571758
238408051 241278493

34%
34% 34%

35%
35% 35%

15%
15% 15%

20%
25% 30%

840991
1063896 1292046

60%
60% 60%

504595
638338 775228

20%
20% 20%

100919
127668 155046

Total Consumer Base = 7,276,844

Question -2: Compare Different forecasting methods

Forecasting Method 2: Using a more aggressive forecast using the results of CSP survey and then narrowing down the consumer base
Advantages
The method used gives a very aggressive forecast It is based on the CSP survey that specifically addressed consumer interest The method uses the data point that 12% of the respondents were ready to immediately go to their health care provider to request a prescription It leverages the uniqueness of the product

Disadvantages
The data point obtained is based on the survey. Small sample size Aggressive forecasting may not result in meeting the forecasted results The estimate used is still very broad and hence difficult to determine consumer buying pattern Drug still not being sold to the ideal consumer

Determining Consumer Base for 5 years using Population Growth of 1.2%

Year

Population

Overweight

Potential Target First Time Users Using Market User Data Point Segment Population

Repurchase Repurchase Percentage Population Total Second Second Completing Completing Consumer Supply Supply entire entire Base Percentage Population program program 60% 60% 60% 60% 60% 563040 854729 1153359 1459057 1771949 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 112608 170946 230672 291811 354390 1614048 2450222 3306297 4182631 5079588

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

230000000 232769208 235571758 238408051 241278493

34% 34% 34% 34% 34%

12% 12% 12% 12% 12%

10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

938400 1424548 1922266 2431762 2953249

Total Consumer Base = 16,632,785

Question -2: Compare Different forecasting methods

Forecasting Method 3: Focus on the Ideal Target Consumer: Educated Females, 35-65 of age

Advantages
Method aims at a particular segment, the ideal consumer base and is based on research studies Metabical was expected to capture a higher penetration of this ideal niche segment Target group was found to be most interested in protecting their health and raising self-esteem The company has a clear market target and hence can price the product accordingly

Disadvantages
The chosen market is a niche market. Large number of potential users of the drug not included Margin of failure to reach targets is very small as catering to the needs of a niche market

Determining Consumer Base for 5 years using Population Growth of 1.2%

Repurchase Second Supply Percentage 60% 60% 60% 60% 60% Repurchase Second Supply Population 774000 913872 1057000 1203442 1353258 Percentage Completing entire program 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% Population Completing entire program 154800 182774 211400 240688 270652

Year

Population

Target Market Segment 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%

First Time User Population 1290000 1523120 1761667 2005737 2255429

Total Consumer Base 2218800 2619767 3030067 3449868 3879339

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

4300000 4351772 4404168 4457194 4510859

Total Consumer Base = 15,197,841

Question -2: Compare Different forecasting methods

Forecasting Method 3: Focus on the Ideal Target Consumer: Educated Females, 35-65 of age

Advantages
Method aims at a particular segment, the ideal consumer base and is based on research studies Metabical was expected to capture a higher penetration of this ideal niche segment Target group was found to be most interested in protecting their health and raising self-esteem The company has a clear market target and hence can price the product accordingly

Disadvantages
The chosen market is a niche market. Large number of potential users of the drug not included Margin of failure to reach targets is very small as catering to the needs of a niche market

Determining Consumer Base for 5 years using Population Growth of 1.2%

Repurchase Second Supply Percentage 60% 60% 60% 60% 60% Repurchase Second Supply Population 774000 913872 1057000 1203442 1353258 Percentage Completing entire program 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% Population Completing entire program 154800 182774 211400 240688 270652

Year

Population

Target Market Segment 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%

First Time User Population 1290000 1523120 1761667 2005737 2255429

Total Consumer Base 2218800 2619767 3030067 3449868 3879339

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

4300000 4351772 4404168 4457194 4510859

Total Consumer Base = 15,197,841