Pablo David Gonzalez M Angeles Lezcano Nuria Valdes Predictive Limnology (IWQA) 3/16/2010

1. Background information 1.1 Modeling ecosystem population 1.2 Carrying capacity constraints

1.3 The Lotka-Volterra model

2.Difference equations and the steady-state solution 3. Modeling the dynamic Deer-Wolf system

The size of a population depends on births and deaths.

Births and deaths population density n/A If the area is fixed size of the population in this fixed area. Number of births tends to increase as the population in a fixed area increases a higher population density provides more of an opportunity for mating among individuals in the population. B(t)=bP(t) b=births per capita per unit time
P=number of individuals

Deaths increase as the population increases intraspecies competition D(t)=dP(t) d=deaths per capita per unit time

Rate at which the population changes over time is proportional to the size of the population. Constant of proportionality: (b d) difference between births and deaths rates =net growth rate = b - d Exponential growth/decay function no resource limitation constrains the net growth rate

N(t) populations depends on the resources in the ecosystem for survival N(t) cannot exceed a certain size carrying capacity K

If b > d approach K

population will grow and eventually intraspecies competition death rate begins to increase towards a value equal to the birth rate moves to zero when it reaches zero, b = d, the population levels off at the carrying capacity

Now, lets suppose that birth rate remains constant and death rate is a function of population and carrying capacity: b=r Logistic growth

Elaborated by Alfred J. Lotka (1925) and Vittora Volterra (1926). Based on the predator-prey relationship. There are some previous conditions: fixed area ecosystem so population size depends on the population density (it means that growth is density dependent) The only predators food supply is the population of prey that exists in the ecosystem predators are monophagus. There is no immigration or emigration of predator or prey species into or out of this ecosystem. There is a carrying capacity of the ecosystem.

Cases If there is no predator population, prey population would behave according to the logistic behaviour pattern because it is density dependent: as soon as prey population increases, net growth rate decreases as there is intraspecies competition.

The system regulates itself toward a stable size near the carrying capacity of the ecosystem.

Cases

If we add a predator population, the net growth rate of preys (N) decreases. It means that the higher the predators, the less the net growth rate of preys. So, population of predators is related to the death rate of the prey population.
Dd= death rate of prey due to the predatory wolves.

If we add preys to the model, the net growth rate of predator (P) increases. It means that, the higher the number of preys, the higher the net growth rate of predators. So, population of predator depends on population of preys.
Wb = inflow to the wolf population which relates prey population and birth rate of wolves.

Once we have added wolves to the model, we have to take into account two things:
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Efficiency of predators to catch and kill prey. c Efficiency of predators to translate prey kills into new predator individuals.

So:
Wd = decline of natural wolf population

We want to predict whether a perturbation to the model will result in stability or instability

Prey population

Predator population

The rate of change of the stock variable is not 0 and it is a densitydependent term

In steady-satate conditions the rate of change of the stock variable equals zero To simplify the model we remove the densitydepent variable infinite carrying capacity
All death

If we increase r (more fecundity of deer population) wolves population will increase Reason: wolf population increase to consume additional deer that are born.
If we increase Wd (death rate of wolves) deer population will increase Reason: Because there are more deers, production of wolves will increase taking place of those that die

Lotka-Volterra phase space diagram

Predator isocline

A
Predator population

Prey isocline

Prey population