BUSINESS B8

Emerging Trends and Technologies

Learning Outcomes
1. Identify the trends that will have the greatest

impact on future business

2. Identify the technologies that will have the

greatest impact on future business

3. Explain why understanding trends and new

technologies can help an organization prepare for the future

Introduction
Obtaining a broad view of emerging trends

and new technologies as they relate to business can help an organization anticipate and prepare for the future
Organizations that can most effectively grasp

the deep currents of technological evolution can use their knowledge to protect themselves against sudden and fatal technological obsolescence
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Trends
Trend analysis the examination of a trend to identify its

nature, causes, speed of development, and potential impacts Trend monitoring trends viewed as particularly important in a specific community, industry, or sector are carefully monitored, watched, and reported to key decision makers Trend projection when numerical data is available a trend can be plotted on graph paper to display changes through time and into the future Computer simulation complex systems can be modeled by means of mathematical equations and different scenarios can be run against the model to determine what if analysis Historical analysis the study of historical events in order to anticipate the outcome of current developments

Top reasons organizations should study trends

Trends Shaping Our Future

Worlds population will double in the next 40 years

Population in developed countries is living longer

Growth in information industries creates a

knowledge-dependent global society

The global economy is becoming more integrated
The economy and society are dominated by

technology
Pace of technological innovation is increasing Time is becoming one of the most precious

commodities
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The worlds population will double over the next 40 years

Potential business impact: Global agriculture will be required to supply as much food as has been produced during all of human history to meet needs over the next 40 years Developed nations will find that retirees will have to remain on the job to remain competitive Developed nations will begin to increase immigration limits7

Population in developed countries is living longer

Potential business impact: Global demand for elderly products and services will grow quickly in the coming decades The cost of health care is destined to skyrocket Pharmaceutical companies will be pushed for advances in geriatric medicine

The growth in information industries is creating a knowledge-dependent global society

83% of American management personnel will be knowledge

workers by 2005 A typical large organization in 2010 will have fewer than half the management levels of its counterpart in 1990, and about 1/3 the number of managers Potential business impact: Top managers must be computer-literate to retain their jobs and achieve success Knowledge workers are generally higher paid and their proliferation is increasing overall prosperity Entry-level and unskilled positions are requiring a growing level of education Information now flows from front-office workers to higher management for analysis Downsizing, restructuring, reorganization, outsourcing, and layoffs will continue
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The global economy is becoming more integrated

International outsourcing is on the rise The European Union has relaxed its borders and capital

controls Internet users numbered about 500 million worldwide in 2003, Internet users are growing by 6% monthly

Potential business impact: Demand for personnel in distant countries will increase the need for foreign language training and employee incentives suited to other cultures E-business and the Internet will reduce the cost of doing business The Internet will allow small companies to compete with worldwide giants with relatively little investment
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The economy and society are dominated by technology

Computers are becoming a part of our environment By 2007, artificial intelligence and expert systems will help

most companies and government agencies assimilate data and solve problems beyond the range of todays computers Personal robots will appear in the home by 2010

Potential business impact: New technologies provide dozens of new opportunities to create businesses and jobs Automation will continue to decrease the cost of products and services, making it possible to reduce prices while improving profits Demand for scientists, engineers, and technicians will continue to grow
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Pace of technological innovation is increasing

Medical knowledge is doubling every eight years

50% of what students learn in their freshman year of

college is obsolete, revised, or taken for granted by their senior year All of todays technical knowledge will represent only 1 percent of the knowledge that will be available in 2050 Potential business impact: Shortened time-to-market for products and services Tighter competition based on new technologies
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Time is becoming one of the worlds most precious commodities

U.S. workers spend 10% more time on the job than they

did a decade ago European executives and nonunionized workers face the same trend This high-pressured environment is increasing the need for any product or service that saves time or simplifies life
Potential business impact: Companies must take an active role in helping their employees balance their work and lives Stress-related problems affecting employee morale and wellness will continue to grow Use of the Internet will continue to grow as the time to perform activities, such as shopping at a mall, evaporates
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The following technologies have the potential to change our future

Digital ink

Digital paper
Radio frequency identification (RFID) Teleliving Alternative energy sources Autonomic computing

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Digital Ink (or Electronic Ink)

refers to technology that digitally represents handwriting in its natural form Digital ink can be used in many applications: Point-of-sale signs Next generation displays in mobile devices and PDAs Thin, portable electronic books and newspapers RadioPaper dynamic high-resolution electronic display that combines a paperlike reading experience with the ability to access information anytime, anywhere

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Digital Paper (or Electronic Paper)

any paper that is optimized for any type of digital printing The major difference between paper produced from a tree and paper produced in a laboratory is that information on a digital paper sheet can be altered thousands of times and not degrade over time Potential business impact: Paperlike displays will replace newspapers, magazines, and books Reusable paper is an environmentally sound idea
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Digital Paper

Digital ink and digital paper past, present, and future

Radio frequency identification (RFID)

RFID uses active or passive tags in the form of chips or smart

labels that can store unique identifiers and relay this information to electronic readers RFID systems are automated, reducing the need for manual scanning, such as required with a bar code Potential business impact: Reduces the labor required to monitor goods movement and inventory flow through a supply chain Allows manufacturers and retailers to complement existing systems while gathering more information Provides complete supply chain visibility without the prohibitive labor costs and error rates associated with a manual system RFID helps enforce security by conducting automatic inventory counts
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Comparison of bar code labeling to RFID

Closing Case One: Mail with PostalOne

United States Postal Services (USPS) productivity has grown by only 11 percent over the past three decades USPS is pursuing several e-business projects to help increase growth including: NetPost Mailing Online Post Electronic Courier Service NetPost.Certified EBillPay Do you think the USPSs steps are far-reaching enough to ensure its relevance in e-business? What other strategic alliances, akin to its partnership with CheckFree, can the Postal Service develop to stay competitive? Why would the USPS compete in a market that private companies already serve well?
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1. 2.

3.

Teleliving
Teleliving refers to using information devices and the Internet

to conduct all aspects of life seamlessly Includes shopping, working, learning, playing, healing, and even praying Each year, four billion chips are embedded in everything from coffee makers to Cadillacs

Potential business impact In the future, people will move through a constant stream of information summoned at the touch of a finger Virtual assistant (VA) a small program stored on a PC or portable device that monitors e-mails, faxes, messages, and phone calls. VAs will mimic real assistants helping individuals solve problems Robotic salespeople will take on human appearances and perform all tasks associated with a sales job
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Alternative Energy Sources

Wind, geothermal, hydroelectric, solar, and other

alternative energy sources will account for 30 percent of all energy use By 2010 nuclear plants will supply 16% of Russia and eastern Europes energy
Potential business impact: China, India, South America, and Russia are modernizing their economies, which increases their needs for energy Cost of alternative energy sources is decreasing Deregulation of the energy industry is expected to increase innovation and foster a wide variety of new energy sources Oil will remain the worlds most important energy source

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Autonomic Computing
Autonomic computing a self-managing computing

model named after, and patterned on, the human bodys autonomic nervous system
Potential business impact: Autonomic computing will be used in complex IT infrastructures for security, storage, network management, and redundancy/failover Computers will monitor components and fine-tune workflows Autonomic computers will be able to self-heal Autonomic computers will be able to self-protect
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Autonomic Computing