The Alpine Fault Earthquake:

Natural Event and Human Consequences

Tim Davies Canterbury University

Mauri McSaveney GNS Science

Outline
Whats new?
The next Great Alpine Fault Earthquake Why Where When How big Associated seismicity Consequences (immediate and delayed) In the landscape In society Mitigation Now Later
University of Canterbury GNS Science

Whats new?
1. The Christchurch earthquakes what do they tell us?
2. Probabilities dont help much 3. New Alpine fault information

University of Canterbury

GNS Science

What does the Christchurch experience tell us?

1. Bad stuff DOES happen the Alpine fault WILL rupture, so will the Wellington fault 2. The Chch earthquakes were small we are VERY vulnerable. The Alpine fault will be ~ 60 x more energetic 3. Most big earthquakes occur on previously unknown faults but the Alpine and Wellington faults will be exceptions 4. Liquefaction and site effects are a VERY big deal 5. Recovery/rebuilding takes much longer than expected

University of Canterbury

GNS Science

Probabilities are based on past data and dont help much; earthquakes are UNPREDICTABLE in time and magnitude So what should we plan for? * What we know CAN happen * At ANY time Chch was much worse than the previous worst-case scenario for the city So was the recent Chile earthquake: the maximum credible magnitude was 8.4, the event was 8.8 250% more powerful. The Japan earthquake of 11 March was M = 9.0; the expected magnitude was 8.5 Things may be worse than we think...
University of Canterbury GNS Science

New Alpine fault information: depth of seismic rupture ~ 13-18 km, not 7-13 km as previously thought (Beavan et al., 2010). This means the energy released is greater than previously thought; may be Mw 8.2 instead of 8... However: it appears likely that the rupture will not initiate in the south and propagate northwards good news?

University of Canterbury

GNS Science

Our place on the planets scheme of things

Earth has a mobile surface divided into tectonic plates The New Zealand continent is on one of the plate boundaries

The Alpine fault connects two subduction margins where ocean floor descends into the Earths mantle
University of Canterbury GNS Science

The next Great Alpine Fault Earthquake

Synthetic isoseismals (MM intensity) for a MW 8 earthquake in South Westland (Smith 2002)

IX
VIII X VII
Town HEP

?
University of Canterbury

VI

Alpine pass
GNS Science

MM 1: Imperceptible MM 2: Scarcely felt MM 3: Weak MM 4: Largely observed MM 5: Strong MM 6: Slightly damaging MM 7: Damaging General alarm. People experience difficulty standing. Furniture and appliances are shifted. Substantial damage to fragile or unsecured objects. A few weak buildings are damaged. MM 8: Heavily damaging Alarm may approach panic. A few buildings are damaged and some weak buildings are destroyed. MM 9: Destructive Some buildings are damaged and many weak buildings are destroyed. MM 10: Very destructive Many buildings are damaged and most weak buildings are destroyed. MM 11: Devastating Most buildings are damaged and many buildings are destroyed. MM 12: Completely devastating All buildings are damaged and most buildings are destroyed.

The Modified Mercalli (MM) scale

University of Canterbury

GNS Science

Effects east of the Alps Long-duration (3 4 minutes) low-frequency ~ 1 Hz) shaking at MM VII - IX Closure of alpine passes Landslides into lakes - tsunami

Landslides into rivers landslide dams; dambreak floods; river sedimentation

Lots of small landslides on hillslopes

GNS Science

When?

0.20%

0.15% 0.10% 0.05% 0.00% 0 500 1000 1500 2000

We are about here The further we look into the future, the less likely it becomes! Why? Because it is most likely to occur now!
Rupture interval (years)

University of Canterbury

Probablity

GNS Science

But it doesnt have to!

Probabilities dont tell us when, they just tell us how surprised we should be WHEN (not if) it happens About half of the time it may go more than 400 years between ruptures
But the longer it goes without, the bigger it gets, and the worse are its consequences

University of Canterbury

GNS Science

The Next Great Alpine Fault Earthquake

Up to 400 km rupture length (Haast Ahaura) Up to 8-m horizontal and 4-m vertical displacement of trace MW ~ 8+, so a Great Earthquake not just strong Duration minutes not seconds Shaking intensity up to MM XII. We will all feel it, even in Sydney

Probability ~1% p.a, 15-20% in next 20 years, ~50% in the next 100 years
Damaging aftershocks up to M = 7+ for many months.
University of Canterbury GNS Science

The Next Great Alpine Fault Earthquake

Is due to occur Is more likely today than tomorrow Might not occur for 150 years The longer the delay, the bigger it will be Will occur with no recognisable warning Will have disastrous consequences across many regions Will cause a sudden-onset national emergency of long duration

University of Canterbury

GNS Science

The Next Great Alpine Fault Earthquake

Will alter tectonic stress distribution

Other faults may rupture in days to decades, or rupture on another fault may trigger it
May rupture along part of its length, with lower magnitude; but followed shortly by rupture of rest Two large earthquakes is a realistic scenario

Anticipate a series of large earthquakes

There will be large aftershocks anyway
University of Canterbury GNS Science

Geomorphic consequences
Immediate ground accelerations ~1g near fault, decreasing with distance, but amplified on ridges and peaks Less intense shaking in aftershocks (days months - years) Much ground damage and liquefaction

Countless landslides - all sizes up to many tens of millions of cubic metres from slopes in the MM IX areas
Landslide dams with breakout floods and aggradation comparable to and exceeding that following 1999 Mt Adams landslide High sediment inputs to all rivers lasting for > months.

University of Canterbury

GNS Science

There will be many landslides in the mountains

The landslide from Mount Adams that blocked the Poerua River in 1999 is a small taste of what is to come.
The effects downstream will continue for years

University of Canterbury

GNS Science

Pourua Valley 2002

River aggradation

Poerua Valley 1988

University of Canterbury

GNS Science

Geomorphic consequences
Landslides in aftershocks for months

More landslide dams, more flash floods, more sediment input, more aggradation, more river avulsion and sedimentation
Debris flows in many small steep catchments in heavy rain (1 day 1 year) A West Coast tsunami - Okarito? Hokitika? Greymouth? Westport? Milford Sound? Doubtful Sound? Australia? Landslide tsunami - Wakatipu? Wanaka? Hawea? Te Anau? Manapouri? Tekapo? Milford Sound? Doubtful Sound? Moana? Kaniere? Tsunami from delta collapse - Godley? Tasman? Rees/Dart? Cleddau? Matukituki? Makarora?
University of Canterbury GNS Science

Geomorphic consequences
Tsunami Rock avalanche Dambreak flood Severe sedimentation

University of Canterbury

GNS Science

Societal consequences - immediate

No bridge design performs well in fault rupture

University of Canterbury GNS Science

University of Canterbury

GNS Science

University of Canterbury

GNS Science

University of Canterbury

GNS Science

Societal consequences - immediate

Transalpine surface routes impassable (weeks) Many mountain roads impassable Immediate shutdown of all South Island power generation and widespread disruption of reticulation

Widespread damage in the MM > VIII and tsunami zones

Uncontrollable fires Widespread disabling injuries; medical services overwhelmed; some deaths
University of Canterbury GNS Science

Societal consequences - immediate

Land- and cell-phones out in many areas

Overseas rescue and medical assistance needed

Severe disruption of all services (water, sewerage, energy, communication, transport, health, social) (weeks)

People trapped on roads/tracks or in accommodation: need to be looked after where they are (days - weeks)
Dairy herds unable to be milked; no milk transport/processing

Cessation of most commercial activity in many parts of South Island (days - months)
Many local economies maintained solely by recovery (weeks years)

University of Canterbury

GNS Science

Some land transportation routes will be cut

SH6 crosses the Alpine fault many times, and some bridges are sited on it
Lewis, Arthurs, and Haast Pass routes will be cut in many places, mostly by landslides and spreading of road fill

University of Canterbury

GNS Science

Not even an earthquake: Manawatu, Sept 2011

With concentrated resources, susceptable major highways can still be out for more than a month with multiple blockages
University of Canterbury GNS Science

Societal consequences longer term

Continued disruption of transport and services by aftershocks, slope failures, river aggradation and flooding (months-years) Poor communication, access and lack of fuel hamper recovery and redevelopment Emergency-management capabilities overwhelmed at all levels Continued overseas assistance needed in recovery (aid, trades people) Continued lack of access and fuel on West Coast requires assistance from the west (ships and aircraft)

University of Canterbury

GNS Science

Mitigation: What can be done now? National , Regional , Community, Family

FIND OUT ABOUT THE EVENT Develop scenarios (worst-case is a useful exercise) Share your scenarios with other groups. Share theirs Plan what you will do. Encourage others to do likewise Find out what your community expects of you and tell them what to (not) expect from you
University of Canterbury GNS Science

 Increase awareness of the event among schools, local population, businesses, tour operators, tourists,

Dont just talk about it. Do things.

E.g. All tour buses could carry locators, food, drink, blankets, medical supplies (to last several days). There will be many buses, many may be on the road, their passengers can not all be evacuated in a day (week?). E.g. Tie down helicopters on the ground Identify highest-risk locations and gradually strengthen, or redevelop to safer areas

University of Canterbury

GNS Science

 Store all essential supplies (fuel, food, spares, radios, generators, heavy machinery, medical supplies etc) in safe secure locations

Store Bailey bridges by essential river crossings

Inventory machinery, helicopters, drivers, mechanics, tourists, etc etc and maintain electronically and as hard copy available to event controllers

University of Canterbury

GNS Science

This earthquake is a perfectly normal part of New Zealands evolution.

Learning to adapt to it is a necessity for sustainable communities.

It is only one event of many, and many types, that will occur in NZs future.

Learning to adapt to ALL of them is a necessity for a sustainable New Zealand

University of Canterbury GNS Science

Electricity reticulation....
... will be crucial following the Alpine fault earthquake. SI generation will shut down power will need to be reticulated from NI. Will the lines be damaged? Tower foundation stability/security? Structural integrity of towers in long-duration lowfrequency shaking (including forces transmitted by lines)? Lines shorting by swinging? Where is reticulation controlled from?

University of Canterbury

GNS Science

Contact: GNS Science P.O. Box 30368 Lower Hutt University of Canterbury Private Bag 4800 Christchurch

m.mcsaveney@gns.cri.nz www.gns.cri.nz

tim.davies@canterbury.ac.nz www.canterbury.ac.nz
University of Canterbury GNS Science