Technology forecasting and planning

Draft the technology roadmap & Invest strategically

Scanning before forecasting & planning

Strategic technology planning

Forecasting technology Analyze and diagnose the environment Analyze and predict the market and customer trend and change of trend Analyze the internal organization Sketch the vision & mission Re-design the organizational structure and activity Execute the plan through operations

Output of planning

A process of top-down & bottom-up dialogue

Decision alternativescourses of action Proposed schemakey entities & relations Budgeting for R&D, marketing & production Distribution criteria for appropriate proportions

Long-term: basic research for breakthrough, applied research based on a specific purpose, pioneering or experimental design & development of 1st stage R&D Short-term: 2nd R&D on the fabrication, 3rd stage on the commercial design, module manufacturing

S-curved technology evolution

Future trends

Performance current

time

Continuity/Discontinuity of technology
S2 Performance

S1

t1

t2

t3

The key attributes in technology forecasting

Performance growth

Complexity, efficiency, capacity, size, accuracy, compactness

Substitution possibility & speed, paradigm shift or trajectory evolution Penetration share Diffusion rate

Allergy, deviation, enforcement, self-reinforcement

Value cluster

Breakthrough possibility & timing

Critical technologies

Categories

User dimensions

Material Advanced manufacturing Information & communication Biotech & living science Aerospace & transportation Energy & environmental ecology
National critical technologieslong-term basic research Business/commercial emerging technologies DODs Defense critical technologyspecific purposes and outer-space exploration

Technology forecasting methods

Surveillance

Scan the environment and link to the source of innovation for quick adjustment & adoption
Use the Delphi method to converge the common focus/foci Trace the time-series data and identify the evolutionary pattern and the driving forces Articulate a forecasting function composed several critical influencers Preview possible events and evolution patterns

Expert opinions

Trend analysis

Modeling

Scenario analysis

Japan technology forecasts based on the Delphi method

Japan technology forecasts for core technologies

Technology road map

Time horizontal evolution Technological relatedness Application extension

e.g., Technology road map of mobile standard evolution

cdmaOne IS-95A
GSM HSCSD PDC PDC-P PHS IS-95B

CDMA2000 1x IS-95C
GPRS

CDMA2000 1x EV DO
EDGE

CDMA2000 1x EV DV

WCDMA

2G

2.5G

3G

e.g., Technology road map of telecom services

Wi-Max VOIP

ADSL Cable modem

WLAN

VOIP

DIY 2G

3G

1G

Technology landscape

Scanning the important technology entities Matter Energy Information

magents enhance the asorbability of tiny molecule magents enhance plastic deformation e.g., mega magents facilitate the refrigeration e.g., mega magents e.g., mega magents accelerate the trace micro magnetic friction-less particle sensitively transmission e.g., mega magents promote the efficiency of micromotor e.g., mega magents facilitate the change of electricity/ microwave into voice

Mobility/Input e.g., mega

transformation e.g., mega

Storage/ output

e.g., mega magents e.g., mega magents possess energy support MO disk for durably large volume of data

Technology audit model

1.

2.
3. 4. 5. 6.

Technology environment Technology classification Analyze the market and customer Evaluate the innovation process Analyze the value-added activity Analyze the technology pool & technology acquisition

Technology environment
1.

2. 3. 4.

5.

Leadership for technology championship & pioneering research Phase with the business strategy Organizational level Culture of learning, communication and innovation Staffing system for innovation incentive

Technology classification
1.

Product/process technology
Internal/external source, base/core, changes

2.

Back-office technology
Internal/external technologies of administration, supporting, and logistics

3.

Marketing technology
Marketing systems Integrative communication of product & service

Analyze the market and customer

1.

Market requirement
Assess the market growth/capacity/segments Evaluate the marketing performance

2.

Competitor position
Strength/weakness comparison Benchmarking

Evaluate the innovation process

1.

Idea formation
Intrepreneurship Entrepreneurship

2.

Technology generation
Technology pushtechnology inspiration Market pullmarket insight

3.

Idea fulfillment
Time to market, break-even point

Analyze the value-added activity

1.

R&D
Team management, investment portfolio, risk management, experience effect, synergy effect

2.

Operation
Production/marketing enhancement

3.

Environmentalism
Investigate users behavior of product disposal Green product & continuous business concept

Analyze the technology pool & technology acquisition

1.

Acquisition methods and performance

Internal development External reciprocate collaboration in research/production/marketing Investment in the stick share

2.

Technology transfer

3.

Profit exploitation

Transfer procedures Internal/external staff rotation Explicit/implicit dimension of know-how Sunk cost analysis Technology archive

4.

Technology protection
Assess the IPR regime

Planning according to TLC

Performance
emerging growing mature

current

decline time

Integration of business strategy & technology strategy

Business segment & position Strategy audit Technology segment & position Reviewing Technology environment Impacted technology Reviewing Business environment

Impacted business Strategic alternative formation

Strategic control

Strategy execution

Strategic choice & resource deployment

B-tech approach

The role of CTO

Forecast technology and analyze the business goals Develop the corporate technology capability Maintain the sustainable profit and creativity of technology portfolio Develop informal and formal alliance network of

technology

Execute technology auditing Technology transfer and protection As a technology gatekeeper for anti-leakage of technology and proactive acquisition

ASSETS structured thinking about technology

Assess current situation

gap analysis
Expected future

Specify technology strategy

Select technology portfolio

Prioritize the candidates

Establish the task force Configuration for profit Evaluation and learning for capability

Execute technology investments

Transfer results for deployment

Secure long-term position

Extended readings

Van Wyk, Rias J. (1997), Strategic Technology Scanning, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 55, pp.21-38. Van Wyk, Rias J., G. Haour, and S. G. Japp (1991), Permanent Magnets: A Technological Analysis, R&D Management, Vol.21, No. 4, pp.301-308. Mahajan, Vijay and Robert A. Peterson (1985), Models for Innovation Diffusion, Quantitative Applications in the Social Sciences, Sage University Press.