Urban Arterial Road

Travel Time Variability

Modelling
Susilawati, PhD
Research Presentation, February 14
th
2014
Outline
Travel time variability
Travel time distribution
Travel time variability modelling
Discussion
Day to day variation on
Journey to Work travel times

Day to day variation in JTW travel times
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
40.00
45.00
50.00
2
8
/
0
2
/
2
0
0
7
2
8
/
0
3
/
2
0
0
7
2
8
/
0
4
/
2
0
0
7
2
8
/
0
5
/
2
0
0
7
2
8
/
0
6
/
2
0
0
7
2
8
/
0
7
/
2
0
0
7
2
8
/
0
8
/
2
0
0
7
2
8
/
0
9
/
2
0
0
7
2
8
/
1
0
/
2
0
0
7
2
8
/
1
1
/
2
0
0
7
2
8
/
1
2
/
2
0
0
7
2
8
/
0
1
/
2
0
0
8
2
8
/
0
2
/
2
0
0
8
T
r
a
v
e
l

t
i
m
e

(
m
i
n
)
t
incident
incident
incident
Travel time variability
Use the 95th percentile (t
95
) of the travel time
distribution as the travel time reliability
metrics
Utilise normal distribution properties; and as
the parameters to measure travel time reliability
Travel time variability
Travel time distribution
Need for best fit travel time distribution
Empirical travel time data are likely to have long tail and
positive skew
in some cases shows bimodality and multimodality







The Burr distribution Proposed Travel time distribution

The Travel time distribution
Normal, Log normal, Weibull, Gamma & Beta
distribution
The modelling technique
Multiple regression technique
Linear and power function
The influence factors
Free flow travel time
Volume Capacity ratio
Link length
Delay congestion index

Travel time variability modelling
Travel time variability modelling cont.
Multiple linear regressions
the most commonly used technique
e.g. Herman and Lam in Detroit, Richardson and Taylor in Melbourne Australia and
Polus in Michigan
Eliasson
Stockholm bypass road by utilising travel time data collected thorough an
automatic camera system



t=actual travel time
t
0
= free flow travel time
L = link length

TOD
and
speed
are dummy variables representing time of day and the speed
limit,
is a constant, and , and e are estimated parameters
Peer et al (2009)
15 minute interval travel time was derived from speed data collected by
loop detector


VCR = flow capacity ratio
L=link length
=estimated parameter

Black and Chin (2007)
GPS data from individual vehicles at 34 routes in ten of the largest urban
areas in England








Travel time variability modelling cont.

pdf

cdf

r
th
moment
will only exist if ck > r
Modal
will only exist if c > 1.
[If c s 1, then the distribution is L-
shaped.]
Percentile
) 1 ( 1
) 1 ( ) , , (
+
+ =
k c c
x ckx k c x f
k c
x k c x F

+ = ) 1 ( 1 ) , , (
) 1 (
) 1 ( ) (
) (
+ I
+ I I
=
'
=
k
c
r
c
r
k k
x E
r
r

c
m
ck
c
x
/ 1
1
1
(

=
c
k
P
P x 1 ) 1 (
/ 1
=

Burr distribution
Wide range of possible shapes useful for fitting and approximating
many types of data
Has algebraic tail useful in modelling less frequent failures
Closed form its percentiles are easily computed

Burr distribution
10 90
50 90
t t
t t
skew

=
50
50 90
var
t
t t
=
c
k
P
P x 1 ) 1 (
/ 1
=

c k
x 1 2
/ 1
50
=
c k
x 1 10
/ 1
90
=
c k
c k c k
1 2
1 2 1 10
/ 1
/ 1 / 1
var

=
k c
x P

+ = ) 1 ( 1
c
k
x 1
9
10
/ 1
10

|
.
|

\
|
=
Travel Time Variability Metric
Study area
Selected links from the Glen Osmond
Road (GOR link 1 and 6) and South
Road (SR link 18, 20 and 22) were
selected as study area.
Longitudinal journey to work travel
time using GPS-equipped probe
vehicles were analysed.
Glen Osmond Road:
link lengths vary from 152m to
1146m
posted speed limits of either 50km/h
or 60km/h
consist of 180 runs
South Road corridor
comprising 22 links
Link lengths vary from 135m to
4007m
posted speed limits between
60km/h and 80km/h
consist of 100 runs


.

Burr regression
The shape parameter (c) is allowed to vary with y where y is
covariate (dimensional vector)(Beirlant et al, 1998)

) 1 ( 1
) 1 ( ) , , (
+
+ =
k c c
x ckx k c x f
k=shape parameter
c=shape parameter
x= travel time
y = Degree of saturation
SCATS
SCATS system generates control parameters:
Maximum flow;
Headway at the maximum flow
Occupancy time at maximum flow
Degree of saturation

DS the ratio of effectively used green time to
the total available green time
GOR 1
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
0
.
0
0
0
0
.
0
0
5
0
.
0
1
0
0
.
0
1
5
travel time
d
e
n
s
i
t
y
Empirical Travel Time
Burr regression DS=0.8
Burr regression DS=0.9
Burr regression DS=1
Burr regression DS=1.1
GOR 6
0 20 40 60 80 100
0
.
0
0
0
.
0
2
0
.
0
4
0
.
0
6
0
.
0
8
travel time
d
e
n
s
i
t
y
Empirical Travel Time
Burr regression DS=0.8
Burr regression DS=0.9
Burr regression DS=1
Burr regression DS=1.1
SR 22
0 200 400 600 800
0
.
0
0
0
0
.
0
0
1
0
.
0
0
2
0
.
0
0
3
0
.
0
0
4
travel time
d
e
n
s
i
t
y
Empirical Travel Time
Burr regression DS=0.8
Burr regression DS=0.9
Burr regression DS=1
Burr regression DS=1.1
Link No
Burr Parameter for Empirical Data Percentile

Var

c k scale 10
th
50
th
90
th

1 GOR 8.9 0.5 100.9 85.1 113 165 0.7
6 GOR 63.7 0 28.4 21.3 26 44.4 0.9
Link No
Burr Parameter for Estimated Data Percentile
Var

DS c k scale 10
th
50
th
90
th

1 GOR 1.9 0.6 3.1 1 120.1 59.3 119.1 237.7 1.5
0.7 3.8 67.1 119.2 211.1 1.2
0.8 4.6 74.2 119.4 191.4 1
0.9 5.6 80.7 119.5 176.5 0.8
1 6.7 86.5 119.6 165.1 0.7
1.1 8.2 91.5 119.7 156.2 0.5
6 GOR 3.1 0.6 6.5 1 37.8 20.2 34.9 114.1 2.7
0.7 8.8 20.5 30.3 71.2 1.7
0.8 12 20.6 27.4 50.7 1.1
0.9 16.4 20.8 25.5 39.7 0.7
1 22.4 20.9 24.2 33.3 0.5
1.1 30.6 20.9 23.3 29.3 0.4
1.2 41.8 21 22.6 26.7 0.3
Link No
Burr Parameter for Empirical Data Percentile

Var

c k scale 10
th
50
th
90
th

18 SR 3 2 317.2 119.2 235.1 407.6 1.2
20 SR 3.4 4.8 200.6 64.6 115.3 173.7 0.9
22 SR 5.4 0.7 261.4 186.5 286.5 470.3 1
Link No
Burr Parameter for Estimated Data Percentile
Var

DS c k scale 10
th
50
th
90
th

18 SR
1.2 0.6 2.1 3.7 420.4 78.8 199.9 394.2 1.6
0.7 2.4 95.9 218.1 397.2 1.4
0.8 2.7 114 235.5 399.9 1.2
0.9 3.1 132.9 252.1 402.2 1.1
1 3.5 152.1 267.6 404.3 0.9
1.1 3.9 171.3 282.2 406.2 0.8
20 SR
1.3 0.6 2.2 5.4 213.8 34.7 85.2 159.5 1.5
0.7 2.5 43.2 95.1 165.2 1.3
0.8 2.8 52.4 104.9 170.4 1.1
0.9 3.2 62.1 114.3 175.1 1
1 3.6 72.1 123.3 179.4 0.9
1.1 4.1 82.2 131.7 183.2 0.8
22 SR
1.4 0.6 2.3 1.3 331.8 114.9 288 669 1.9
0.7 2.7 132 293.4 610.5 1.6
0.8 3.1 148.8 298.1 563.8 1.4
0.9 3.5 165.2 302.3 526.1 1.2
1 4 181 306 495.4 1
1.1 4.7 195.9 309.2 470.1 0.9
Conclusion
The value of c, k and scale parameters are close to the value of the
empirical c, k and scale parameter and the pdf functions for empirical
and estimated data have similar shape
The estimated percentiles are similar to the empirical data percentiles.
The 10th, 50th and 90th percentiles resulting from 0.6 degree of
saturation are lower than 0.9 degree of saturation.
The 10th and 50th percentiles increase as the degree of saturation
increases while the 90
th
percentile decreases .
Higher degree of saturation is likely to have less variability since the 10th
percentile is close
Conclusion
Burr regression technique allowing us to explore the role of SCATS
degree of saturation in determining the value of the Burr parameter c,
and leading to different shapes of the distribution and different values of
the travel time variability metrics. Thus it is possible to estimate the travel
time variability at varying levels of the SCATS degree of saturation
Further Research
Burr regression technique for other traffic
parameters
Cost Benefit analysis in relation to travel time
reliability modelling
Data collection method
Online data collection, incident management
GIS and GPS integration in relation to ESRI cloud
environment which called ArcGIS online for
organisation