Conference on Climate Change, Development and Official Statistics Seoul, 11-12 December 2008

Climate Change and Indicators of Sustainable Development

Matthias Bruckner Division for Sustainable Development Department of Economic and Social Affairs United Nations

Outline
1. What are indicators of sustainable
2. 3. 4.
development? Why are indicators of sustainable development useful for measuring climate change impacts and responses? Which indicators are used by countries? Where are the main challenges for developing climate change indicators of sustainable development?

UN DESA Division for Sustainable Development

Mission Statement: To provide leadership and to be an authoritative source of expertise within the United Nations system on sustainable development DSD serves as the Secretariat of the Commission on Sustainable Development (CSD) CSD:
Functional Commission of the UN Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC) Attended by non-CSD member states, UN system, NGOs and IGOs Includes high-level segment with 60-70 ministers in attendance

DSD conducts normative work, analytical work and technical cooperation

3

Sustainable Development
Sustainable development is development that meets the
needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. (Brundtland Commission) Sustainable development integrates economic development, social development and environmental protection. Sustainable development has three overarching objectives and essential requirements: Poverty reduction; Changing unsustainable patterns of production and consumption; Protecting and managing the natural resource base of economic and social development.

Indicators of Sustainable Development

Indicators of sustainable development can
have multiple functions:
Simplifying, clarifying and making aggregated information and scientific knowledge available to policy-makers Measuring progress towards sustainable development goals Identifying critical issues for sustainable development Communicating the concept of sustainable development to policy-makers and the public

Indicators of Sustainable Development

Indicators of sustainable development often

integrate economic, social and environmental statistics, e.g.

Resource efficiency indicators integrate economic and environmental statistics; Gender employment indicators integrate economic and social statistics; Air pollution indicator integrate social and environmental statistics; Indicator on sustainable resource management integrate all three dimensions, but are often not fully developed.

Indicators of Sustainable Development

Indicators of sustainable development can use

different frameworks.

Frameworks determine what to measure and why Policy-oriented frameworks Guaranteed policy relevance, flexible, buy-in form stakeholders Prone to change with change in government, sometimes Theory-based frameworks More stable across time, more commonalities across countries, less
subject to political change Need to agree on theory, validity and relevance of theories varies across time and space, less buy-in from stakeholders, policy relevance can be low Extended capital theory advocated by some (see e.g. Joint ECE/OECD/Eurostat Working Group on Statistics for Sustainable Development)

theoretically weak

Other frameworks: Indices (theory-based or theory-free), Pressure-state-response frameworks

Indicators of Sustainable Development

Many countries across the world utilize
Monitoring progress of their national sustainable development strategies; Assessing state of sustainable development.

indicators of sustainable development, especially for

UN DESA publishes a set of Indicators of

Mandated by the United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development in 1995; Third edition released in late 2007.

Sustainable Development as reference for countries to develop national indicators

Indicators of Sustainable Development

Detailed methodology sheets

for each indicator available online. Methodology sheets will be updated regularly. http://www.un.org/esa/sustd ev/natlinfo/indicators/isd.htm

Indicators of Sustainable Development

Role of official statistics in national indicator sets
Provision of high-quality data (data collection and integration) Common types and sources of data needed
National accounts Censuses Household and other surveys Administrative records Estimations based on agreed standards;

Provision of statistical methodologies and standards; In some countries, official statistics have a lead role in analysing and reporting of indicators

Benefits of indicators of sustainable development for climate change

Climate change is a sustainable development issue,

not just an environmental concern

Indicators of sustainable development can be

informative for climate change.

Climate change threatens to erase progress made in achieving sustainable development goals, including the Millennium Development Goals. Greenhouse gas emissions depend on economic and technological pathways. Current emissions impact on the living conditions of future generations. Poor and vulnerable countries are expected to face the greatest burden of climate change, while having contributed the least to the problem.

Benefits of indicators of sustainable development for climate change

Existing sustainable development indicator sets are a useful point of departure for the derivation of climate change indicators. Recognizes the important linkages between climate change and other sustainable development issues, e.g. Reducing emissions from combustion of (imported) fossil fuels can increase energy security. Improved disaster risk management helps to address not only climate related events (droughts, floods,), but also non-climate related ones (earthquakes, volcanoes) Preserving forests to maintain natural capital and to sustain livelihoods also increases carbon absorption.

Benefits of indicators of sustainable development for climate change

Linking climate change indicators to sustainable development
indicators increases coherence among indicator sets. This avoids risk of sending mixed messages. Coherence can further be increased by incorporating existing issue-specific sets of sustainable development indicators, for example Energy Indicators of Sustainable Development Biodiversity Indicators. Disaggregating general indicators of sustainable development may make them climate change relevant. It also helps to avoid duplication of efforts. It may reduce reporting burden for agencies.

Benefits of indicators of sustainable development for climate change

While using national sets of indicators of sustainable
development as basis for climate change indicators, other processes should be integrated International processes under the UNFCCC Negotiations related to measurable, reportable and verifiable

commitments and actions on mitigation, financing, technology and capacity-building Performance indicators on technology transfer Reduced emissions form deforestation and forest degradation

National climate strategies and action plans Progress on System of Environmental-Economic Accounting Climate change-related work on CSD indicators
Meeting held in New York in October 2008, see
http://www.un.org/esa/sustdev/natlinfo/indicators/15Oct_2008/egm.htm

Indicators used at the national level

Many indicators used by countries to monitor their national sustainable development strategies (NSDS) relate to climate change. There are different possibilities to determine which indicators of sustainable development are climate change related.
Indicators on issues that the strategy explicitly identify as being linked to climate change (Revealed preference). Indicators on issues that other countries identified as climate change relevant in their strategies. Indicators on issues that experts identified as climate change related, for example in the IPCC reports. Climate change and development are not fundamentally new issues.

Following examples are based on an on-going study by UN DESA

The study uses indicator sets of 9 countries Number of indicators varies across countries, so number of indicator sis no indication of emphasis on climate change in NSDS

Indicators used at the national level

Australia Climate change mitigation
Indicator Renewable energy use as a proportion of total Total renewable and non-renewable energy use Total net greenhouse gas emissions Total area of all forest type Policy issue in NSDS Energy Energy Climate change Forests Air quality Air quality Type of reference Own NSDS Own NSDS Own NSDS Other NSDS

Number of occasions where concentrations of pollutants exceeded NEPM standards for ambient air Expert quality in major urban areas Total SOx, NOx and particulate emissions Expert

Indicators used at the national level

Australia Climate change adaptation
Indicator
Number of extinct, endangered and vulnerable species Number of endangered ecological communities Real GDP per capita Surface water units within 70% of sustainable yield Ground water management units within 70% of sustainable yield Policy issue in NSDS Biodiversity Biodiversity Industrial performance Water management Water Management Type of reference Other NSDS Other NSDS Other NSDS Other NSDS Other NSDS

Indicators used at the national level

India Climate change mitigation
Indicator
GHG emissions per capita Energy intensity per unit of GDP Forest and tree cover Air quality in major issues Policy issue in NSDS Environment and climate change Environment and climate change Environment and climate change Environment and climate change Type of reference Own NSDS Own NSDS Own NSDS Expert

Indicators used at the national level

India Climate change adaptation
Indicator
Average GDP growth Agricultural GDP growth rate Policy issue in NSDS Income and poverty Income and poverty Type of reference Own NSDS Own NSDS

Indicators used at the national level

Republic of Korea Climate change mitigation I
Policy issue in NSDS Climate change Climate change Climate change Forests Forests Waste Waste

Indicator
Emissions of GHGs Emissions of GHGs per person Emissions of GHGs per GDP Forest area as a percent of land Wood harvesting intensity

Type of reference Own NSDS Own NSDS Own NSDS Own NSDS Own NSDS

Generation of industrial and municipal solid Own NSDS waste Waste recycling and reuse Own NSDS

Indicators used at the national level

Republic of Korea Climate change mitigation II
Policy issue in NSDS Energy use Energy use Energy use Material use Indicator Annual energy consumption of renewable energy sources Share of consumption of renewable energy sources Energy use per GDP (TOE/1000$) Intensity of material use (per GDP 1000$) Type of reference Own NSDS Own NSDS Own NSDS Other NSDS Other NSDS

Transportation Transportation shares per modal split

Agriculture
Agriculture Ozone layer

Proportion ration of environmentally friendly agriculture

Use of fertilizer Consumption of ODS

Other NSDS
Expert Expert

Air quality

Air pollution in metropolitan areas

Expert

Indicators used at the national level

Republic of Korea Climate change adaptation
Policy issue in NSDS Disaster Economic performance Ecosystems Ecosystems Water quantity

Indicator
Human life and economic loss caused by natural disaster GDP per capita Number of species in danger of extinction Protected area in % of total area Annual withdrawal of ground and surface water

Type of reference Own NSDS Other NSDS Other NSDS Other NSDS Expert

Indicators used at the national level

United Kingdom Climate change mitigation I
Policy issue in NSDS GHG emissions GHG emissions GHG emissions Electricity generation Electricity generation

Indicator
GHG and CO2 emissions, and CO2 emissions associated with UK consumption CO2 emissions from industry, domestic (residential), transport sectors GHG emissions from UK-based international aviation and shipping fuel bunkers Renewable electricity generated as a percentage of total electricity Electricity generated, CO2, NOx and SO2 emissions by electricity generators and GDP

Type of reference Own NSDS Own NSDS Own NSDS

Own NSDS
Own NSDS

Indicators used at the national level

United Kingdom Climate change mitigation II
Policy issue in NSDS CO2 and other emissions CO2 and other emissions CO2 and other emissions CO2 and other emissions Indicator Domestic CO2 emissions, domestic energy consumption and household spending Type of reference Own NSDS

Road transport (CO2, NOx, PM10 emissions Own NSDS and Gross Domestic Product) Private car CO2 emissions, car-kilometres and household spending Own NSDS

Heavy Goods Vehicle (HGV) CO2 emissions, Own NSDS kilometres, tonnes and GDP

CO2 and other emissions

CO2 and other emissions CO2 and other emissions

Manufacturing sector CO2, NOx, SO2, PM10 emissions and output

Service sector CO2 , NOx emissions and output Public sector CO2 , NOx emissions and output

Own NSDS Own NSDS

Own NSDS

Indicators used at the national level

United Kingdom Climate change mitigation III
Policy issue in NSDS Energy supply Resource use Agriculture Land use (contextual) Mobility Waste

Indicator
UK indigenous energy production and gross inland energy consumption Domestic Material Consumption and GDP Fertiliser input, farmland bird population, ammonia and methane emissions and output Area covered by agriculture, woodland, water or river, urban

Type of reference Other NSDS Other NSDS Other NSDS Other NSDS

(a) Number of trips per person by mode (b) Distance traveled per person per year by Other NSDS broad trip purpose Waste arisings per disposal Other NSDS

Indicators used at the national level

United Kingdom Climate change adaptation
Indicator
(a) Priority species status (b) priority habitat status Bird population indices (a) farmland birds (b) woodland birds (c) coastal birds (d) wintering wetland birds Total abstractions from non-tidal surface and ground water, leakage losses and GDP Impacts of water shortages (spatial disaggregation) Number of properties in areas at risk of flooding Type of reference Other NSDS Policy issue in NSDS Biodiversity conservation

Bird populations
Water resource use Water stress Flooding

Expert
Expert Expert Expert

Indicators used at the national level

Other countries Climate change mitigation
Indicator CO2 intensity of energy consumption Increase in land use for housing and transport Intensity of passenger transport (km/GDP) Nitrogen surplus in farming Contribution of biofuels to fuel consumption Average CO2 emissions in new vehicles Agricultural land used as carbon sink Percentage of forest land covered by sustainable forest management plans Country Finland Germany Germany Germany Spain Spain Spain Uganda Policy issue in NSDS GHG emissions Land use Mobility Nutrition Clean energy Energy intensive sectors Carbon sinks Natural resource management

Indicators used at the national level

Other countries Climate change adaptation
Indicator
Population density in coastal provinces Land affected by soil erosion, salination and desertification Drought risk index Policy issue in NSDS Coastal zones Soil, vegetation and desertification Hydrological resources

Country
Morocco Morocco Spain

Indicators used at the national level

Other countries Climate change financing
Indicator
Development aid targeted at the combating of climate change and at the enhancement of health and education Policy issue in NSDS Global responsibility

Country
Finland

Climate change market instruments

Government purchase of Certified Emission Spain Reductions (CER)

Main challenges
Defining the scope of climate change indicators of
sustainable development
Indicators expressing significant linkages should probably be included. To remain focused, indicators expressing indirect linkages could be
excluded.

Additional specific climate change indicators may be useful E.g. climate indicators, CO2 intensity of fuels, CO2 emissions from
policy relevant sources such as cars

Definitions of climate change adaptation are often vague. People and economies adapt to a multiple factors, climate change
being one of them. If development is the best form of adaptation, are all development indicators climate change related?

Main challenges

Statistical classifications and methodologies for indicators in some important domains remain incomplete Land cover, land use and land degradation. Key area for both mitigation and adaptation Ecosystem services Spatial classifications for capturing spatially differentiated climate change impacts Technology transfer Lack of common definitions of climate change related technologies Technology can be transferred through many modes (trade in

goods, trade in services, inward foreign direct investment, outward foreign direct investment) Transfer can be at commercial or at preferential terms.

Main challenges
Time lag between climate change measures and
climate change impact
Measures on climate change mitigation and adaptation are in response to future climate changes. Climate change impacts are uncertain Extreme events can be devastating, but cannot be ignored (Fattailed distribution)

Demand for indicators to a large extent determined

Details of outcome currently unknown.

by outcome of current climate change negotiations.

Thank You
Contact: Matthias Bruckner Division for Sustainable Development Department of Economic and Social Affairs United Nations email: brucknerm@un.org http://www.un.org/esa/sustdev/index.html