Learning Objectives:

Understand the nature of probability Understand the role of probability in statistical testing Describe and choose the level of significance Explain the difference between type 1 + type 2 errors.

Inferential Statistics

Outcomes: ALL Complete own MEMORABLE notes using mnemonics / mindmaps on each objective. MOST Complete activities set SOME Complete Tea Test problem by end of the lesson

Key words you need definitions for: Probability Level of significance Type 1 error Type 2 error

Inferential Statistics Tests

Make inferences about the populations from which the samples are drawn

Descriptive Statistics vs. Inferential Statistics

Allows us to draw conclusions Through use of graphs Allow us to say whether difference is significant

This difference Is significant

Inferential Stats
Watch the clip the tea test. Task: Why are inferential statistical tests needed?

(Also see Pg 286)

DEFINICIN CLASICA DE PROBABILIDAD How likely is it that something will happen?

A number between 0 and 1 0 = something DEFINITELY will NOT happen 1 = something DEFINITELY will happen

NUMBER OF PARTICULAR OUTCOMES PROBABILITY = NUMBER OF POSSIBLE OUTCOMES

La probabilidad se expresa como p

Task: What is the probability of a coin landing heads up? How would you express this as a decimal?

Probability
Inferential tests use probability to ascertain the likelihood that a pattern of results could have arisen by chance. If the probability of the results occurring by chance is below a certain level we assume these results to be significant

Chance

We can state how certain we are the results are not due to chance

Real difference

Key questions for Psychologists

How far does what we have found in our sample reflect the general population? Could differences shown in our test have occurred by chance?

E.g. In a study of 10 yr old boys a positive correlation is found between time spent playing aggressive computer games and observed levels of aggression? Is this the case for all 10 yr old boys? Inferential tests will tell us how probable it is that the correlation could have occurred by chance.

Watch the clip P Values

Task: Also referring to Chance pg 286

What does a p value of p 0.05 mean? Explain this both as a % but also what it tells us about the results of the study / correlation.

P-levels/Significance Levels

C H A N C E

P 0.10 P 0.05 P 0.01 P 0.001

We can also write these as 10%, 5%, 1%, 0.1%

Significant?
If our test is significant we can Reject our null hypothesis and accept our alternative/experimental hypothesis If our test is not significant we can Accept our null hypothesis and reject our alternative/experimental hyp If P is lownull must go.

Type 1 and Type 2 Errors

Type 1 error Rejecting a null hypothesis when we should not P level too tight

Type 2 error Accepting a null hypothesis when we should not P level too loose

Errors
Throwing a coin 10 times there is a 17% probability of getting a head If we set our p level too low it looks like there is phenomena there is not Throwing a coin 100 times there is a 0.005% chance of getting a head If we set it too high we may miss phenomena

Why do we make errors?

Type 1 if we allow ourselves a p=.05 sig level then we allow yourself a 1 in 20 chance of making an error Type 2 too stringent a p level means we may miss something

Watch the Type 1+2 errors video

Task

In your own terms explain the difference between a type 1 and type 2 error

Refer to Pg 287 Type 1+2 errors

Task:
Why might researchers choose to use p0.01 in preference to p0.05?

Finished?
Check in with Mr Beech.

Re-vsit any clips you are less certain on.

Re-visit and test yourself on your schizophrenia cue cards.