Security-Market Indicator Series

Innovative Financial Instruments

Dr. A. DeMaskey

Chapter 5

Uses of Security-Market Indexes

As benchmarks to judge portfolio performance To develop an index portfolio To examine factors that influence aggregate security price movement To predict future price movement To compute systematic risk of an asset

Differentiating Factors in Constructing Market Indexes

The sample
size breadth source

Computational procedure
arithmetic average indexed geometric average

Weighting sample members

price-weighted series value-weighted series unweighted (equally weighted) series

Stock-Market Indicator Series

Price-Weighted Series
Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) Nikkei Average

Value-Weighted Series
NYSE Composite S&P 500 Index AMEX Index and more.

Unweighted Index
Value Line Financial Times Ordinary Share Index

Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA)

Best-known, oldest, most popular series Price-weighted average of thirty large well-known industrial stocks, leaders in their industry, and listed on NYSE Total the current price of the 30 stocks and divide by a divisor (adjusted for stock splits and changes in the sample)

Example of Change in DJIA Divisor When a Sample Stock Splits After Three-for One Before Split Split by Stock A Prices Prices 10 10 15 15 20 10 45 3 = 15 35 X = 15 X = 2.33 (New Divisor)

A B C

Demonstration of the Impact of Differently Priced Shares on a PriceWeighted Indicator Series

PERIOD T+ 1 Case A Case B 110 100 50 50 30 33 190 183 3 3 63.3 61 5.5% 1.7%
.

Period T A 100 B 50 C 30 Sum 180 Divisor 3 Average 60 Percentage Change

Criticism of the DJIA

Sample used is limited
30 non-randomly selected blue-chip stocks are not representative of the 1800 NYSE listed stocks

Price-weighted series
Stock split results in less weighting for sample stock Introduces a downward bias in DJIA by reducing weighting of fastest growing companies whose stock splits

Nikkei-Dow Jones Average

Arithmetic average of prices for 225 stocks on the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) Best-known series in Japan Price-weighted series formulated by Dow Jones and Company The 225 stocks represent 15 percent of all stocks on the First Section

Value-Weighted Series
Derive the initial total market value of all stocks used in the series
Market Value = Number of Shares Outstanding x Current Market Price

Assign a beginning index value (100) New market values are compared to the base index Automatic adjustment for splits Weighting depends on market value

Value-Weighted Series: Illustration

Consider the following three stocks: Stock Price No. of Shares Value (Million) ($Million) 2.0 2.5 1.0

40 100 60 200 Let this $200 million have an index value of 100.

June 30, 2000: A 20 B 40 C 60

Value-Weighted Series: Illustration Continued

Stock Price No. of Shares (Million) 2.0 5.0 1.0 Value ($Million) 48 150 60 258

June 30, 2001: A 24 B 30 C 60

(Note: Stock B split 2-for-1 during the year.)

Unweighted Price Indicator Series

All stocks carry equal weight regardless of price or market value. May be used by individuals who randomly select stocks and invest the same dollar amount in each stock. Some use arithmetic average of the percent price changes for the stocks in the index. Value Line and the Financial Times Ordinary Share Index compute a geometric mean of the holding period returns and derive the holding period yield from this calculation.

Global Equity Indexes

There are stock-market indexes available for most individual foreign markets. These are closely followed within each country. These are difficult to compare due to differences in sample selection, weighting, or computational procedure. Groups have computed country indexes.

FT/S&P-Actuaries World Indexes

Jointly compiled by The Financial Times Limited, Goldman Sachs & Company, and Standard & Poors in conjunction with the Institute of Actuaries and the Faculty of Actuaries. Measures 2,461 securities in 30 countries. Covers 70% of the total value of all listed companies in each country.

FT/S&P-Actuaries World Indexes

Includes actively traded medium and small corporations along with major international equities. Securities included must allow direct holdings of shares by foreign nationals. Index is market-value weighted with a base date of December 31, 1986 = 100.

FT/S&P-Actuaries World Indexes

Index results are reported in U.S. dollars, U.K. pound sterling, Japanese yen, German mark, and the local currency of the country included. Results are calculated daily after the New York markets close and published the following day in the Financial Times. Geographic subgroups are also published.

Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) Indexes

Three international, nineteen national, and thirty-eight international industry indexes
1,375 companies listed on stock exchanges in 19 countries with a combined capitalization representing 60% of the aggregate market value of the stock exchanges of these countries

All the indexes are market-value weighted Reporting is in U.S. dollars and the countrys local currency

Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) Indexes

Also provides:
price to book value (P/BV) ratio price to cash earnings (earnings plus depreciation) (P/CE) ratio price to earnings (P/E) ratio dividend yield (YLD)

The Morgan Stanley group index for Europe, Australia, and the Far East (EAFE) is used as the basis for futures and options contracts

Dow Jones World Stock Index

Introduced in January 1993 2,200 companies worldwide Organized into 120 industry groups Includes 33 countries Countries are grouped into 3 regions Represents over 80% of the combined capitalization of these countries Country indexes are computed in local currency, U.S. dollars, British pound, German mark, and Japanese yen

Comparison of World Stock Indexes

Correlations between the three series since December 31, 1991, indicate the results with the alternative world stock indexes are quite comparable.
FT - MS: FT - DJ: MS - DJ: U.S. Dollars .998 .997 .996

Bond-Market Indicator Series

Relatively new and not widely published Growth in fixed-income mutual funds increase need for reliable benchmarks for evaluating performance Many managers have not matched aggregate bond market return
increasing interest in bond index funds requires an index to emulate

Difficulties in Creating and Computing Bond-Market Indicator Series

Range of bond quality varies from U.S. Treasury securities to bonds in default Bond market changes constantly with new issues, maturities, calls, and sinking funds Bond prices are affected by duration, which is dependent on maturity, coupon, and market yield Correctly pricing individual bond issues without current and continuous transaction prices available

Investment-Grade Bond Indexes

Four investment firms maintain indexes for Treasury bonds and other investment grade (rated BBB or higher) bonds. Relationship among these bonds is strong (correlations average 0.95). Returns for all these bonds are driven by aggregate interest rates - shifts in the government yield curve.

High-Yield Bond Indexes

Non investment-grade bonds Four investment firms and two academicians created indexes Relationship among alternative highyield bond indexes is weaker than among investment grade indexes. Merrill Lynch Convertible Securities Indexes

Global Government Bond Market Indexes

Global bond market dominated by government issues Several indexes created by major investment firms:
Measure total rates of return Use market-value weighting Use trader pricing But sample sizes differ as do numbers of countries included

Global Government Bond Market Indexes: Analysis of Performance Differences affect long-term risk-return performance Low correlation among several countries is similar to stocks Significant exchange rate effect on volatility and correlations

Composite Stock-Bond Indexes

A composite series measures the performance of all securities in a given country. Allows examination of benefits of diversification with a combination of asset classes such as stocks and bonds

Merrill Lynch-Wilshire U.S. Capital Markets Index (ML-WCMI)

Market-value weighted index Measures total return performance of the combined U.S. taxable fixed income and equity markets Combination of Merrill-Lynch fixedincome indexes and the Wilshire 5000 common-stock index Tracks over 10,000 stocks and bonds

Brinson Partners Global Security Market Index (GSMI)

Includes:
U.S. stocks and bonds Non-U.S. equities Non-dollar bonds Allocation to cash

Matches a typical U.S. pension fund allocation policy Close to the theoretical market portfolio of risky assets referred to in CAPM

Comparison of Indexes Over Time

Correlations Among Monthly Equity Price Changes
Most differences are attributable to sample differences
Different segments of U.S. stock market or from different countries

Lower correlations between NYSE series and AMEX series or NASDAQ index than between NYSE alternative series (S&P 500 and NYSE composite)

Comparison of Indexes Over Time

Correlations Among Monthly Bond Indexes
Among investment-grade bonds correlations range from 0.90 to 0.99 Interest rates differ by risk premiums Rates of return are determined by systematic interest rate variables Low correlation in global returns to U.S. returns support global diversification

Comparison of Indexes Over Time

Mean Annual Stock Price Changes
Expect differences among price changes and measures of risk for various series due to the different samples.
NYSE series have lower rates of return and risk measure than AMEX and OTC series, as expected. Canadian results had higher average returns than NYSE and lower risk than NASDAQ. Japanese markets had lower returns and slightly lower volatility than U.S. market.

Comparison of Indexes Over Time

Mean Annual Stock Price Changes (continued)
United Kingdom (FT All-Share) had higher returns than NYSE indexes, but much larger variability Japanese markets experienced lower returns and slightly lower volatility than the U.S. markets

Low correlation between Japanese market with alternative U.S. stock-market indexes.
Japan could be a prime source of diversification

Comparison of Indexes Over Time

Annual Bond Rates of Return
Total rates of return for bond-market indexes cannot be directly compared to stock percentage price change results Expect difference in level of return due to differential risk premiums Results confirm expectations

The Internet: Investments Online

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