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crystal ball
Is M&A a good idea during this downturn?
1,000 US companies studied during (1982–99) that included the US recession of 1990 to
1991. Successful challengers, maintained greater appetite for acquisitions during
recession than the less successful former peers.
Source: Mckinsey Quarterly – 2002
Our analysis of more than 24,000 deals between 1996 and 2006 reveals that the
companies that acquired through the last downturn (2001 to 2002) generated almost
triple the excess returns of companies that made acquisitions during prior boom years
Source: Forbes.com, 2008
1. Frequent acquirers buy through economic cycles
2. M&A as a philosophy is aligned to a Company’s vision and strategic goals
Ram – HCL Tech 2
Current State of Industry…
• Global perspective
– Geo-political risk at the back of 26/11 incident in Mumbai
• IT Industry
– Challenges to grow revenues as significant dependence on US / UK
– Cut down in IT budgets by customers as most of the new projects are deferred
– Few of the companies are cash rich and will be under pressure to make best use of the cash
– Small-Mid players who are niche are hit badly by their over-dependence on few customers or vertical
• M&A
– Deal closure time has increased
– Expectation is that there would be quick turn around and most of the companies will test the 2006-07 highs
Time to have long term strategic view and best time to accelerate…
Ram – HCL Tech 3
Parameters that would drive M&A
Drop in number of deals during the first half of 2009 as compared to 2008
Timelines Longer time to close the deal due significant difference in Buyer & Seller price expectations
Company may more likely go for Earn out on agreed business plan than go for retention
Earn-out/ Incentives bonus
Only Key management / critical employees may be incentivised
Short term synergies need to be ruled out completely expect for small cost savings due to
Synergy Expectations consolidation of support staff
Prepare for long term growth story
Most of the transactions although value buys should be looked at from long-term
perspective; not to expect quick wins
Ram – HCL Tech 5
Take on next 12 months…
• Value buy’s or few bolt-on acquisitions would be flavor of the season and would be
expected to happen during the first half of the year; volumes may pick up during
• Few large deals but may be pushed to the second half of 2009
space, Platform based BPO, Internet (Online advertising, Social Networking) and
• See more of carve-out/ hive-off being done to tide over the credit crunch
• See more of Joint-Ventures to de-risk now but realize higher value during the up-turn
Small De-risking deals would be short term transactions; few large deals probably
may happen during the second half of 2009
Ram – HCL Tech 6
Key points…