GPS & Seismic Studies of

Episodic Tremor & Slip on the

Nicoya Peninsula, Costa Rica

Timothy H Dixon
MARGINS Lecturer
February/March 2009
 Observing Subduction Zone
Deformation
Seismology has been the traditional tool; limited to events with periods
shorter than a few hours (dynamic offset due to earthquake waves)
Ground-based geodesy (eg leveling) showed interseismic strain
accumulation, static offset due to earthquakes, & post-seismic deformation
(tool of choice until ~ 1990)
Space geodesy (InSAR, GPS) began in late 1980’s - early 1990’s
InSAR has excellent spatial resolution; good for co-seismic offset; time
resolution limited to repeat time of satellite orbit (several weeks - several
months)
Campaign style GPS also misses rapid time variation
 Observing slow slip events
Observation gap: deformation phenomena with
periods longer than a few hours (seismology)
and shorter than a few weeks or months (InSAR,
campaign GPS) could be missed
Maturing GPS technology allows installation of
Continuous GPS (C-GPS) networks; common in
last decade
Slow slip and other transient deformation
phenomena may be common in subduction
zones, perhaps plate boundaries
Well-documented in Cascadia, Japan, Mexico
High Precision Geodesy with GPS
Range to four or more
satellites specifies 3D
position + clock error
Use dual frequency to
make first order
ionosphere correction

Use precise phase and

pseudo- range data to
estimate range between
satellite and ground
point
Use geophysical models
to estimate and correct
major error sources
(orbits, troposphere,
tides)
Use global network to
 Background
Standard Seismic Cycle a Subduction Zone
Interseismic strain accumulation (slow)
What GPS records during
interseismic phase:

locke
d Downwarp, inland motion

Uplift

No motion

(Displacements reverse
during co-seismic phase)
slippe
d

Earthquake:
Coseismic offset (fast)
 Simple seismic cycle as observed by GPS
Position

Strain Accumulation
(“Interseismic”)
Position

Strain Accumulation
(“Interseismic”)

“Co-seismic”
 Seismic Cycle:
more nuanced view

First Interseismic
Co-seismic
Afterslip
Post-seismic
Next Interseismic (different velocity?)
(Aseismic Creep)
Strain accumulation vs Creep
 Creep can be stopped, Aseismic
it just takes more &
stronger curbs* Creep

*In the 2009

Stimulus Package
What is Episodic Tremor and Slip?

•A slow slip event (“ very slow earthquake”)

accompanied by seismic tremor
•May repeat at regular intervals (every few
months - every few years)
•A new class of Earth deformation
phenomenon, with characteristics
intermediate between standard earthquake
and aseismic creep
 Characteristics of Subduction
Episodic Tremor & Slip
Temporally
Fully Variable
Locked? Locking?
Fully Locked: Earthquakes
Temporally Variable Locking: ETS
Partially slipping all the time?
Fully slipping part of the time?
Observed in Cascadia,
Mexico, Japan
Recurrence Interval
– Identified in some regions
Depth Range
- deeper than standard
EQ
- may reflect frictional
properties, fluid flow or
thermal conditions
 ETS: Global Perspective
Cascadia Bungo Guerrero,
Channel, Mexico
Japan
Max slip @ 2-4 mm 3 cm Up to 6cm
surface
Inferred fault 2-3 cm 7-9 cm Several
plane slip faults
Depth of max 30-50 km 30-50 km > 30 km
slip
Duration 6-14 days 6 mo-1 yr 5-6 mo
Equivalent 6.4-6.8 6.7-7.0 7.1-7.5
magnitude
Source Dragert et al Ozawa et al Larson et al
2001 2001, 2004 2004, 2006
 Costa Rica Project Goals
Set up network of continuous GPS in “typical”
subduction zone (fast subduction, young crust,
frequent earthquakes)
Inspect data for phenomena that have so far
escaped attention, eg ETS events
Are ETS events common in Middle America
subduction zone?
How do their characeristics differ from other
subduction zones?
What can they tell us about subduction
earthquakes?
–Implications for Seismic Hazard
–Implications for Earthquake Process
 Costa Rica Geography

Nicaragua

Caribbean Plate
Co
st
a
R
ic
a

Panama

~8-9 cm

Cocos Plate

Embedded Animation
 Previous Work: Episodic GPS
Norabuena et al, 2004

Campaign data Spatial locking

1994-2000 patterns

Good Spatial Resolution; Poor Temporal Resolution

Are patches fully locked all the time?

2 Patches of Locking
Shallow Patch: centered at 14 km  Seismogenic
Deep Patch: centered at 39 km  Temporal Variation?
Why Build the Network Here?
ETS Event
observed Sept
2003
Duration 1
month
1.5 cm total slip
Only 3 stations
available; no
seismic tremor
recorded
 Deep Brace
~10 m depth
Monumentation
Short Brace
~2 m depth
- requires hard rock
Cement pillar
~ 2 m depth
– base for 5700 spike
mounts

Embedded Animation
Communication
Internet Communication
 Data Analysis
GIPSY precise point positioning
– Each station’s position is independently
determined
Ambiguity resolution
– East/West component
Baseline to MANA (Managua, Nicaragua)
to reduce common mode errors
– ~250 km North
 MANA: Records regional signal

Baselines Network Stations: Record local plus regional Signal

Subtract regional signal from network

stations to get “pure” local signal
 Transient Observed in May 2007
12 GPS, 10 seismic
stations operating
Most record event
GPS data are noisy

Embedded Animation
GPS Station Coverage
Seismic Tremor

Seismic Network Configuration

Borehole seismometers
(100 m)
Surface vault seismometers
(2-8 m)

Borehole Signal
Surface Vault Signal

Note: PNCB is the only site w/o signal

Embedded Animation
Temporal Coincidence of Tremor and Slip

Minutes of tremor per day measured by Nicoya Seismic Network

 Characterizing the Event
Atmospheric noise is high in the tropics
(humid, variable troposphere)
Challenge: extract meaningful signal in
presence of noise
V(t) = V0 + V*t + (U/2)*(tanh((t-T)/tau)-1)
(Larson et al. 2004)

t = Day of Year
V0 = intercept
V = adjusted background velocity
U = surface offset
Tau = duration of event
T = mid point of event

Embedded Animation
North 1.0 cm
Offset
Start May 7,
Time 2007
Duration 32 days
Interseismic velocity plus slow slip
displacement
Slip Inversion Results
Maximum Slip
16 cm

Depth
~25 km

Equivalent
Magnitude
M = 5.8

RMS
3 mm
Smoothing Tests
Observations vs. Predictions
 Inversion Results, Implications

Inversion:
16 cm of slip
30 km depth
MEquiv = 5.9

Transient slip patch “fills in” earthquake rupture geometry.

Will next EQ be smaller?
Implications for Earthquake cycle, slip budget
– Stress: More updip stress after ETS event (makes next
major earthquake more likely)

– ETS event fills in “slip gap” from the 1950 (Mw = 7.7)
event, meaning that the next earthquake could be smaller
than the 1950 event (would require that ETS events recur
every few years)

– Need to keep looking for next 3-4 years to understand

recurrence interval
 Costa Cascadia Bungo Guerrero,
Rica Channel, Mexico
Japan
Max slip @ 1.2 cm 2-4 mm 3 cm Up to 6cm
surface
Inferred 10 cm 2-3 cm 7-9 cm Several
fault plane faults
slip
Depth of 30 km 30-50 km 30-50 km > 30 km
max slip
Duration 30 days 6-14 days 6 mo-1 yr 5-6 mo
Equivalent ~6.0 6.4-6.8 6.7-7.0 7.1-7.5
magnitude
Source This study Dragert et al Ozawa et al Larson et al
2001 2001, 2004 2004, 2006
 Future

3 new stations (gives~

25 km average spacing
Upgrade rcvrs, comms
–Faster data recovery
2 new reference stations
(back arc) for better
baseline quality
Model time dependant
strain
 Conclusions
There was an ETS event beginning May
13, 2007 captured by at least 8 stations of
the new Nicoya CGPS network.
The ETS event occurred deeper than a
previously observed locked patch offshore
Costa Rica
May have implications for the size of the
next earthquake (more info in recurrence
innterval needed)
Acknowledgements

NSF-MARGINS, I&F
UNAVCO
OVSICORI

Thank you!
Back Up
Seismic Equipment
Ambiguity Resolution: Ambizap
(Blewitt, 2006)

WRMS
Decreases

.1

.9

.7
Monument Type WRMS Range (North)
Concrete Pillar 2.8-3.8
Short Brace 2.3-3.9
Deep Brace 3.1-3.5
Monument Type WRMS Range (East)
Concrete Pillar 4.6-5.7
Short Brace 4.0-5.2
Deep Brace 4.7-4.9
Monument Type WRMS Range (Vertical)
Concrete Pillar 8.4-10.7
Short Brace 8.4-9.6
Deep Brace 9.2-10.4
 Costa Rican Subduction zone

19
earthquake history

92
M
s=
7.
2
,M
w
=
7.

19
7

50 M
19

M =7
1 6

= .2
7.
19 = M
19

7
78 7.0 =
M00
Nicaraguan sm
“Tsunami Earthquake” oo 19

7.
9
M 0 199
(very slow rupture causing a th

1
=6 6
.2 M=
6. 2 1974
discrepancy in magnitudes) cr M=
u st
19
39
6 .2
194
1 M=
7.3
M 199
= 9
198
6 3
. M=
M 6.5
Magnitude: 9
190 6
=
4M
. =7.
6.0-6.9 se 9 1
am
7.0-7.5 l
Q ade o u Co
> 7.5 Pl uep n nt Ri co
at o dg s
ea s e
1 second = 10 yrs u
Embedded Animation