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PRIMARY ENERGY

RESERVES, GLOBAL
WARMING, FOSSIL FUEL
SUBSTITUTION,
ENVIRONMENT
POLLUTION AND
PROTECTION, NUCLEAR
AND RENEWABLE
ENERGY PERSPECTIVE


Course 1 - 2014
Primary energy resources
Definition:
Primary energy should be used to
designate those sources that only
involve extraction or capture, with or
without separation from contiguous
material, cleaning or grading, before
the energy embodied in that
source can be converted into heat
or mechanical work.
Secondary energy should be used to
designate all sources of energy that
results from transformation of primary
sources
Primary energy resources
Coal, natural gas, and oil accounted for 87% of global primary energy
consumption in 2012, as the growth of worldwide energy use continued to slow
due to the economic downturn. The relative weight of these energy sources keeps
shifting, although only slightly. Natural gas increased its share of energy
consumption from 23.8 to 23.9% during 2012, coal rose from 29.7 to 29.9%, and
oil fell from 33.4 to 33.1%. The International Energy Agency predicts that by 2017,
coal will replace oil as the dominant primary energy source worldwide.
The shale revolution in the United States is reshaping global oil and gas markets.
The United States produced oil at record levels in 2012 and is expected to
overtake Russia as the worlds largest producer of oil and natural gas combined in
2013. Consequently, the United States is importing decreasing amounts of these
two fossil fuels, while using rising levels of domestic natural gas for power
generation. This has led to price discrepancies between the U.S. and European
natural gas markets that in turn have prompted Europeans to increase their use of
coal power. Coal consumption, however, was dominated by China, which in 2012
for the first time accounted for more than half of the worlds coal use.
Global natural gas production grew by 1.9% in 2012, dominated by the United
States (with 20.4 % of the total) and Russia (17.6%). Other countries accounted
for less than 5% each of global output.
Drivers of energy change
The world around us has changed significantly over the past 20 years. The following
principal drivers have been shaping energy supply and use:
sharp increase in the price of oil since 2001 after 15 years of moderate oil prices
financial crisis and slow economic growth with drastic reduction in energy consumption
in large economies
shale gas in North America
Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident
The volatile political situation in the energy supplying countries in the Middle East and
North Africa, The Arab Spring
lack of global agreement on climate change mitigation
collapse of CO2 prices in the European Emissions Trading System
exponential growth in renewables, in particular in Europe due to generous subsidies for
producers which can become a problem instead of an opportunity
deployment of smart technologies
energy efficiency potential still remaining untapped
growing public concerns about new infrastructure projects, including energy projects and
their
impact on political decision-making process
Primary
energy
resources
Primary energy resources
China, then India, drive the growing dominance of
Asia in global energy demand & trade
Technology is opening up new oil resources, but
the Middle East remains central to the longer-term
outlook
Regional price gaps &
concerns over
competitiveness are here to
stay, but there are ways to
react with efficiency first in
line
The transition to a more
efficient, low-carbon energy
sector is more difficult in
tough economic times, but
no less urgent
Primary energy resources
Primary energy resources
Global warming concerns
Global warming and
climate change refer to
an increase in average
global temperatures.
Natural events and
human activities are
believed to be
contributing to an
increase in average
global temperatures.
This is caused primarily
by increases in
greenhouse gases
such as Carbon
Dioxide (CO2).

A warming planet thus
leads to a change in
climate which can
affect weather in
various ways.
What Are The Main Indicators Of Climate
Change?
Changes in temperatures
It is certain that global mean
surface temperature has
increased
since the late 19th century .
Each of the past three
decades has been
successively warmer at the
Earths surface than any the
previous decades in the
instrumental record, and the
decade of the 2000s has
been the warmest. The
globally averaged combined
land and ocean temperature
data as calculated by a
linear trend, show a
warming of 0.85
[0.65 to 1.06] C, over the
period 18802012
Greenhouse effect ?
The term greenhouse is used in
conjunction with the phenomenon
known as the greenhouse effect:
Energy from the sun drives the
earths weather and climate, and
heats the earths surface;
In turn, the earth radiates energy
back into space;
Some atmospheric gases (water
vapour, carbon dioxide, and other
gases) trap some of the outgoing
energy, retaining heat somewhat
like the glass panels of a
greenhouse;
These gases are therefore known
as greenhouse gases;
The greenhouse effect is the rise in
temperature on Earth as certain
gases in the atmosphere trap energy.
Six main greenhouse gases are carbon dioxide
(CO2), methane (CH4) (which is 20 times as
potent a greenhouse gas as carbon dioxide)
and nitrous oxide (N2O), plus three fluorinated
industrial gases: hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs),
perfluorocarbons (PFCs) and sulphur
hexafluoride (SF6).
Carbon dioxide cycle
Many of these greenhouse gases are
actually life-enabling, for without them,
heat would escape back into space and the
Earths average temperature would be a lot
colder.
However, if the greenhouse effect
becomes stronger, then more heat gets
trapped than needed, and the Earth might
become less habitable for humans, plants
and animals.
Carbon dioxide, though not the most potent
of greenhouse gases, is the most
significant one. Human activity has caused
an imbalance in the natural cycle of the
greenhouse effect and related processes.
Greenhouse gases are essential for our planet; the planet may be able to deal with
slightly increased levels of such gases, but too much will affect the health of the whole
planet. Other difference between the natural carbon cycle and human-induced climate
change is that the latter is rapid. This means that ecosystems have less chance of
adapting to the changes that will result and so the effects felt will be worse it things
continue along the current trajectory.
Human impact on climate
change
Doesnt Recent Record Cold
Weather Disprove Global Warming
?
In different parts of the world, there
have been various weather events that
at first thought would question global
warming. For example, some regions
have experienced extremely cold
winters (sometimes record-breaking),
while others have experienced heavy
rain, etc.

The confusion that sometimes arises is
the difference between climate change
and weather patterns. Weather
patterns describe short term events,
while climate change is a longer
process that affects the weather. A
warming planet is actually consistent
with increasing cold, increasing rain
and other extremes, as an overall
warmer planet changes weather
patterns everywhere at all times of the
year.
Energy security
Energy security is the association between national security and the
availability of
natural resources for energy consumption. Access to cheap energy has
become
essential to the functioning of modern economies. However, the uneven
distribution of
energy supplies among countries has led to significant vulnerabilities.
Renewable energy resources
and significant opportunities for
energy efficiency exist over wide
geographical areas, in contrast to
other energy sources, which are
concentrated in a limited number
of countries. Rapid deployment of
renewable energy and energy efficiency,
and technological diversification of energy
sources, would result in significant energy
security and economic benefits.
Fossil fuels depletion?
Fossil fuels will remain the most important energy source, at least until 2030, and the use of
oil, gas and coal is expected to grow in volume over this period. Coal is not scarce, but is
problematic for pollution and climate change reasons.
The production costs of oil continue to rise with the expansion of the share of deepwater
exploration in the supply. Although coal and gas are abundantly available, environmental and
logistical reasons prevent a substantial shift away from oil to these energy sources.
Fossil fuel reserves are concentrated in a small number of countries. 80 % of the coal
reserves are located in just six countries; the European Union (EU) has 4 % of the global
stock. The EU share of the worlds gas reserves decreased from 4.6 % in 1980 to 1.3 % in
2009. These reserves are expected to be exhausted before 2030. More than half of the
global stock is found in only three countries: Iran, Qatar and Russia (24 % in 2009), which is
a major gas supplier for the EU. Ten countries
(of which eight are OPEC members) have 80 % of the worlds oil reserves. Some of these
countries may exercise their power to restrict supply or influence the price. EU dependence
on imported fossil fuels is slowly rising and presently amounts to about 55 %. Some EU
countries
(for instance Estonia, Italy, France and Sweden) have sizeable oil shale stocks.
Reduced foreign supply may encourage them to exploit these sources.
The Arctic region is expected to contain a substantial amount of oil, probably
up to 90 billion barrels.
Will fossil fuel reserves be effectively depleted by
2050?
Fossil fuels play a crucial role in the world energy market. The world's energy market worth
around 1.5 trillion dollars is still dominated by fossil fuels. The World Energy Outlook (WEO)
2007 claims that energy generated from fossil fuels will remain the major source and is still
expected to meet about 84% of energy demand in 2030. There is worldwide research into
other reliable energy resources to replace fossil fuel, as they diminish; this is mainly being
driven due to the uncertainty surrounding the future supply of fossil fuels. It is expected,
however, that the global energy market will continue to depend on fossil fuels for at least the
next few decades.
World oil resources are judged to be sufficient to meet the projected growth in demand until
2030, with output becoming more concentrated in Organization of Petroleum Exporting
Countries on the assumption that the necessary investment is forthcoming. According to WEO
2007 oil and gas supplies are estimated to escalate from 36 million barrels per day in 2006 to
46 million barrels per day in 2015, reaching 61 million barrels per day
by 2030. In addition, oil and gas reserves
are forecast at about 1300 billion barrels
and 6100 trillion cubic feet in 2006,
Respectively. The World Energy Council
in 2007 estimated recoverable coal reserves
of around 850 billion tonne in 2006.
Fossil fuels reserves trend
Fossil fuel reserve trends tend to mainly depend on two important parameters: consumption
and price. It was projected that energy consumption will increase at an average rate of 1.1%
per annum, from 500 quadrillion Btu in 2006 to 701.6 quadrillion Btu in 2030. Currently, the
growth in world energy consumption is approximately 2% per annum. In terms of global
consumption, crude oil remains the most important primary fuel accounting for 36.4% of the
world's primary energy consumption (without biomass). The International Energy Agency
(IEA) claims oil demand as the single largest consumable fossil fuel in the global energy
market will fall from 35% to 32% by 2030. Coal is the second largest consumable fossil fuel
relative to the three main fossil fuels; in part largely due to consumption over the past couple
of years. According to WEO 2007, coal is seen to have the biggest increase in demand in
absolute terms, jumping by 73% between 2005 and 2030. Coal accounted for about 28% of
global primary energy consumption in 2005; surpassed only by crude oil (BGR, 2007).
Reserves of gas in comparison to oil and coal will moderately increase for the next two
decades, from 21% to 22%. Although other energy resources are expanding in the world, the
rate of fossil fuel consumption for energy will also continue to increase through to 2030.
The next important issue after global consumption of fossil fuels is fossil fuel price movement.
Proven fossil fuel reserves will fluctuate according to economic conditions, especially fossil
fuel prices. In other words, proven reserves will shrink when prices are too low for fossil fuels
to be recovered economically and expand when prices deem fossil fuels economically
recoverable. In addition, the trend of fossil fuel prices significantly affects fossil fuel
consumption. On the other hand, fossil fuel price fluctuations affect other variables such as
international inflation, global GDP growth, etc. Consequently, the size of fossil fuel reserves
depends on their prices.
Curent energy scenario
Nuclear versus renewable
Nuclear power is back in fashion, touted as a pain-free solution to
climate change and looming energy shortages. Does its claims
really add up?
Nuclear power has been promoted as the answer to both climate change and energy insecurity.
It is neither As a response to global warming, it is too slow, too expensive, too limited and in
an age of terrorist threats, it is more of a security risk than a solution.
Why we need renewables now !
There are three major reasons why a rapid uptake of renewable energy is now vital for the UK.
First, climate change means we need to drastically reduce our reliance on fossil fuels. Under
the Kyoto Protocol, were already committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 12.5%
by 2012, compared with 1990 levels. Without a massive increase in renewable energy (and a
major improvement in energy efficiency), these targets will be impossible to meet.
Secondly, one of the greatest unacknowledged threats to the world economy is the imminent
peak of global oil production, which is set to send already high oil prices much higher still,
creating a severe economic shock of large but unpredictable proportions.
Thirdly, world current stock of nuclear power stations is ageing and will progressively close over
the coming two decades.
Prospects of renewable
The future of renewable energy is fundamentally a
choice, not a foregone conclusion given technology
and economic trends. The context for that choice
includes the present situationhigh levels of current
investment and more than a decade of dramatic
market growth, proliferation of support policies, and
cost reductions for renewable energy. The context
also involves a growing diversity of motivations, such
as energy security, climate and environment, industrial
and economic development, financial risk mitigation,
flexibility, and resilience.
What are the options?
Conventional vehicles alone may not achieve EU CO
2

reduction goal for 2050
To conclude
Why Hydrogen ?
Hydrogen is the simplest element. An atom of hydrogen consists of
only one proton and one electron. It's also the most plentiful
element in the universe. Despite its simplicity and abundance,
hydrogen doesn't occur naturally as a gas on the Earth - it's always
combined with other elements. Water, for example, is a
combination of hydrogen and oxygen (H2O).
Hydrogen is also found in many organic compounds, notably the
hydrocarbons that make up many of our fuels, such as gasoline,
natural gas, methanol, and propane. Hydrogen can be separated
from hydrocarbons through the application of heat - a process
known as reforming. Currently, most hydrogen is made this way
from natural gas. An electrical current can also be used to separate
water into its components of oxygen and hydrogen. This process is
known as electrolysis. Some algae and bacteria, using sunlight as
their energy source, even give off hydrogen under certain
conditions.

Hydrogen is high in energy, yet an engine that burns pure hydrogen produces almost
no pollution. NASA has used liquid hydrogen since the 1970s to propel the space
shuttle and other rockets into orbit. Hydrogen fuel cells power the shuttle's electrical
systems, producing a clean byproduct - pure water, which the crew drinks.
Hydrogen energy ?
Hydrogen is not a primary energy source
like coal and gas. It is an energy carrier.
Initially, it will be produced using existing
energy systems based on different
conventional primary energy carriers and
sources. In the longer term, renewable
energy sources will become the most
important source for the production of
hydrogen. Regenerative hydrogen, and
hydrogen produced from nuclear sources
and fossil-based energy conversion
systems with capture, and safe storage
(sequestration) of CO2 emissions, are
almost completely carbon-free energy
pathways.
Hydrogen energy ?
The benefits of hydrogen and fuel cells are wide ranging, but will not be fully
apparent until they are in widespread use. With the use of hydrogen in fuel-cell
systems there are very low to zero carbon emissions and no emissions of harmful
ambient air substances like nitrogen dioxide, sulphur dioxide or carbon monoxide.
Because of their low noise and high power quality, fuel cell systems are ideal for
use in hospitals or IT centres, or for mobile applications. They offer high
efficiencies which are independent of size. Fuel-cell electric-drive trains can
provide a significant reduction in energy consumption and regulated emissions.
Fuel cells can also be used as Auxiliary Power Units (APU) in combination with
internal combustion engines, or in stationary back-up systems when operated with
reformers for on-board conversion of other fuels saving energy and reducing air
pollution, especially in congested urban traffic.
In brief, hydrogen and electricity together represent one of the most promising
ways to realise sustainable energy, whilst fuel cells provide the most efficient
conversion device for converting hydrogen, and possibly other fuels, into
electricity. Hydrogen and fuel cells open the way to integrated open energy
systems that simultaneously address all of the major energy and environmental
challenges, and have the flexibility to adapt to the diverse and intermittent
renewable energy sources that will be available in the Europe of 2030.
Hydrogen benefits !
Energy security and supply

Todays society depends crucially on the
uninterrupted availability of affordable fossil
fuels which, in future, will be increasingly
concentrated in a smaller number of countries
creating the potential for geopolitical and price
instability. Hydrogen opens access to a broad
range of primary energy sources, including
fossil fuels, nuclear energy and, increasingly,
renewable energy sources (e.g. wind, solar,
ocean, and biomass), as they become more
widely available. Thus, the availability and price
of hydrogen as a carrier should be more stable
than any single energy source. The introduction
of hydrogen as an energy carrier, alongside
electricity, would enable Europe to exploit
resources that are best adapted to regional
circumstances.
Hydrogen benefits !
Economic competitiveness
Since the first oil crisis in the 1970s,
economic growth has not been directly
linked with growth in energy demand in the
industrial sector, whereas in the transport
sector increased mobility still leads to a
proportionate increase in energy
consumption. Development and sales of
energy systems are also major components
of wealth creation, from automobiles to
complete power stations, creating
substantial employment and export
opportunities, especially to the
industrialising nations.
In the US and Japan, hydrogen and fuel
cells are considered to be core technologies
for the 21st century, important for economic
prosperity. There is strong investment and
industrial activity in the hydrogen and fuel
cell arena in these countries, driving the
transition to hydrogen independently of
Europe. If Europe wants to compete and
become a leading world player.
Air quality and health improvements
Improved technology and post-combustion
treatments for conventional technologies are
continuously reducing pollutant emissions.
Nevertheless, oxides of nitrogen and
particulates remain a problem in certain areas,
while the global trend towards urbanisation
emphasises the need for clean energy solutions
and improved public transport. Vehicles and
stationary power generation fuelled by hydrogen
are zero emission devices at the point of use,
with consequential local air quality benefits.

Greenhouse gas reduction
Hydrogen can be produced from carbon-free or
carbon-neutral energy sources or from fossil
fuels with CO2 capture and storage
(sequestration). Thus, the use of hydrogen could
eventually eliminate greenhouse gas emissions
from the energy sector. Fuel cells provide
efficient and clean electricity generation from a
range of fuels.