Академический Документы
Профессиональный Документы
Культура Документы
2. An inspector of the Alaska pipeline has the task of comparing the reliability
of two pumping stations. Each station is susceptible to two kinds of failure:
pump failure and leakage. When either (or both) occur, the station must be
shut down. The data at hand indicate that the following pbts prevail:
Station P (Pump failure) P (Leakage) P (Both)
1 0.07 0.10 0
2 0.09 0.12 0.06
Which station has the higher pbt of being shut down?
Pbts under conditions of Statistical
independence:
1. Conditional pbts:
If A and B are any two events then the
conditional pbt of B given that already the
event A happened is given by
P(AB)
P(B/A) =
P(A)
Similarly the conditional pbt of A given that
already the event B happened is given by
P(AB)
P(A/B) =
P(B)
2. Joint pbts: (Multiplication law of pbt)
If A and B are any two events then
Application
Prior New Posterior
of Bayes’
Probabilities Information Probabilities
Theorem
1.In a bolt factory machines A, B and C
manufactures respectively 25%,35% and
40% of the total output. Of their output 5%,
4%,2% are defective bolts. A bolt is drawn
from the output and is found to be
defective. What is the chance that it was
produced by machine B?
Let
E1 be the event of drawing a bolt at
random manufactured by the machine A
E2 be the event of drawing a bolt at
random manufactured by the machine B
E3 be the event of drawing a bolt at
random manufactured by the machine C
Let X be the event of its being defective
Prior pbts:
P(E1)=25%
P(E2)=35%
P(E3)=40%
Likelihood pbts:
P(X/E1)=5%
P(X/E2)=4%
P(X/E3)=2%
Additional information:
A defective bolt was selected from the
output.
To find the chance that it was produced by
machine B we apply the Bayes’ theotem and is
given by
P( Ei )P( X | Ei )
P( Ei | X ) =
P( E1 )P( X | E1 ) + P( E2 )P( X | E2 ) + ... + P( En )P( X | En )
P(E 2 )P(X | E2 )
P(E | X)=
P(E 1 )P(X | E1 )+ P(E 2 )P(X | E 2 )+ P(E )P(X | E3 )
2
3
(0.35)(0.04) 140 28
= = = = 0.4058
(0.25)(0.05) + (0.35)(0.04) + (0.40)(0.02) 345 69
Events Prior Conditional Joint Probabilities Posterior
Ei Probabilities P(Ei) Probabilities P(X|Ei) P(Ei ∩ X) Probabilities P(Ei |
X)