PRESENTER

ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF
PAKISTAN

PAKISTAN 21
st
CENTURY
IS PAKISTANS ECONOMY ON
THE VERGE OF COLLAPSE

Facts first
Economic indicators




GDP (purchasing power parity)

$514.6 billion (2012 est.)
$496.3 billion (2011 est.)
$481.7 billion (2010 est.)
note: data are in 2012 US dollars
GDP (official exchange rate)

$230.5 billion (2012 est.)
GDP - real growth rate

3.7% (2012 est.)
3% (2011 est.)
3.1% (2010 est.)
GDP - per capita (PPP)

$2,900 (2012 est.)
$2,800 (2011 est.)
$2,800 (2010 est.)
note: data are in 2012 US dollars
Continued



GDP - composition by sector

agriculture: 20.1%
industry: 25.5%
services: 54.4% (2012 est.)

Population below poverty line

22.3% (FY05/06 est.)

Labor force

60.36 million
note: extensive export of labor, mostly
to the Middle East, and use of child
labor (2012 est.)
Labor force - by occupation

agriculture: 45.1%
industry: 20.7%
services: 34.2% (2010 est.)



Unemployment rate

5.6% (2012 est.)
5.6% (2011 est.)
note: substantial underemployment
exists

Unemployment, youth ages 15-24 total: 7.7%
male: 7%
female: 10.5% (2008)

Household income or consumption by
percentage share

lowest 10%: 9.9%
highest 10%: 39.3% (FY07/08)

Distribution of family income - Gini
index

30.6 (FY07/08)
41 (FY98/99)


Investment (gross fixed)

10.9% of GDP (2012 est.)

Budget

revenues: $29.51 billion
expenditures: $44.19 billion (2012 est.)

Taxes and other revenues

12.8% of GDP (2012 est.)
Budget surplus (+) or deficit (-)

-6.4% of GDP (2012 est.)
Public debt

50.4% of GDP (2012 est.)
60.1% of GDP (2011 est.)

Inflation rate (consumer prices)

11.3% (2012 est.)
11.9% (2011 est.)


Agriculture - products

cotton, wheat, rice, sugarcane, fruits,
vegetables; milk, beef, mutton, eggs

Industries

textiles and apparel, food processing,
pharmaceuticals, construction materials,
paper products, fertilizer, shrimp

Industrial production growth rate

3% (2011 est.)

Current Account Balance

-$4.632 billion (2012 est.)
$268 million (2011 est.)



Exports

$24.66 billion (2012 est.)
$26.3 billion (2011 est.)

Exports - partners

US 15%, UAE 9.7%, Afghanistan 9.5%,
China 9.2%, UK 5%, Germany 4.5%
(2012 est.)

Imports

$40.82 billion (2012 est.)
$38.93 billion (2011 est.)
Imports - partners

UAE 17.2%, China 15%, Saudi Arabia
11.2%, Kuwait 8.9%, Malaysia 5.4%,
Japan 4.3% (2012 est.)


Reserves of foreign exchange and gold

$13.5 billion (30 November 2012 est.)
$18.09 billion (31 December 2011 est.)

Debt - external

$55.98 billion (31 December 2012 est.)
$58.27 billion (31 December 2011 est.)
Exchange rates

Pakistani rupees (PKR) per US dollar
95.1 (2012 est.)
86.3434 (2011 est.)
85.194 (2010 est.)
81.71 (2009)
70.64 (2008)
History, shows that Pakistan's economic trajectory, since
1947, has been erratic and inconsistent, and yet it has
escaped the fate of a failed state.

History at Glance
Immediately after Independence
Pakistan inherited one of the largest irrigation systems
a well-connected road and railway system
did not take advantage of existing provisions
de-capitalisation of resources.
only two textile mills and one cement plant by the British.


Ayub Khan's era
witnessed an average growth rate of 5.4 per cent 'Golden
Age'
the 'role model'
food prices stabilised

increase in public and private investments
seven families
91.6 per cent of private domestic deposits and
84.4 per cent of assets
widespread protests
downfall of the Ayub regime.

Zulfikar Ali Bhutto's (1972-77)
socialist policies
large scale nationalization
Popular belief is that nationalization harmed the economy
drastically
consequences similar to the previous government
expulsion of the Bhutto Government.


Zia ul-Haq's regime (1977-1988)
inflow of US aid
Soviet invasion of Afghanistan
$0.5 billion in 1978 to $3.2 billion in loans
remittances of close to $25 billion
increase in fixed investments from 15.5 to 16.77 per cent of
the GDP
Investments in textiles increased from 17.9 in 1977 to 37.4
in 1988
Average export growth rate also rose from 10.32 (1973-78)
to 14.33 per cent (1978-88)

Both democratic regimes of Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif
were burdened with multi-faceted pressures that included
debt servicing, reduced aid after the end of cold war, fall in
remittances after the Gulf boom of the 80's fizzled out,
restrictions after nuclear testing and serious law and order
crisis.

General Pervez Musharraf's regime
(1999-2008)
return of capital flow and workers'
remittances that were earlier absorbed into the black market
9/11 people
preferred to go through the official line
The U.S. invasion of Afghanistan
war led to huge inflow of foreign assistance
the exchange reserves hit $4 billion thereby stabilising the economy
The growth rate hit close to 8 per cent in 2005
moment of rejoicing was short-lived
consumption and imports (leading to 'overheat' of the economy

PPP led government (2008-2012)
inherited an economy in shambles
bad policy decisions of the past and the global financial crisis.
Spending on development
fixed investment took a back seat
The investment rate was 13.4 percent in 2011
supposedly the lowest the country had witnessed in 37 years
The Foreign Direct Investment also declined
fear of an 'imminent collapse'
highly unstable political environment
The 2010 floods
Conclusion
The present economic scenario
Fire-fighting measures
Tide over the energy crisis

THANK YOU
.