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MBAX 6100
Entrepreneurship and Small Business Management
Feasibility Plan Parts I & II
Auntie Carlas Frozen Bread Dough
March 20, 2007
Carla Ooyen & Masashi Tsuchiya
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Product Concept
Frozen Premium Bread Dough
The premium quality, flavor, and smell of homemade artisan bread without the hassle of
mixing, kneading and forming the dough.
Premium quality bread dough sold in the freezer section.
At home, the consume thaws, rises, and bakes.
Product will be made of natural or organic ingredients
Manufacturing will use old dough techniques for premium flavor
May offer unusual, specialty or holiday selections such as panettone, stollen, or Greek
Easter bread
May sell in an oven-safe, recyclable container for added baking convenience
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Market value projections in billions of $
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
$10.50 $11.10 $11.40 $11.70 $12.00 $11.40 $11.20 $11.20 $11.40 $11.50
Market value of all Bread and Roll retail sales in the World
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$145.7 billion in 2004 (2.4% growth in the past five years)
Market value of all Bread and Roll retail sales in the United States
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$13.5 billion in 2006 (1.3% growth in the past five years)
$14.1 billion projected by 2011
Downturn in 2004 due to low-carb diet trend, but market rebounding by 2005
Rhodes International reported in 2006 that sales of Rhodes frozen white bread dough are
increasing at 8% annually.
3
Bread market hit bottom in May 2004, demand is stronger now. Vice president of HomAde
Foods agrees sales of 2005 1
st
quarter have increased.
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The U.S. governments release of the revised food pyramid is reminding consumers of the
importance of whole grains in their diet.
5
Market for bread and related products has been and is expected to continue to be
almost flat for the next few years.
6
(Difference in figures from other market size data is due to different source of data)
Market Analysis Size and Growth
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Market Analysis - Trends
Increasing gourmet premium market
According to Fortune magazine
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, a gourmet bakery in Paris, Poilane, sells about $18 million annually, to 50
different countries, to celebrities like Robert De Niro and Steven Spielberg, and to three star French chef
Alaim Ducasse, who buys 5000 metric tons per year. Long distance distribution is done within 24 to 48 hours
by FedEx, with price ranging from $10 in Paris to $47 in the U.S.
Artisan bread market is increasing
By 2003 sales of premium breads totaled $933 million, or 16 percent of all bread sales, and were continuing to climb
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Artisan and specialty bread sales have increased 23% from 1998 to 2003.
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Specialty breads add cachet. People are looking for more sophisticated flavors
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Increasing need for convenience
Experts interviewed all agreed that consumers of natural & organic products were looking for more
convenience
Rhodes advertises convenience: They are both freezer-to-oven rolls that come in a re-sealable laminate bag.
They thaw, rise and bake in 30 minutes
11
5
Increasing market for healthy foods
Organic food is increasingly popular.
(Bread) is not surging quite as aggressively as other organic segments, its showing respectable growth.
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The consensus of the experts interviewed was that the Organic market is continuing to grow.
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Anti-allergy food (non sugar, gluten free, etc) is increasingly popular.
Gluten free, sugar free, allergy free bread will sell.
14
Whole grain bread is increasingly popular.
Whole grain bread market was slow in 2000 to 2003, however in 2004 sales increased 3.3% from previous years sales.
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In 2005, 73 new products were introduced with specialty grains such as spelt, buckwheat, kamut, quinoa, and pearl
barley.
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In 2006, wellness will again be one of the industrys top influences; the relationship between health and food
has become big business.the comeback of carbs will add fuel to the growing interest in breads
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Young mothers want to feed their babies better food.
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People are looking for natural version of everyday products.
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Market Analysis - Trends
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Industrial Bread and Artisan bread
Industrial bread
Mass produced bread
Mainly white bread
Frozen dough available
Artisan Bread
Bakery made rather than mass production
Premium gourmet bread
Organic, Sugar free, Gluten free, Allergy free
No frozen dough available
World Bread and Roll market in 2004
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Europe: $95.3 billion with artisan bread having a 60% share
The U.S: $13.1 billion with artisan bread having a 12% share
Asia-Pacific: $12.8 billion with artisan bread having a 30.5% share
Japan: $5.6 billion in 2006, which is about 48% of Asia-Pacific market, with artisan bread having a 20% share
India: $1.5 billion in 2006
China: $1.1 billion in 2006
Market Value of the U.S. Bread, Roll and Bun dough retail sales (Excluding in-store use such as
restaurant)
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Refrigerated market = $252.4 million in 2003
Frozen market = $443.0 Million in 2003
Market Analysis Market Segmentation
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Demographic 1: Bread consumer consumption of bread in 2003
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Penetration rate is more than 95% across all following segments
Number of loaves consumed weekly
45% of buyers purchase 1 loaf per week
31% of buyers purchase 2 loaves per week
12% of buyers purchase 3 loaves per week
Percentage of users by age group:
21% are 35 to 44
19% are 45 to 54
19% are 25 to 34
13% are 18 to 24
12% are 55 to 64
Bread consumers by gender:
52% of buyers are Female
48% of buyers are Male
Percentage of users by race/ethnic origin:
72% are White/non Hispanic
12% are Black
12% are Hispanic
4% are Asian
Bread consumption by region:
36% live in the South
23% live in the Midwest
22% live in the West
19% live in the Northeast
Market Analysis Demographics
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Demographics 2: White bread and Whole Grain bread
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White bread buyers tend to be:
Spanish, Hispanic
Young 18 to 34 years old
High school graduates
With children
Live in a rented property
Whole grain bread buyers tend to be:
55 years or older
College or Graduate school graduates
Retired
No children
Live in own home
Market Analysis Demographics
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Little growth in the bread market: currently between -3% to 3% per year
Raw material supply
Weather issues such as a drought could cause a raw ingredient shortage.
Possible insufficient ingredient supply. The demand for organic products is increasing faster than the supply
of raw ingredients.
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Economic downturns reduce the demand for premium products.
Market Analysis Threats
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Market Analysis - Market Structure
Retail route (major route)
Manufacturer (finished bread or dough)
Wholesaler
Retailer (sometimes bake from dough)
Consumer
In-store use
Manufacturer (finished bread or dough)
Wholesaler
Restaurant, Caf, Sandwich shop, etc.(sometimes bake from dough)
Consumer
Own-production (Bakery)
Manufacturer = Retailer (all process by retailer)
Consumer
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Opportunity
Market trend for premium bread needs
Huge world market for bread export opportunity
Higher share of artisan bread in Europe and Japan (than in the US)
Ocean freight = about $0.30/loaf
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Niches
No premium frozen bread dough in current bread market
Jason Vincent, Category Manager - Frozen Foods for Wild Oats, feels that there is a need for natural/organic
frozen bread dough and is surprised that no one has yet entered that niche. The long shelf life is a key
attractive characteristic. He feels the market is probably 2 to 3 units per week per store.
Adam Schneider, natural food broker, indicated that he could sell the hell out of a par-baked frozen bread
product.
Increasing market segment for premium bread.
Internet e-commerce
Other form of direct sales to consumers
Export opportunity
Market Analysis Opportunities & Niches
Market Analysis New Distribution Channels
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Market Analysis - Conclusion
Feasible, there is a niche!
No direct competitors no premium frozen bread dough manufactures exist currently.
Consumer interest is favorable - Increasing demand for healthy foods such as organic.
Consumers are looking for natural substitutes for everyday products.
Growth opportunity - The U.S. share for artisan bread is lower than most other developed
countries. As people get more health conscious and taste sensitive, the market will grow.
Export opportunity - Europe accounts for about 64% of world bread market. Japan accounts
for about 48% of Asia-Pacific bread market. Both countries with higher artisan bread share
than U.S.
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Competitive Analysis Industry Structure
Carrying Capacity
The bread industry is fairly slow growth (see Market Analysis section).
Frozen food section of grocery stores is limited in size. Securing space for a new product means
that an existing product looses space (or is no longer carried).
Must have a niche product that fills a customer need.
Frozen premium bread dough could gain space by fulfilling an unmet need.
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Degree of Stability
Fairly stable demand for bread from year to year. A staple of most peoples diets.
Seasonal variations in demand. Higher demand near holidays, such as
Thanksgiving, Christmas, Easter and Mothers Day.
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Diet trends, such as the Atkins low carb craze in the early 2000s, can have
a serious negative effect.
Complexity
Grocery industry generally requires working with suppliers, distributors, brokers, and retailers.
For local market entry, it is sometimes possible to avoid working with distributors or brokers.
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Selling in food service chain to restaurants would require same chain as grocery industry unless
sales market is only local.
Obtaining necessary health department and FDA approval can be complicated.
Industry Evolution
Bread industry as a whole is mature.
Organic food segment is in the later stages of the high growth phase. Retailers are starting to
see me-too products rather than new innovations.
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Organic growth opportunities are tied to convenience and replication of traditional (not-so-
healthy) products.
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Competitive Analysis Barriers to Entry
Economies of Scale
Large manufacturers
Receive discounts for buying ingredients in large volume. Power to affect supplier costs.
Marketing budgets are larger. Profits of large volume products can help support marketing and sales of
lower volume or introductory products.
Entry level companies
Lack of volume equates to higher ingredient costs.
Marketing costs cannot be spread over product line.
Customer Loyalty
Because there is currently no retail frozen premium bread dough, customers would currently
have no brand to be loyal to. First entry advantage might deter customers from switching brands if
a new competitor entered the market.
If a known baked bread brand, such as Rudis, were to enter the market, customers would be
more likely to buy known over unknown.
Loyalty to baked breads brand could deter customers from switching to frozen dough option.
Proprietary
Recipes competitors may not be able to replicate that customer-winning flavor.
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Competitive Analysis Barriers to Entry
Capital Requirements
Building a manufacturing facility from scratch is costly. For example, a 18x24x12 freezer space
would cost about $90K for parts and installation.
30
Copackaging agreements with licensed manufacturers are a means of avoiding the necessity to
build a factory.
Unused capacity can be rented from manufacturers or restaurateurs (approximately $10 to
$14/hour).
31
This is a low capital way for a small company to test the business concept without
major investment.
Cold storage facilities, such as Atlas Cold Storage, offer storage and inventory management,
thus reducing the need for on-site freezer space.
Cold storage freight services alleviate need for company purchase of refrigerated truck fleet.
Access to distribution channels
Must convince retailers and distributors to carry your product. They may not be interested in
dealing with small manufacturers.
Do not have direct access to customer if using standard distribution channels.
Government Regulation
Must follow state and local Department of Health commercial food safety requirements (cant
start a food business in your garage).
Must register with the FDA and follow food labeling guidelines.
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Competitive Analysis Degree of Rivalry
Price point issues
Variety of entrants in bread market means that price comparison is inevitable.
Premium, natural, and organic breads generally sell in the range of $3-$5 for a 1 pound loaf of
bread.
If frozen bread dough is priced significantly above baked options, consumers will substitute.
Rivalry is somewhat friendly. Competitors provide coupons and promotions to
encourage consumers to purchase their produce, but price wars are not an issue.
Big manufacturers, such as Pillsbury or Wonder, that have the power to squish
competition wouldnt be interested in a small niche market like frozen premium bread
dough.
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Competitive Analysis Major Competitors
There are no direct competitors in the premium frozen bread dough category, so we focus
on indirect competitors. Key indirect competitors include:
Frozen traditional bread dough
Rhodes International - frozen loaves in white or wheat. The white bread compares to a
traditional sandwich loaf little flavor, soft texture.
Frozen pre-baked traditional
Pillsbury Oven Baked Crusty French Mini Loaves a household brand name producing an
extremely average convenience bread product.
Frozen pre-baked natural or organic
Alexia - frozen baked artisan bread rolls. Known for producing a quality product.
Fresh natural or organic
Rudis Organic Bakery produces a wide array of certified organic breads, primarily sandwich
style.
Grocery bakeries
Grocery bakeries produce a large variety of fresh baked breads of varying qualities. Natural food
grocers generally produce a higher quality product.
See the Competition Matrix in Appendix 2 for a detailed comparison of competitors.
Possible Future Competitors:
Current baked bread manufacturers could easily produce a frozen dough product. Its really just a
matter of making slight modifications to production and packaging.
Food service companies, such as Bridgford, Ralcorp Frozen Bakery Products, and Richs, produce
frozen dough or par-baked bread and could fairly easily offer a retail product.
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Competitive Analysis - Competitor Self Perception
Rhodes Bake-N-Serv
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Enjoy hot, homemade quality white bread fresh from
your own oven. Available in three or five loaves per
package. Just thaw, let rise, & bake!
Family owned company committed to quality
Rudis Organic Bakery
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Our Mission is to be the leading manufacturer and
supplier of branded certified organic breads. We are
dedicated to the highest standards of quality, taste,
packaging and communications. We are committed to the
families we serve and look to bring warmth, sincerity, joy
and a higher quality of life to our people, our customers
and the world.
Alexia
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Alexia