Quantification of Uncertainty of

Geometallurgical Variables in
Mine Planning Optimisation
Exequiel Sepulveda
School of Civil, Environmental and Mining Engineering
Supervisors: Peter Dowd and Chaoshui Xu
Outline
Background
Literature review
Gaps
Aims
Conclusion
Problem
Main cause of mine
projects failure:
Real production is far of
estimated production

Diagnostic:
Unrealistic mine planning
Sources: www.hostpph.com & smallbussines.com
Background
Expected
Reality
What (ore-waste
discrimination)
When (scheduling)
Where (processing)

Under technical,
operative and
economic restrictions
Mine Planning
Background
Source: www.im-maining.com
Planning Optimisation
Extraction
sequence
Layouts:
Open pit
Underground
Criteria:
Maximising NPV
Minimising deviation
on production
targets


Source: www.womp-int.com
Background
3D discretisation
Many small
blocks
Each block
represents many
features
Quality
Quantity
Metallurgical
response

Resource Model
Background

0,

,

max

(1 +)

iB

Goal: maximising profit
for all blocks
Quantity
Quality
Processing
recovery
Price
Mining cost
Optimisation
Formulation
Background
Economi
c value of
block i
Processing
cost
(Newman et al. 2010)
Literature Review
Uncertainty sources
Financial
Geological
Metallurgical
Risk analysis

(Dowd, 1994; Dimitrakopoulos,
1998)

Source: www.ni.com
Financial
Price, Costs
Foreign interchange
rates
Statistical distributions
Historical (Grobler, Elkington &
Rendu, 2011)
Lognormal (Amankwah, Larsson
& Textorius, 2013)
Wiener process (Evatt,
Soltan & Johnson, 2012)


Uncertainty Sources
Literature Review
Source: www.agmetalminer.com
Geological
Grades (quality)

Spatial correlation
Geostatistical
simulations
Better quantification
of uncertainty
(Dowd 1994; Dimitrakopoulos 1998)
Source: www.petrowiki.org
Uncertainty Sources
Literature Review
Metallurgical
Recovery
Rock type
Can be simulated
(Suazo, Kracht and Alruiz,2010)

They are not included
in current research

Uncertainty Sources
Literature Review
Source: ageofempiresonline.wikia.com
Monte Carlo
simulations
Distributions
of Net Present
Value
Risk Assessment
Literature Review
(Dowd, 1994)
Stochastic
optimisation
Probability
distributions
Objective function
Restrictions


(Lagos et al., 2011; Amankwah, Larsson &
Textorius, 2013)


Source: www.sciencedirect.com
Risk Assessment
Literature Review
Real option
valuation
Static NPV
Without flexibility
With flexibility
Risk Assessment
Literature Review
(Dimitrakopoulos & Abdel Sabour, 2007).
Gaps
Geometallurgical
features
Underground
mines
Mine complexity

Gaps
(1) Key geometallurgical features are
missed, fixed or predefined
Rock types
Recovery
Hardness
Gaps
(2) Underground
mines
Several methods
Block location
change
Fracturing
modelling
Source:
www.technology.infomine.com
Gaps
(3) Mine
Complexity
Multi source
Multi process
Stockpiles
Source: www.minesight.com
Aims
Quantification of
uncertainty of
geometallurgical
variables
Grades
Rock types
Recovery
Aims
New optimisation
formulations
Stochastic
optimisation
Multi-objective
optimisation
Mine complexity


Aims
Efficient algorithms
Meta-heuristic algorithms
Near-to-optimal
Fast computing
Handle realistic problems

Conclusion
Geometallurgical variables can improve
risk assessment
Complexity (real word)
Better tools for decision makers

Quantification of Uncertainty of
Geometallurgical Variables in
Mine Planning Optimisation
Exequiel Sepulveda
School of Civil, Environmental and Mining Engineering
Supervisors: Peter Dowd and Chaoshui Xu